This Really Happened

30-60. I am in the big blind with Tc-9c. UTG limps. Next player limps. All fold to cut-off, a solid but unimaginative player, who raises. Small blind calls. I call. UTG, somewhat on tilt, re-raises. Next player calls both raises. Cut-off caps (4-bet limit). Small blind calls. I call. Both original limpers call. Five players, $600 pot.


Flop is a 2+2 classic: Ad-7c-6c. Small blind checks. I had to bet (so Mason wouldn't chastize me and so Jim Brier would). UTG raises. Second limper folds, Cut-off reraises. Small blind folds. I call. UTG caps. Cut-off calls and I call. Three players, $960 pot.


Turn is 2h making board Ad-7c-6c-2h. I check. UTG bets and Cut-off raises. I call. UTG calls. Three players, $1320 pot.


River is. . . Kc! I bet my flush. UTG has only 4 chips left, thinks forever and folds! (He must have wanted to save some money for some fruit plates, although he pissed the $40 away the next hand.) Cut-off calls disgustedly and I beat his pocket Aces with my flush.


All comments on my play on all streets appreciated.

On the flop there is a HUGE difference between what you have here and the infamous Ten-Nine problem. You have not only a gutshot straight draw with any eight but a flush draw as well. This is 12 outs with two cards to come. You are almost even money to make a straight or a flush by the river and you will be going to the river with this hand. You are actually betting for value with this hand. Your play was good.


P.S: "a solid but unimaginative player". Now where have I heard that before?

Math question. We know Andy had 12 outs (actually 11 on the turn, gotta figure a set is in the mix somewhere and the Ac is probably already in play), but is there any way of valuing a "super-out" like the 8c? Does the possibility of having an immortal out make the hand more valuable?

I doubt if betting or checking the flop makes much difference, so the main thing you did right was to catch that club on the river. Woo Hoo!

Well Andy ---there is hope for you after all :-)


That's exactly how I would have played the hand!

If you snag one of your ten "mortal" outs the trip Aces has 10 outs to beat you at 23% of the time. This makes each "mortal" out worth about 23% less than your "immortal" out.


When you account for the huge put you'll win in this scenario, and the fact that you beat bigger flush draws and the fact that you are protected against runner-runner, this one out is worth about twice what the others are worth.


So count your straight-flush card as two outs. That's just my first stab at it and hope someone else comments.


- Louie

"a solid but unimaginative player". Now where have I heard that before?


From someone whose writing is solid but unimaginative.


:-)

Yeah, you're right, and the correct club at that. One that paired the board would have been a bad play.

There are times when there isn't much of a decision to make on the river. Or rather when hoping for a card is the only thing on your mind because either you win with that card or you lose if it doesn't come.


I ended up +$843 for the session, so it also shows, as Jim as often pointed out, how luck factors into short-run results.


If I can play some of 'em like you, there is indeed hope for me!


Regards,

Andy

I'd check the flop here. There is basically zero chance of your bet winning the pot so its really just a value bet. You want to try and get a lot of money in on the flop here, but IMO you want to try and get it in against as many players as possible. By betting out, you are more likely to shut out the second limper. Not that he likely has anything worth calling, but you want to figure out how get some money in the flop from as many players as possible here and give him every opportunity to put money in on this flop. Also now there's the chance for the button to 3-bet here. This will probably shut out the small blind, but I think you want to at least give him a chance to call the flop, even though its probably unlikely.


Just my 2 cents.


-ActionBob

Great Post Andy. Keep the hand posts coming. The are always instructional as well as entertaining!


Rob

One of the reasons for betting the flop is so that if a 9 or T comes on the river, you maximize your chance of winning the pot. I agree, though, that the chance of someone not having an Ace given all the preflop actions was basically nil and it was virtually 100% that I was going to be raised.

There are times when betting out is correct for exactly the reason you state. This hand IMO is certanly not one of those times. This is not to say the bet is incorrect, but I cant see it being correct for that particular reason.


Just my 2 cents.


-ActionBob

I have to correct you here. Did you read this "someone"'s most recent column? It was neither solid nor imaginative. [Brief summary: he cold-called a raise with AQ off, flop came jack high, preflop raiser bet and he folded -- because sometimes you gotta know when to fold 'em.].