Was it worth it?

3 limpers to me and I limp on button with Kc8c. Both blinds join the party also.


The final board is Ks Ah 3c 4c 4s, in that order.


When the flop was checked to me I decided to bet. Mainly because SB would bet with virtually any piece of the flop, and the 2 on my right would bet any K or A when checked to. So IMO only BB and EP limper to worry for check-raise.


BB check-raises, cut-off cold calls (uh?), I call.


At this point I put Bb certainly on an ace, but he could have any ace. Cut-offs cold call really makes no sense to me. As said I would have expected him to bet any K or A, and also 33. But he is a kinda weak player, so he might call with a gutshot broadway, but I'm not sure where he stands ATM.


On the turn BB bet, cut-off folded (JT QT QJ?) and I raised. I didnt know to much about BB, but he seemed reasonably tight and I might get him to laydown a weak ace. I was not sure however, but should I? Since any K 8 or flushcard prolly is good, he only needed to laydown a fraction of the times, right?


But he called and river went check-check.


Comments?


Regards

It's a risky raise, of course, but often it will achieve exactly what you got-- a "free" showdown when neither of you improve on the river. I don't know if I would do it if I didn't have a good read on my opponent though. If I don't know a player, I assume he won't lay down Aces until I get information to the contrary.

Well, you're certainly not going to fold now that you've picked up a flush draw, so with a raise you might A) win the pot right there; B) cause him to call if you improve on the river because of the size of the pot; C) check the river so that you get to the showdown, as you did.


Looks like he has an Ace though, although were I him I would bet my Ace on the river once a flush did not come and the board paired. (You can't have A-K since you didn't raise pre-flop and he can now beat A-3 or K-3. plus his weak kicker has now become a king kicker.)

On the flop, despite all the checking, I still think it is bad poker to be leading into a crowd of five other players with your middle pair, no kicker hand and backdoor flush draw. This is especially true with an ace-high flop. You should check and take a free card. The free card has great utility for you since you are the last to act. Not unexpectedly you get check-raised and now have to spend two bets to take off a card when you could have seen the turn for free. You state that the big blind could have any ace. Not necessarily. With any ace he might have led at the flop instead of check-raising. The check-raise could mean a big ace or something more. I don't like your turn raise because your opponent showed strength by check-raising you on the flop and leading into you on the turn so you have little chance of winning the pot outright by raising. You could even get reraised.


I think you lost about four extra bets on this hand that you did not have to lose.

First, I had doubt about my flopbet myself, but to call it bad poker is an exaggeration IMO, but I could be wrong. Since I strongly believed only BB or EP to worry for for a check-raise (I was 99,99% sure about SB...he probably never even heard of check-raise), and I couldnt believe late position players would "deep-check" a K or A here, so it was 2 people out of 5 for a possible check-raise. Wouldnt it then be good to bet, because for the small bet I invested I would know almost exactly if I was beat or not?

Problem with checking is that, in this game, I have about a 100% certainty to get bet into on the turn (most likely by our SB, truly a terrible player), and I might be folding te best hand. I dont think it's that bad to invest 1 SB in a 6 SB pot to know where you stand with about a less than 1/3th chance to get check-raised.


"I don't like your turn raise because your opponent showed strength by check-raising you on the flop and leading into you on the turn so you have little chance of winning the pot outright by raising. You could even get reraised. "


I dont think I would get re-raised (at least a very slim chance). The only possible hand for that would be AK IMO, and I'm not even so sure he would 3-bet with that. Pocket 3's would have bet out, AA KK would raise preflop. I dont see this player 3-betting turn with a weaker two pair than AK.


I agree that I have little chance of winning the pot outright. But I did some calculations, and he only has to fold more than 6,7% to make a raise more profitable than a call. This takes not factors as free showndown into account etc, but they might weigh out against factors as chance re-raise etc.


Regards

"I think you lost about four extra bets on this hand that you did not have to lose. "


I think you can't put it that way. For instance if he never lays down on the turn, calling would be more profitable but not by a whole big bet (because if you make your draw, you got a extra turn bet). And the way you would play it it's less likely you have a showndown. I suppose that you check flop, BB bets turn, you call, BB bets river, you (?). See that here again my play loses not a whole BB.


So we might disagree which play if preferable, but I certainly did not lose 4 extra bets here.


Regards

Although I tend to agree with Jim Brier in most poker matters I think that he has been too harsh on your play in this instance. Your thinking seems quite reasonable to me, especially since you have such a large draw on the turn. However you do need to be up against a very specific type of opponent, one who is aggressive enough to checkraise the flop with a weak ace (possibly less) but also tight enough to throw away this holding on the turn for a raise. Few opponents play there hands in such a fashion (even though it might be correct play /images/biggrin.gif ). Also I think you should consider your image before making a play like this if you have been bluffing frequently its probably not good.


But you definitely didn't loose an extra 4 bets expectation-wise than brier would have.


Shawn

Ikke played the hand exactly the way I would have. I like he raise on the turn. It seems to be the right play to me. Just my opinion.

I think you are right to suspect a weak Ace by BB since it would be difficult to bet into the field but once its checked around to the assertive button (who would obviously bet just about anything) raising makes a lot of sense. Heck, I think he should raise with any reasonable King. Most of my check-raises are weak rather than strong.


However, applying this principle to THIS player is the key to your turn raise. If THIS player needs a strong hand to check-raise then your turn raise was ill-advised; but as you suggest not by much.


Since you are obviously going to at least call the turn bet, I count 8bb in the pot which can be won for your 1bb raise. Please show your calculations that reduce this raw 12.5% shot (for a stone-cold bluff) down to "6.7%".


- Louie

"Please show your calculations that reduce this raw 12.5% shot (for a stone-cold bluff) down to "6.7%". "


I used that any flushcard and any king or eight would be good. So I would have 14 outs.


Lets x be the ratio he would fold.


Then EV when just calling his turn bet:


1) EV = (14/47)*7 - (33/47)*1 = 1 18/47


So I wanted that the EV for raising would be equal or better than that. EV raising:


2) EV = (1-x)((14/47)*8 - (33/47)*2) + 7*x


= -(46/47)x + 7x + (46/47)


1) = 2)


6 1/47 x = 19/47


x = 0,067 (so 6,7%, please show me where you think I'm wrong)


You also wrote: "...to the assertive button (who would obviously bet just about anything) raising makes a lot of sense."


So I can assume you would never bet in this case? How would you have played the turn if you checked the flop along?


Regards

I don't think Louie is saying that you should have checked the flop. He is just saying that it makes sense for the bb to checkraise you (the button) with a weak Ace or even a King. Of course, if he doesn't even have a weak king, he simply has to fold. Sine you don't know what he has, you should bet and put him to the test.


Like Louie, most of my checkraises are with weak hands than with strong ones. I would anticipate that the bb has a weak ace or a King when he raises.


In any event, I think Louie would bet the flop here. So would I. BTW, I also don't mind your turn raise if used somewhat sparingly.

I find it odd that no one has mentioned this, but I don't like your call before the flop. You could easily be dominated, so basically you are hoping to flop a flush draw or K88 or something. I think to call with 5-6 people in the hand you need both straight and flush possibilities if you don't have VERY big cards. Hands like 10-8s, j-8s play much better in this spot, in my opinion, because of the straight chance, and because it is much easier to get away from a pair of 10's or J's than K's.


Now that I've got that out of my system....


I don't like your bet on the flop either. If there were fewer opponents, you would of course bet, but 1 of 5 people is bound to have an ace or a king. It is no use betting for information here because you probably shouldn't fold if you get check-raised (the pot is large), so you are not really going to use the information. If no one has and ace, king, QJ, Q10, or J10 then checking shouldn't hurt you because the next card will only make a second best hand (or a 2-out set, depending on how your day is going). The free card also gives you a chance to improve to something that is worth continuing with.


And now happier thoughts...


I like the turn play, I agree that the BB probably doesn't have a very strong hand and there is a good chance he folds to your raise. You have lots of ways to win.


Basically, what I am saying is your hand is virtually worthless on the flop, so your flop bet is a bluff into 5 other players. Even if you are best, a 10, J, or Q is scary (even if you make 2-pair or trips). The hand isn't going to make you any money, and it becomes to easy to get trapped.