wimpy?

Relatively tight and passive 10-20 Paradise game.


I am 2nd to act with AJ off. I call. A late player calls, the button calls, the SB folds, and the BB checks.


Flop is 9TJ rainbow. BB checks, I bet, late player raises.

Button and BB fold. I call.


Turn is a 9, 4 suits on board. I bet and late player calls.

River is an ace. I bet and get a reluctant call. My opponents hand should be pretty obvious, so I won't mention it until later.


Any thoughts appreciated. Thanks in advance.


Dan Z.

Dan,


Nothing is obvious to me these days but I would guess your opponent had a JT. I liked your play of betting again on the turn.


My only question is why not raise before the flop in a tight passive game? I can't ever see entering with a limp since you should have a lot of blind stealing equity and AJ is just good enough to do so from early position.


Regards,


Rick

Dan, are you thinking a post-flop re-raise might have blown the button off his 87?

The button folded, so it is heads up. As to the late position player, I don't think I know anyone who flops a straight 4 handed and lets go of it on the flop head to head. I have top pair with an ace.


Good luck.


Dan Z.

actually you had top two pair, and I don't see anywhere you played it wimpy, so I could'nt figure out the title to the post, and I assumed you might have meant your opponent was the wimp. (who might have flopped a str8t with 87, or Q8, and got scared when the 9 paired the board, or when the A came to make a bigger str8t possible)


yes I did mean the late position player, not the button.


You had described the table as tight passive and his reluctant call on the river could just as easily meant he thought he was beat even tho he had a str8t. (which I guess he didn't, but I'm confused, so maybe you could enlighten me)

Sorry I misunderstood. Here's what the title of the post meant -

I read my opponent for one of the following on the flop:


1) a set of nines

2) A jack, with a kicker 8 or better.

3) an AQ

4) two pair

5) a pair with a Q or K kicker


Since most players raise preflop with AQ against one limper, and many with 99, I discounted these hands greatly.


So, here's my read of the opponents hands, and the number of combinations for each.


AJo - 5 ways - 70% consistent (might raise this pre-flop with good position)

AJs - 1 way - 50% consistent (more tempting to raise pre-flop)

KJ, suited or not - 8 ways - 100%

QJ, suited or not - 8 ways - 100%

JT, suited or not - 6 ways - 100%

J9 sutied - 1 way - 100%

J8 suited - 2 ways - 25% (may not play it, or be aggressive on this flop)

87 suited - 4 ways - 50% (may not get aggressive til the turn)

QT - 12 ways - 50% (may not be bold enough to raise flop, would not really want to eliminate players)

Q9s - 3 ways - 50% (same as QT)

99 - 3 ways - 33% ( may wait to raise, may raise preflop)

AQo - 9 ways - 11% (raise preflop very likely, as is flop call)

T9s - 2 ways - 100%

KT - 12 ways - 25%

T8s - 3 ways - 33%


So, here are the number of ways I am ahead but vulnerable, strongly ahead, tied, behind, and virtually dead -


tied - 4 ways (another AJ)

ahead but vulnerable (opponent has 11+ outs) - 16 ways

(a pair with an open ended draw, or an AQ or KT)

somewhat safely ahead (fewer than 11 outs) - 11 ways (KJ, KT)

behind (5+ outs) - 3 ways (J9s, T9s)

bad news (4 or fewer outs)- 6 ways (JT)

virtaully dead (no turn outs) - 3 ways (99, 87s)


So my dilemma is this - I am either ahead, or badly beat.

I am ahead most of the time (27 to 12), but if an 8, Q or K falls on the turn, I am in deep trouble.


However, since I plan to throw away my hand if a K,Q or 8 falls, and to bet otherwise, should I not reraise the flop? Working out the math from above, it seems like I am a small money favorite on the flop, so why not reraise if I am planning to bet out most of the time, and will be a pretty big favorite on the turn?


This would often be the end of it, but there are other considerations -

1) How often will opponent fold a better hand than mine?

2) How often will opponent fold AJ?

3) How often will opponent make me fold a better hand than his?

4) How will the river be played if I 3 bet the flop versus calling and betting?

5) Will opponent raise the turn with a hand I beat if I do not 3 bet?

6) Will opponent raise turn with 2 pair if I do 3 bet?

7) Will opponent automatically bet turn if I do not 3 bet, allowing me to raise?


I did not really know the opponent, so I had to go with typical player asumptions, modifying slightly towards tight and passive-


1) will not fold 2 pair or better no matter what I do, unless an 8 or queen comes and I choose to bluff twice.

2) will not fold an AJ except as described above.

3, 5) Opponent may semi - bluff raise the turn, but usually won't. They will virtaully never do this if I 3 bet the flop. If they do, will not follow through with a river bluff, unless they have AQ.

4) If I 3 bet te flop, unimproved QJ will fold the river 1/4 of the time. Unimproved KJ about 1/8 of the time.

6) will probably not raise the turn with 2 pair if I 3 bet the flop, unless it is JT. They will raise turn 1/2 of the time with JT if I 3 bet, 100% if I do not.

7) I do not think the opponent will bet the turn with a hand I beat, except perhaps KJ or QJ - maybe they bet these 1/4 of the time.


So I decided to not 3 bet the flop. I am curious what people think of the above analysis, and of my assumptions. One of my key factors at the time in not 3 betting was to increase the chances of getting a QJ or KJ to call on the river should the cards come favorably, and to get away cheaply if they do not.


After laying out the above, I am still not sure which play is best, or if the bigger pot would make the oppoenents river call more versus less likely. Looking back, the river call was probably not as big a factor as I thought when I made the play.


The opponent's hand was a QJ. I thought the reluctant call was enough to give this away (that he had a QJ or KJ or J8s), but I may be reading hands "too hard" here. I was 100% confident that this was his hand (after the reluctant river call). Am I drawing too strong a conclusion?


Thanks to anyone who waded through all this. The best I could do at the table was -


"lots a times I'm shakily ahead, sometimes I'm in deep troble, the wimpier I am, the more action I get later from lesser hands, and the cheaper it is if a Q,K or 8 falls. No way he folds 2 pair or AJ in this hand, unless I will bluff through a scare card twice, and I won't. He will likely check the turn with QJ and KJ, so I shouldn't try for a check-raise there."


Good luck.


Dan Z.


Also, since

Perhaps I exaggerated my description of the game: it was not loose, but not so tight that opponent would fold AJs, AQ or a medium pair to my raise.


I do think they would have put me on Ace-big if I did raise, and so I did not. I tend to go out of my way to avoid raising with an ace in my hand in marginal spots for this reason. Would this hand perform better with a raise in this spot? I thought it would be easier to play it if I limp, but did I sacrifice to much of the blind stealing/pot control equity for this benefit?


I did not recognize most of the players. If I had viewed my opponents as highly skilled (but on the passive side), I would have raised to deny a good player nice odds to play against me with position. Is the following correct poker reasoning:


"Focus on getting value and knocking out players pre-flop against opponents whom you do not feel you can strongly outplay post-flop. Against weak opponents who are selective of their hands (but not total rocks), be more inclined to let them play against you and look to exercise bigger edges after the flop."


What do people think of the above paragraph? Thanks for the post Rick - this is something I did not strongly consider at the time.


Dan Z.

Dan,


What if the player is a bit trickier/aggressive and makes it 2 bets on the turn. What action would you've taken?

Since this player was unknown, and I played the hand in a way that suggests it is less than stellar, I would definitely call a turn raise.


On the river, I would make a decision based on the river card.

Since it was an ace, there's no way I lay it down. If it were an 8,Q or K, I would fold. If it were smaller than an 8, I probably pay off, but I don't like it. I definitely call if it's a 9. If it were a ten, that would be a tough one, but I probably still call. There's 9 big bets in the pot if he bets the river, so I shouldn't need much reason to call.


In a sense, I have induced a semi-bluff raise on the turn, so I should lean towards paying off. Had I 3 bet the flop and kept coming, then I would consider folding more. I did not want to have to consider this, so I played it meekly to increase the chances that a turn raise is a semi-bluff.


What do you think of this plan? Thanks for the post.


Dan Z.

Good analysis. I agree with your river play as long as you plan to call the raise on turn.