Where good players have the edge in a Sit and Go.

[Jason Strasser]

I'm not by any means close to the best sit and go player on this forum. My numbers are not as good as some of the ones I've seen posted here. I play the $100-$200 sngs on party, and I just felt like too many people, even on here, play sit and gos without capitalizing on golden chances.

The edge in a sit and go, for me, is about stack sizes. The reason I make money, I believe, is because I always take advantage of stack sizes.

Example:

We are four handed. I have T3300, blinds are 200/400. I'm dealt 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the SB. Button has T2800, BB stack is around 3k and UTG has 600 or so.

UTG folds, smart and sharp button raises minumum. I push, zero hesitation, both fold. I add 1200 to my stack that was not there when I started the hand.

Jason, are you nuts? Perhaps. But do you know what the button will fold here? Everything except AA, KK, maybe QQ, maybe AKs. I am not a maniac, and this is the first time in the sit and go I have put up any resistance to a raise from the button.

I could leave you with more examples, but my general rule is this. When you are on the bubble, you can do very well selectively challenging the big stacks in situaitons where they are very unlikely to call you with anything but monster hands. While a lot of players spend their time bullying up the short stacks (which I do a fair amount of), I concentrate for the opportunity to play back at a large stack.

What is my most common finish? First. What is my second most common finish? Fourth.

I believe the chances that you run into the big hand is so small, that over the long run, you will be a much more profitable player making the play I made above.

I'm sure you all disagree, flame away!

[pokerraja]

selective table bullying is the name of the game. but shhhh lets keep this on the down low. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Ian J]

[ QUOTE ]
We are four handed. I have T3300, blinds are 200/400. I'm dealt 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the SB. Button has T2800, BB stack is around 3k and UTG has 600 or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

This play alone shows that you understand the game on a level that is to the point that you will always profit from playing poker.

[Beavis68]

It also shows that the other players understand the game - except for the guy with 600, what the hell is he waiting for?

Try this move on the 10 dollar tables though.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
Try this move on the 10 dollar tables though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would disagree, and argue that a play like this has a higher level of success in higher buy in sit and gos, because for this play to work you need a condition:

[ QUOTE ]
the other players understand the game

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

You have a better shot of a $200 SNG player tossing a hand like AJ or TT here, than a $10 SNG player. IMO

[memphis_aces]

I agree with you SOMEWHAT.... you can certainly challenge people with aggressive bets...and chip stack is CERTAINLY a factor (I love forcing people in for their exact stack size...and I DO agree that smaller moves on the bubble to buy blinds in key situations is smart as it can move you into a comfortable enough position to just wait for someone else to drop out to put you ITM.

HOWEVER, I disagree in that you should be making these all-in moves on the bubble and risking your whole tournament like that. Sure you've got a good chance of drawing out if the guy does call you....but why risk it. With 4th being your 2nd most common finish, I've gotta say you should work on your bubble play and turn those into at least 3rds....

JMHO.

[pokerraja]

[ QUOTE ]
It also shows that the other players understand the game - except for the guy with 600, what the hell is he waiting for?

Try this move on the 10 dollar tables though.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive played $10 tables that play much tighter, and or skillful, than some $200. the only difference is really the buy-in. i feel the tightest games are the $100, for some odd reason.

[Grivan]

I think that was his point too Jason, but while this play won't neccisarily work as much in the smaller sit and gos the biggest mistake people make in them is folding to much. Even in a $10 sit and go it is very easy to just run over the table towards the end when people are trying to edge into the money.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
HOWEVER, I disagree in that you should be making these all-in moves on the bubble and risking your whole tournament like that. Sure you've got a good chance of drawing out if the guy does call you....but why risk it. With 4th being your 2nd most likely finish, I've gotta say you should work on your bubble play and turn those into at least 3rds....

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. I disagree again. The bubble is my friend, not my enemy here. The bubble is why my opponent will fold without a top 5 hand. If we are in the final three, this play is a lot worse. I have no intentions of him calling. And I really think 56s is irrelevant. I can push here with any 2 cards.

Ironically, 56s isn't so bad if my opponent happened to have aces =). Relatively...

[Jason Strasser]

Hehe, we could have a discussion about levels and difficulty, this post was not meant to cover that. It's about plays like this and why I really believe SNG players would have much better results if they started to do things like this.

[sabre170]

This play assumes the button will raise with lot of hands that can't stand a reraise. Is that a safe assumption?

Not if I'm on the button.

Sabre170

[memphis_aces]

I agree that the 56 are irrelevant here...they're suited, they're connectors and the only call you're going to get is a top pair which any suited connecting undercards stand about an equal chance of beating....

And yes....I agree that moves on the bubble are very wise as play tightens up substantially. I only disagree with risking your whole stack. If they will fold to a 50% of stack bet, why risk the whole thing? By this point in the tourney you should have a decent read of your opponent and should be able to make more precise bets to push them off pots. Risking most all of your stack (and your tourney) when you could at least leave yourself a leg to stand on if you get called just seems foolish here to me. Again...I'm not the best player in this place by ANY means, but your abundance of 4th place finishes seems to tell me I'm right.

There is another very similar discussion going on elsewhere about making 3BB raises when 2BB raises will have the same desired effect (inducing a fold).

[sabre170]

Also, might not the button be more alarmed by a min-reraise than a fast push? The fast push tends to look like the bluff it is.

Sabre170

[Jason Strasser]

50% of my stack at this point is 1500, he doubled the blinds to 800. If I raise to 1500, he has to call 700 into a pot of 2700. Which are incredible pot odds he should make with virtually any cards. I don't want him to call, and I know he wont call my all in without a top five hand.

Look at it from his view:

The short stack is about to have 2/3 of his stack blinded away. We are one away from the money. Why should I tangle with this tight player who has just pushed all in?

And with regards to my 4th place finishes, you need to understand two things. One first : 2.5 thirds. And, I do not have an "abundance" of 4th:

1sts ~ 16%
2nd and thirds ~ 13% each
4ths ~ 15%

Continue the flaming, I love it /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[memphis_aces]

Exactly.

I'd hardly suggest a min bet here or anything....but I've accomplished the same thing with 1/3 or maybe even 2/3 stack bets (depending on the my read). This way, if the guy comes back at me then I can fold and still have enough of a stack to maneuver my way back into the money (and then to first from there).

[Jason Strasser]

Sabre, yes, he could have AA. And yes, sometimes when I do this move he has AA. And I go out fourth, and I look dumb, and my friend who was watching me writes me an IM:

"WTF MAN YOU NOOB"

And I move on. But from your tournament experience, what range of hands can raise from the button in this situation, and what percentage of those hands are going to call my all in UNDER these circumstances. The Button is almost guaranteed money by folding to my all in! And he still has a playable stack.

Remember, if I was a maniac and I did this all the time, this move would not be profitable. However, this move is my edge--at least I believe.

[Jason Strasser]

Memphis,

I see your point, but I don't think you see mine. I'm making a play. If I decide to raise preflop, I am not going to make a half assed play. I've found what I believe is the perfect situation (thanks to my friend the bubble), to put someone is a spot where they can almost NEVER call me.

Really, if I GET called, I stand up and walk away. There is no doubt I'm soooooo far behind. I've forced him to call me with only the best of the best. And do you know how many times he has that hand?


Rarely. Not commonly enough to make this move less than very, very, very positive EV.

[memphis_aces]

Not flaming you, man..... You expressed your opinion, we're expessing ours. It's that simple. I also said that my plan was read-dependent....if you think that he would call a 50% of stack raise, then go 60 or 75....if you think he's going to call much more than that, then he's likely going to call your all-in (and likely with a hand that has you beat).

That's all I'm saying.

[memphis_aces]

Correct.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree.... I think you can (and I do) accomplish the same thing while putting less at risk. If you enjoy hitting the All-In button, then that's your perogative.....me, I'd rather stay in the tournament that 5% of the time that I may get called with this move.

We agree in principle...just not in methodology.

[BettnTibetn]

this works great untill the button shows up with KK AA etc

[Jason Strasser]

Indeed. But again, answer this question:

What percentage of hands that will raise in this spot be able to call my all in under the cirumstances? My guess is around 10%, maybe less.

[Harry]

And now that I and every 2+2ers know you do pull moves like this, there will be more calls coming. There aren't that many "regulars" who play at 200. The move itself is questionable, but bragging at 2+2 forum certainly is not the smart thing to do.

> this works great untill the button shows up with KK AA etc

[Prickly Pete]

I agree that this move has to be considered and will most often work. Unfortunately, as you probably know, most of the $200 players won't give the opportunity by raising to 800. They'll just go allin.

[sabre170]

As you said in another answer, "Look at it from his point-of-view." But let's do so preflop.

On the bubble, there are two big stacks and two short stacks. I, the button, have one of the big stacks. Shall I raise to try to steal the blinds, or shall I fold into the money? If I have a monster, shall I trap?

I think a raise in this situation should often mean a hand that can withstand your all-in reraise.

I don't dispute that this play often works for you.

Sabre170

[Jason Strasser]

Exactly. A min raise sometime says to me "big hand, watch out". But I feel like a large amount of the time, especially when the blinds are big in a sit and go, and the bubble is upon us, a min raise represents a small commitment. The raiser is thinking, "there is a very good chances my raise steals the blinds, and I can fold to a reraise and have a nice stack."

A lot of $200 sng players will be smart and push here, and fully knowing that all hands except the very best will fold.

And with regards to letting this secret out, I find it laughable. This is a strategy discussion, and I offered up a point of view of mine for discussion. If Harry wants to criticize me for:

1) telling 2+2ers about my move who,

2) in turn begin to start using it in huge numbers on party poker, leading to

3) more loose calls in situations like this...

Then I laugh. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jason Strasser]

Sabre,

What hands do you call my raise with?

[Harry]

You will more likely be crying rather than laughing when your 65s get called by JTs - exactly the kind of hand that would've brought the 2xBB raise and fold to your all-in before..

1) telling 2+2ers about my move who,

2) in turn begin to start using it in huge numbers on party poker, leading to

3) more loose calls in situations like this...

Then I laugh

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
And now that I and every 2+2ers know you do pull moves like this, there will be more calls coming.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome aboard. The whole point of this forum is to discuss "moves like this". You can say the same thing about every piece of strategy advice that is posted on every board here.


[ QUOTE ]
The move itself is questionable, but bragging at 2+2 forum certainly is not the smart thing to do.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this reply. I think he tries to make a point here, by giving a specific move as an example. Basically, these kinds of moves (playing your opponents, very aggressively, regardless of your cards, in the right spot with the exact timing), is indeed, IMO, what makes the difference between good-avarage players and great ones.

However, this move, as posted, can not be completely analyzed here, since much of its EV is coming from Jason's read of the button (and the BB, for some extent), the previous dynamics of the game, and the over-all feel. Still, it is no doubt a +$EV move, IMO. Getting ITM and later on to HU, with as much as chips as possible, is as important as being good SH or HU players. The advantage of a big stack in late stages is something you gain yourself and is extremely useful (see Fossilman in WSOP for example), as opposed to the original stack you get.

It is a sin not to use it.

[Jason Strasser]

Harry,

Reread my initial post. Then I have a challenge for you.

Find one 2+2 player who calls with JTs in this spot.

Then you win!

[Harry]

That's exactly my point. Now that 2+2ers know you pull this move, when that 2+2er with JTs who would've folded before will now call someone from durham's all in bluff. In turn will bring your EV down.

>>
Harry,

Reread my initial post. Then I have a challenge for you.

Find one 2+2 player who calls with JTs in this spot.

Then you win!

[Jason Strasser]

Hahaha... Someone from Durham. I actually am from New York City and I attend Duke. Durham is a piece of crap, but I get used to it.

Can we talk about poker? Thanks.

And by the way, my name on party is strassa2 so feel free to find me at a 200 sng and call me down.

[Harry]

When do you usually play?

>
And by the way, my name on party is strassa2 so feel free to find me at a 200 sng and call me down.

[etizzle]

What you dont get, Harry, is that 2+2ers will not call with J10s, EVEN IF THEY KNOW that he often makes this play. It is simply not worth the risk when someone is about to get blinded out. I might not even call here if I had J10s and I his cards and they were 56s.

[sabre170]

Jason,

You ask what hands I call your all-in reraise with.

Here is a line of thinking I might pursue on my initial raise:

I don't want to raise if a reraise will make me vomit.
Depending on my reads of the remaining players, I might
decide to play AKo, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and even TT. Maybe even more. But before raising, I have already decided that I am willing to call an all-in reraise from the gang I see to my left. If the all-in is called before it gets back to me, I'll tighten even more.

I might limp with less, and fold to your raise.

On the other hand, every so often I'll limp with AA or KK to trap you.

On the reraise, I might think:
Would he push with AA or KK? I don't think so. I think he'd minraise to suck more dollars in. As the two big stacks, it is in neither of our interests to flip a coin at this point. But if he doesn't have AA or KK, his push is liable to lead to a coinflip. Therefore, he doesn't want to be called. Therefore, guess what?



/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Sabre170

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
We are four handed. I have T3300, blinds are 200/400. I'm dealt 5 6 in the SB. Button has T2800, BB stack is around 3k and UTG has 600 or so.

UTG folds, smart and sharp button raises minumum. I push, zero hesitation, both fold. I add 1200 to my stack that was not there when I started the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like solid play to me.

BTW, anyone that starts off a reply with the phrase, "You risked your whole tournament with 65s???" is completely wrong, and does not understand several basic poker concepts. Think about things like EV, finishing 1st isntead of 3rd. Forget thinking about "65s all-in preflop". He's not planning on being called.

Btw, if anyone says you should wait for a better hand to make this play, like A2o, they would be wrong. 65s is a perfect hand to make this play with. You aren't dominated unless you are against an overpair. Even then, what's the best hand preflop hot and cold against AA? I believe it's 76s. Reraising here with A2o and getting called by AQo would be a disaster.

Also, the fact that the button minraised is important here too. Unfortuantely, some people slowplay strong hands like this, but for others, it means nothing but weakness.

[ QUOTE ]
What is my most common finish? First. What is my second most common finish? Fourth.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not a bad distribution at all. What's 3rd place prize? Not even twice the buyin. F*CK a 3rd place finish.

[mackthefork]

Next time someone does this to me i'm gonna call with any two, yeah alright mack sure you will! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[memphis_aces]

1) Nobody in the thread has even referred to the hand as a factor...the hand is nearly transparent in this case. I was the one who referred to "risking your tournament" but it had nothing to do with the hand he was holding.....it has EVERYTHING to do with risking your entire stack with the #4 guy is about to be blinded off and lock you down in the money. Yes, I realize this provides an opportunity to bluff. Yes, I also think that it's not too bright to risk your whole stack on this bluff if you can get the fold without it.

2) Where did you get A2o from? Unless I missed that post you're posting a counterargument to an arguement that was never made.

3) 3rd place may only be "twice the buyin" but it's twice the buyin more than the payout for 4th place. Also...no one is suggesting he lay down in 3rd...once you're in the money, if you can't manuever your way into 1st or 2nd in the majority of cases then you're likely playing a little above your head.

Me...I say F*CK not getting paid for the hour I spent at the table if I'm that close to the money. Once I'm in the money, then I'm taking first or busting out trying....but at least then I've gotten two more shots for my effort (2x buyin payout for 3rd).

Anyways...I'm not arguing this one anymore...if you guys like raising all-in when you can get the same effect for less risk, knock yourselves out /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Abagadro]

If you are "risking less," you are allowing the initial riser to "risk less" by calling as well as he will be thinking the same thing (i.e. will still have enough to play with if it doesn't work out). I don't play at those stakes, but pushing and putting the guy to a decision for ALL of his chips seems to be a pretty critical componant of the play.

[GuidoSarducci]

[ QUOTE ]
this works great untill the button shows up with KK AA etc

[/ QUOTE ]

Which, statistically, is improbable, especially 4 handed. Even so, he still has 5 cards to make a hand.

[GuidoSarducci]

It pays to point out at this point too that his move was based on sitting with these guys for the last 45 minutes and I would imagine he's got a decent read on the button. If the Button was playing fast and loose and continued to do so short handed, I would imagine that this move wouldn't have been made.

[GuidoSarducci]

Don't forget, by laying low and waiting for someone else to bust out (and surrendering blinds to steals uncontested) by the time he does get to third he's now short stacked and desperate. So, make sure that you adjust those 1st place finishes downward.

It's not all about ITM %.

[GuidoSarducci]

There is no doubt that the hand CAN stand the all-in, but that's not the question at hand. The question is, does the Button have the stones to risk his own tournement by calling an all-in?

Forget you know what SB has. You raise 2x the BB, and SB shoves. What do you THINK he has?

[GuidoSarducci]

Harry,

You would call this move with JTo? Where do you play?

[carpola]

[ QUOTE ]
You will more likely be crying rather than laughing when your 65s get called by JTs - exactly the kind of hand that would've brought the 2xBB raise and fold to your all-in before..


[/ QUOTE ]

If and I mean if someone were to call you with JTs you'd be less than a 2-1 underdog. Factoring in the number of times JTs folds in this situation It has to be a profitable play for JS.

[sabre170]

What do I THINK he has?

I THINK he has pocket 88, and I call his all-in with my pocket JJ. I'm amazed that he made a move on me with such trash, and shake my head as I type "gg".

Sabre170

[dogsballs]

To create a sidetrack from talking about a specific type of play (fwiw, I'm firmly in the this-is-good-EV-play camp), another big edge good players have is adjusting to the blinds/short-handed. Most typical SNG players play too loose early; then too tight-passive late. That is where I can spot that I make my money; by saving chips early and accumulating them late.

[t_petrosian]

I have to agree that it's better to push you're whole stack in at this point...first, pot odds. 2700 to 700 is pretty good for him to call. Pushing your whole stack in, it becomes 5 to 3 or so, much, much worse. Additionally, as Tom McEvoy has mentioned (not that I have a huge amount of respect for him) people don't always seem to get that you are willing to push your whole stack in when you bet 50-60% of it, so these days he just pushes it all in. I think you are going to win this play atleast 85% of the time...the other 15%, you probably are about 3 to 1 against. It MUST have a positive EV...

[C M Burns]

This definatley demonstrates the importance of knowing your oponents. One way to look at this would be as follows. lets assume you will get called as mush as 1 out of 5. So 80% or the time you would end up with 4500 in chips, giving you a 45% chance to win based on chance, of the 80% you are still alive so 36% overall. Of the 20% he calls you will win about 5% giving you 6600, and a 66% chance to win, and .66 x 5 is 3.3 so overall you have a 39.3% chance to win if you make this move. if you fold you are left with 3300 and have a 33% chance to win. So givien these assumptions this move is more profitable than folding. however, this does not take into account you chance of other places, but the added firsts may make up for anything you give up in placing.

[Girazze]

That was the question I was going to ask you, Jason. Was your hand at all relevant to your push? I did notice you had a suited connector. Would you actually try this with any 2 cards? I'm guessing that the confidence level of knowing what good players SHOULD do says "yes" you can do this with any 2 cards.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Try this move on the 10 dollar tables though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would disagree, and argue that a play like this has a higher level of success in higher buy in sit and gos, because for this play to work you need a condition:

[ QUOTE ]
the other players understand the game

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

You have a better shot of a $200 SNG player tossing a hand like AJ or TT here, than a $10 SNG player. IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely. do not try this at a $10,20, or even 30 SnG.

i play $20 SnG at Party. on the bubble, i've seen LOTS medium stacks call a big stack with less than that

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this works great untill the button shows up with KK AA etc

[/ QUOTE ]

Which, statistically, is improbable, especially 4 handed. Even so, he still has 5 cards to make a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

anything is possible on party poker.

$20/2 game, 25/50 blinds. 1 person goes all in, and 4 callers. they had 33, AA, AK, KK, QQ. Yeah, the person who had the 33 was the one who went all in (me). I knew i was dead when i saw all those callers, but my jaw dropped when i saw what they had.

other things that happen at party:
my full house Aces gets killed by a straight flush (2 times so far)
Blind having 27s and becomes a flush or better (3 times)
My pocket pair turns into quads on the flop, and no callers (3 times).

Party's new tagline: Where the improbable happens if you just call to the river /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Bozeman]

Not to say (at this point) whether this play is right or wrong, but you have to be aware of whether the play is $EV + as well as CEV +.

Suppose each player is equally good. Also, the 600 chip stack is worth somewhat less than 600 because of the upcoming blinds. Let's approximate it as 500. So stacks are 33, 28, 33, 5 (before this hand). Let's say he fold x of the time, and the (1-x) you are 3-1 dog (you are slightly better if he would call with some unpaired hands).

For simplicity, let's assume BB will always fold (whether or not you push). Then after the hand stacks are 1)31, 34, 29, 5 or 2)45,20,29,5 or 3)5,60,29,5 or 4)65,0,29,5.

Your $ EV for these assumptions (as fraction of prize pool):
1).313
2).368
3).125
4).429

So, EV is .313 or .368*.85 + .125*.15*.75+.429*.15*.25= .313+.014+.016= .343

So by these assumptions, the play is definitely good. However, it is sensitive to several assumptions:

If he calls with more hands, your EV goes down rapidly (for same assumptions but call with 30% instead of 15% and now lose only 70%), EV=.322. For the play to become -, he needs to call almost 1/2 the time. Against a good player, that is not so unlikely, since he wouldn't want to put in almost 30% of his stack on a hand he was ready to fold.

If you do this with total trash (say 72o), it will still be +EV by the other assumptions (since the first term .368*.85=folding equity alone), your EV will drop significantly to EV=.336 . (Axo does about the same as 56s against AA,KK,or QQ)

The most questionable assumption is the value of the small stack with blinds upcoming. If this were say 300, then EVf=.320, but EVr=.350. Thus the relative +EV of this play is fairly insensitive to the size of the small stack (except as it relates to chance of being called).

Finally, the EV depends somewhat on how large your stack would be if you lose. However, since this term accounts for only about .015, it is not enough to swing this to a fold even if you would bust out, except that if button covers you it also increases his chance of calling.

Conclusion: good play unless button is usually/often slowplaying a monster here.

Craig

[codewarrior]

I must disagree with this. I will qualify my statement, however. I try to play 1 $109 on Stars, once a week, either on a Friday or Saturday night (read: early morning), and they are insanely loose. Think WPT junkies with money. It is not uncommon to lose two people in the first round.

I play them at the same site at the same general time each week. My IT$ is 90%. Granted, once a week makes for a small sample. I do not play them more often as I do not keep an online bankroll to support this level.

Maybe this is more a comment on game selection than level, FWIW.

[etizzle]

well, one thing... if he calls you, you have a MUCH better than 5% chance to win. If he has AA, and neither are a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, then you have a 22% chance to win. This helps a lot toward making this move profitable. And he is NOT gonna call without a high pocket pair.