It is Time to be Counted (Smarty Jones)

[El Barto]

It is time for everyone here to commit to the central question:

Will Smarty Jones become the first Triple Crown Winner of the new millennium?

Instead of a poll, I want public commitments here. So post a reply that says:

"Smarty Jones will win"
or
"Smarty Jones will lose"

After the race, we will review who was publicly right, who was publicly wrong, and which frequent posters were too gutless to hazard a guess. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Don't wimp out - post your prediction. I'll start:

El Barto says Smarty Jones will Win.

[namknils]

namknils says Smarty Jones will Lose. It will be close though.

[jdl22]

I know nuff all about horse racing. I watch exactly 3 races per year. After watching the Preakness I say yes.

[Slacker13]

Yes, he will win. The triple crown is overdue.

[NoChance]

Yes he will win.

Early line has him a 2/5 favorite. I keep being told by people who bet these often that it isn't so much that the horse is that good, it's that the rest of the field is that bad.

*Edit - That being said, I think this race may be one that isn't worth betting. Odds are too small to bet the favorite and can't really pick another horse from the rest that has a reasonable shot.

[MrGo]

No.

I like Rock Hard Ten to win by 2.

[Cubswin]

http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2004/pps/04belmont.pdf

[Homer]

Smarty Jones will win. Yeah Philly Park!

BTW, I'm going to be there tomorrow. Anyone else going?

-- Homer

[george w of poker]

smarty jones will win by 8 lengths. the whole country will rejoice and the war will end.

note: the only thing i know about horse racing is from what i read in Seabiscuit and i haven't actually seen this smarty jones horse race. nevertheless, you heard it here first.

[Cubswin]

I hate chalks......but smarty will win.

Typically, you look for fresh horses in the Belmont. Those running all three legs of the Triple come in with a little fatigue. I dont think any of the fresher horse have enough class or stamina to go the distance.

The only way that i can see Smarty losing is if he gets in a speed battle up front with Purge. If the fractions are blistering the door may be open for either Rock Hard Ten or Eddington. I dont see this happening because Smarty and Purge have meet twice at Oaklawn and Smarty managed to stalk and overcome the 46.4 half pace of Purge in the mud.

Soooooooo....count me on board the Smarty band wagon.

regards
cubswin

[ChristinaB]

You guys are too sentimental, hoping for a Triple Crown here.

If you ran the race 100 times, Smarty would win more than any other single horse, but not win a majority of times.

Tomorrow odds are something will go wrong. A stumble, being blocked in, whatever.

Smarty Jones will lose the race.

[BettnTibetn]

not only will he lose, his jockey will fall off the horse and get mangled by the other horses

[bwana devil]

His father was a mudder. His mother was a mudder. Loves the slop, Jerry!

Sounds like a yes to me.

[GWB]

The only time the Triple Crown was won in a Presidential Election Year, the incumbant President won reelection (even though many were counting him out).

For this reason, I predict that Smarty Jones will win. /images/graemlins/smile.gif



(Only Triple Crown in Pres. Election year = 1948)

[Slacker13]

[ QUOTE ]
Smarty Jones will lose the race.

[/ QUOTE ]
You know you can get +190 on that bet offshore. Pretty good odds.

[siccjay]

[ QUOTE ]
The only time the Triple Crown was won in a Presidential Election Year, the incumbant President won reelection (even though many were counting him out).

For this reason, I predict that Smarty Jones will win. /images/graemlins/smile.gif



(Only Triple Crown in Pres. Election year = 1948)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Smarty will win easy, I just hope this election year thing doesn't hold up.

[Legend27]

Victory will be attained.

[Dilbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Tomorrow odds are something will go wrong. A stumble, being blocked in, whatever.


[/ QUOTE ]
Always negative, aren't we?

Smarty Jones will win and Christina is a moron.

[GrannyMae]

not only will he lose, his jockey will fall off the horse and get mangled by the other horses

that is horrible, even for a joke. have you seen this happen? why would you even say this?

[Norm]

Smarty Jones wins

[paland]

[ QUOTE ]
Typically, you look for fresh horses in the Belmont. Those running all three legs of the Triple come in with a little fatigue.

[/ QUOTE ]
I could see fatigue if it was in the last week or so, but I don't think the fatigue would carry more than that. I think the fatigue would come from recent races.

"Smarty Jones will lose" At least I hope that the 3 horses I picked in my Exacta and trifect box bets will win instead.

[GrannyMae]

pulling away.

7 lengths min.


bet your dog on it.
mortgage the house.
http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/d/spock.gif

[Cubswin]

[ QUOTE ]
I could see fatigue if it was in the last week or so, but I don't think the fatigue would carry more than that. I think the fatigue would come from recent races.


[/ QUOTE ]

3 races in 5 weeks is a lot to ask of any 3 year old...especially when the last one is at the 1.5 distance.

[crazy canuck]

Smarty Jones will win the Triple Crown, then Dubya (inspired by Caligula) will also make him a senator. After that he'll run for president but unfortunately will lose to Schwarzenegger by a close margin.

[Hiding]

I'm in Louisville, home of the derby, and we are way overdue for a triple crown winner!

Smarty Jones will win!!!

[GWB]

[ QUOTE ]
Dubya (inspired by Caligula) will also make him a senator.

[/ QUOTE ]
hmmmm....Senator Smarty Jones

He'd do a better job than Senator Kennedy, Senator Clinton, Senator Daschle........

[Drunk Bob]

From all the hype I would look for a better bet.

2/5 Morning Line. Likely to go much lower.

[tyfromm]

Why all this non-poker stuff?

Smarty loses by a head.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Your argument would be a good one if the question were "are you betting on Smarty Jones." Is he worth a bet? Of course not. No horse is worth a vlaue bet at 2-5. Now if you want to take a flyer and try to catch the exacta cold, that's another thing, but even that isn't a prime betting opportunity.

The random factor - the potential for a wet track - actually works in his favor. The one thing that works against him is the propensity for the Belmont to not have a reasonable early pace. However, even that could be of minimal impact. Because most riders will be concerned about not burning their horses out early, there will be little rush for the lead out of the gate. That should enable Elliot to use Smarty's tractable speed to establish position before the first turn and thus avoid traffic problems.

Nothing in the last two races indicates that he won't have more left in the tank for the last quarter mile than his competition. For all the talk about Rock Hard Ten's athleticism, his act at the gate in the Preakness may well be repeated today. A lot of people are touting him as the upset horse, but I'd be concerned about behavior. I may put a small wager on a Smarty Jones-Eddington exacta. Eddington had a hideous trip in the Preakness, and he'll go off a better price than Rock Hard Ten.

But that'll be a minor bet. I'm have't been a full-time horseplayer in ages. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[GrannyMae]

Nothing in the last two races indicates that he won't have more left in the tank for the last quarter mile than his competition.

this is the key.

he can go as long as he needs. the distance is not a problem here.

http://www.techhelpers.net/e4u/animal/927.gif
http://www.techhelpers.net/e4u/animal/927.gif
http://www.techhelpers.net/e4u/animal/927.gif
http://www.techhelpers.net/e4u/animal/927.gif

[Cubswin]

Smarty is currently at 1-9... the next best is at 10-1...lots of value for the taking. Smarty is rightfully the favorite but should not a 1-9 favorite. If you are going to bet Smarty... for goodness sake bet him to show.... much better value there then a win bet.

[ QUOTE ]
For all the talk about Rock Hard Ten's athleticism, his act at the gate in the Preakness may well be repeated today. A lot of people are touting him as the upset horse, but I'd be concerned about behavior.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Rock Hard's antics at the gate in the Preakness cost him 3 lengths in that race... had he not acted up i still dont think he would have been close.

Smarty is a tough tough horse but remember that the Belmont is also a tough tough race. This race has humbled many good horses in the past and it could happen again today. For the sake of horse racing i hope he does bring it home today... this industry needs a super horse to boost interest.

regards
cubswin

[gabyyyyy]

I predict Smarty Jones will lose.

[gabyyyyy]

Granny, I do not think Smarty Jones will win this race. He has not had enough rest and this track is longer then prior starts. Also he is in position 9 and has to run more track than the rest of the field. The Belmont is unlike anywhere else he has raced before. Many horses have not been able to adapt to this track.

[GrannyMae]

he has plenty of rest imo, and the same rest as all his true threats. this horse can't be classified like anything we have ever seen. he simply is a miracle just being there. his impressive win last week, pulling away with the rider standing as they crossed the line showed me the belmont length won't be a factor. being wide should not hurt either. the race is so long that he will have plenty of time to get out of any jams.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/m/weedsmilie.gif

[El Barto]

Just one hour to go folks - get your prediction in now.


[ QUOTE ]

Will Smarty Jones become the first Triple Crown Winner of the new millennium?

Post a reply that says:

"Smarty Jones will win"
or
"Smarty Jones will lose"

After the race, we will review who was publicly right, who was publicly wrong, and which frequent posters were too gutless to hazard a guess. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Don't wimp out - post your prediction.

[/ QUOTE ]
http://media.phillyburbs.com/2004/06/04/0604tongue.jpg

Just one hour to go folks - get your prediction in now.

[HavanaBanana]

He will lose, look at that pic, he is swetting out, sick sick sick!
besides at so low odds, the mafia can´t afford him to win!

ToT

[Cubswin]

Smarty says, "eat my wake".

http://www.equinenet.org/heroes/edsurf.gif

[TimM]

Smarty Jones will win, because he is a distant cousin of Lucy Jones. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[J_V]

Smary Jones will win EASILY.

[J_V]

Why? Why do horses try and hold the lead at the belmont?

[GrannyMae]

Granny, I do not think Smarty Jones will win this race

was gabyyy the only one that was right?

the sky IS falling

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/_950/smoking.gif

[El Barto]

The posters who correctly picked Smarty Jones to lose:

namknils
MrGo
ChristinaB
BettnTibetn
paland
Gregorio
gabyyyyy
HavanaBanana

[GWB]

A sad day:

We miss the Triple Crown again.

We lose a great former President, Ronald Reagan. (http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/6/5/190525.shtml)

W

[jpg777]

Well I forgot to make a vote, but I did drive down to the track, and I brought my new digital camera. Too bad I can't take decent pictures. I uploaded some of my "better" pics here http://community.webshots.com/album/149813374EkLAHf for everyone's enjoyment.

[HavanaBanana]

[ QUOTE ]
namknils
MrGo
ChristinaB
BettnTibetn
paland
Gregorio
<font color="red"> gabyyyyy</font>
HavanaBanana

[/ QUOTE ]

I heard he had put 50$ on Smarty to lose, well done !

ToT