"Fear Not the Flush" [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Shalara

06-04-2004, 03:10 PM

I posted a hand yesterday, and I was rather surprised that the general consensus was I should have bet the river, despite the fifth club falling there.

I pondered this deeply and long, the phrase, "Fear not the Flush". I gave some serious thought to why these winning players would say that, and in what cases it might apply. I think I understand why it was appropriate there, as well as when it might not be. But just to be sure....

Hand One:

MP1 seems solid. MP3 I see frequently. He seems to be trying to catch me constantly; I suspect he thinks I'm a total lag. SB appears to be a calling station.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Shalara is CO with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Shalara raises, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP3 3-bets, Shalara caps, SB calls $0.50 (All-In), MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players, 1 all-in) 
MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Shalara raises, MP1 3-bets, MP3 caps, Shalara calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players, 1 all-in) 
MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Shalara raises, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (19.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players, 1 all-in) 
MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Shalara bets, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 22.75 BB
Main Pot: 5.50 BB, between MP1, MP3, Shalara and SB. > Pot won by Shalara (5.50 BB).
Pot 2: 17.25 BB, between MP1, MP3 and Shalara. > Pot won by Shalara (17.25 BB).

Results in white below: 
MP1 shows 9d 9s (three of a kind, nines).
MP3 shows Ad Ah (one pair, aces).
Shalara shows Qd Qh (three of a kind, queens).
SB shows Ks 7d (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Shalara wins 22.75 BB. 

Hand Two:

BB is TP. The rest are just plain loose.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Shalara is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Shalara completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players) 
Shalara bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players) 
Shalara bets, BB calls, UTG calls $0.25 (All-In), UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button raises, Shalara 3-bets, BB calls, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (18.12 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players, 1 all-in) 
Shalara bets, BB calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 21.12 BB
Main Pot: 6.62 BB, between Button, Shalara, BB and UTG. > Pot won by Shalara (6.62 BB).
Pot 2: 14.50 BB, between Button, Shalara and BB. > Pot won by Shalara (14.50 BB).

Results in white below: 
Shalara shows 8s 9s (straight, ten high).
BB shows Kh As (one pair, kings).
UTG shows Kc 5h (one pair, kings).
Button shows 6h Ks (two pair, kings and sixes).
Outcome: Shalara wins 21.12 BB. 

And lastly...

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Shalara is UTG with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Shalara raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 3-bets, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Shalara calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players) 
Shalara bets, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players) 
Shalara bets, MP1 raises, CO calls, Shalara 3-bets, MP1 caps, CO calls, Shalara calls.

River: (18.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players) 
Shalara checks, MP1 bets, CO calls, Shalara calls.

Final Pot: 21.75 BB
Main Pot: 21.75 BB, between Shalara, MP1 and CO. > Pot won by MP1 (21.75 BB).

Results in white below: 
Shalara shows Ks Ac (straight, ace high).
MP1 shows Ah 5h (flush, ace high).
CO shows Qh Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: MP1 wins 21.75 BB. 

So... good? Bad?

chief444

06-04-2004, 03:26 PM

All three look good to me. I may have raised the river in hand 3 with the extra caller in between but I think looking at it closely calling may be best since you are probably splitting the pot with one of them even if neither has the flush.

On hands 2 and 3...I wouldn't be too concerned with flushes that come runner-runner on the last two streets in general. I'm not saying to ignore the possibility but it is certainly less of a concern than if two of the suit flopped.

Nice hands.

Shalara

06-04-2004, 04:15 PM

Ack! Should read

[ QUOTE ]
I posted a hand yesterday, and I was rather surprised that the general consensus was I should have bet the river, despite the **THIRD** club falling there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too late to edit, but hope that makes more sense /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Shalara

06-04-2004, 04:24 PM

Thanks /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Yeah, I was wondering on hand 3. It looked like he was free-rolling, given the turn action. I immediately slapped on an Ax /images/graemlins/heart.gif tag, but I could have been wrong. Perhaps I should have bet the river after all.

Do you think a check-raise on the flop might have been better? I've been wondering about that.

bisonbison

06-04-2004, 05:15 PM

Hand 1: looks good.

Hand 2: beauty.

Hand 3: sure. You're going to split with any ace, and the flush is possible, so you're not getting a great return on any future river action, and you really don't want to get raised.

I think I started "Fear not the flush", and I can briefly explain why:

1. No matter how many players are in, the flush is absent more often than it is there. With 10 players still in and a three flush at the river, someone has the flush only 30% of the time.

2. The action that we want to attribute to a made flush is often TPTK, two pair, a set, or a straight, any of which may be overplayed.

3. When the flush is absent, your opponents will often call a bet with a losing hand, despite the flush possibility.

Because of these three facts, it is essential to collect the bets when the flush is missing in order to compensate for the time when the flush catches you. Some very high percentage of the time, you win extra bets.

Now, there are some things that make it more clear the flush is out: a LP position player raises the flop and checks the turn through, then bets or raises a flush card on the river. A 3-flush flops and a fourth suited hits on a later street. Two opponents get in a raising war on the turn or river when a 3rd flush card arrives. These are all very likely to make someone a flush. Likely. Not sure. Even when something like that happens on the turn, you may have outs.

And there is no way to know if your opponents are going to go crazy on a flush river unless you bet. Let them tell you. 80% of the time, they'll pay you off.

Chris Daddy Cool

06-04-2004, 05:21 PM

You play g00t.

all well played