PDA

View Full Version : Why the mathematically correct play isn't always the best play


DrewOnTilt
06-05-2004, 12:36 AM
I direct this post to those of you who are new to tournaments. I am a newbie and would like to share with other newbies a lesson that I learned the hard way today.

Good poker players will tell you that the mathematically correct play isn't always the best play. A good example of such a situation can be found in Chip Reese's introduction in Super / System. Although I've read this many times, I can't seem to get it through my thick skull.

Today while on the bubble in an SNG, I was dealt a big pocket pair. I threw in a hefty raise and got one caller. The flop was two suited (clubs) but low and unsequenced.

Feeling confident and cocky, I pushed all-in. The caller would fold, for sure, especially if he were on a flush draw. As it turns out, he had AK of clubs, and he called my allin. The river brought a club, and I busted out.

This would not have been a bad play on my part were it not for the fact that I had developed tunnel vision and had ignored that the shortest stack was down to 2 big bets and was likely to bust out on the next hand. In fact, he did bust out on the next hand, but then took time to thank me personally for busting out ahead of him and sending him into the money.

I figure that the caller on this hand was about a 1.5:1 dog to make either a flush or an overpair. I had the advantage, and my play was not incorrect from a purely mathematical point of view. Nonetheless, it was a moronic play. A better play would have been to make a good sized bet at the flop and turn and then check/fold on the river.

Lesson learned the hard way: when poker authors and the experienced players on these boards say that there are other factors to be considered besides the two cards in your hands, HEED THE ADVICE.

I hereby nominate myself for booby prize of the week. Anyone second my nomination?

Peter Harris
06-05-2004, 05:34 AM
seconded.

but only if you second my proposition for "most needing a good whack upside the head" for my play over the last 24 hours!

Pete H.

ZeeJustin
06-05-2004, 05:37 AM
I agree with the intentions of your post, however, you need to be careful with your terminology.

The mathematically correct play, is by definition, the best play.

When you use the phrase "mathematically correct play", you are referring to scenarios where your EV, purely in terms of # of chips, is positive.

There are 2 reasons why having positive chip EV is not necessarily the best play.

1) There may be a play that leads to an even higher chip EV.
2) Chip EV does not correlate with $ EV. For example, if you have 1 chip, and 3 other guys have exactly a billion chips each. UTG goes all-in, Buttion and SB both call. You have aces in the BB. Assuming a standard party SNG payout, you have an easy fold. If you do not understand why, you are not ready to read Tournament Poker For Advanced Players. This is an extreme example, but it proves that positive chip EV does not mean positive $ EV.

Sorry if I'm nitpicking. Like I said, the message you were intending for is an important one, and I'm not trying to undermine it at all.

Tosh
06-05-2004, 07:52 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I figure that the caller on this hand was about a 1.5:1 dog to make either a flush or an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I think the AK /images/graemlins/club.gif was a slight favourite when the money went in.

DrewOnTilt
06-05-2004, 02:21 PM
Point taken on the terminology, Zee.

How about this - I was ahead at the time and more likely to win the hand than not, but the probability of winning the hand should not have been the only deciding factor in my play.

Stack sizes and blind sizes were the most important factors at this point; since I ignored that fact, I got my balls busted. Ouch.

Newbies, learn from my screwup. Don't do the same thing or you will likely be sent away with your tail between your legs.

Tosh
06-05-2004, 03:05 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I was ahead at the time and more likely to win the hand than not, but the probability of winning the hand should not have been the only deciding factor in my play.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have checked it since I posted earlier and you were a dog on the flop. You were behind and didn't get outdrawn.

DarrenX
06-11-2004, 04:05 PM
Speaking of draws...

If you're in last position on a draw where you're the favorite on the flop (ex: you have an OESD & Flush draw vs. bottom two pair), is there any logic to taking a free card, albeit a free card that may take you from being a favorite to an underdog? /images/graemlins/confused.gif