Mega-Loose Game Hand

10-20, majority of players are loose aggressive or loose passive.


Pre-flop


Two limpers to me in middle position, I raised with Kh Kd. The next player, who was loose aggressive, re-raised. The button cold-called, the blinds and limpers called, I capped, and all called. We saw the flop 7-handed.


Flop: Js 9s 2d.


Checked to me and I checked. My feeling was that a bet would not get out even the weakest of draws, and even a raise from the pre-flop 3-better (3B) probably wouldn't have helped much. I was hoping to get a field-thinning raise in on the turn after the arrival of a safe card /images/smile.gif. An almost unbelievable number of players were seeing the turn and river in this game. Anyway, 3B checked and it was checked around.


Turn: Jc


The big blind, a loose aggressive player, bet, a limper called, I called, 3B folded, button called, SB folded. I felt there was a good chance that the BB and/or someone else had a jack, so I was afraid to raise. I also felt like I couldn't fold, as the pot was big and I had so far played my handed in a somewhat unorthodox way. So I called. Any votes for a raise or fold? We saw the river 4-handed.


River: 3d, Final Board: Js 9s 2d Jc 3d


Big blind bet, limper called, I called, and button folded.


I'll post the results below, and thanks in advance for any comments.


Caddy

BB had a A-9 (Js and 9s), limper mucked, and my pocket Ks, by some miracle, held up.

I don't like the flop check. The problem you have here is that if the 3 bettor bets the flop, you will have wished that you had bet so that he could have raised and helped thin the field for you. Further, the preflop strength has come from you and the fellow to your left, so there is no gurantee that a bet will come from your right on the turn even if the action gets checked through on the flop.


I think your turn and river plays were fine.

There were several posts a while back on the subject of checking a big pair when you don't think your bet will knock anyone out, but I don't think this is the right place to apply it, for a couple reasons. One, the board isn't that broken. You have J-9-x with two spades. You don't want people to pick up a draw on the turn for free. A card like 10s on the turn could be a disaster now that everyone got a peek for free. More importantly, you have a loose three-bettor next to act. Bet and let him help you thin the field by raising.


It is frustrating when everyone calls your flop bet, but in this situation, you look like a big favorite so building the pot is ok.

I think you need to bet the flop. The problem with pulling a Mason on this hand is harder since the 3 bet player is to your left. Therefore, you need to bet the flop and hope that he raises to thin the field for you.


It could be a real disaster if on the turn, the BB bets, and limper before you make it 2 bets, and they could bet you out of your pot...

skp,


It is rare for me to disagree with you, so I am shocked to disagree with you twice in the same post! /images/smile.gif First of all, this pot is HUGE (28 bets preflop), so I like the play of checking the flop with the intention of raising the turn. Second of all, I would raise after the jack comes on the turn just so that noone behind me is getting odds to draw to a single ace (when he just calls, anyone behind is now getting 17:1 to hit an ace). I'm not ready to give anyone credit for the jack yet after the flop has just checked around, especially a loose aggressive player. If the BB reraises, then I would probably wish I had taken your advice, but am going to call down anyway (hoping noone else raises again).


I think this hand qualifies as one of those times when the pot has gotten so big that you must do anything you can to improve your chances of winning it, as per HPFAP21 (pp. 167-172). My rule of thumb is that if the pot is so large that anyone who flops 4 outs to my hand is going to get the correct odds to call down to the river if I bet all the way, then I will play the hand strangely to try and get in a field thinning raise somewhere.


You are absolutely right that if the flop checks around, it may check to you again, but I think the risk is worth taking -- given the loose aggressive nature of the game, it seems very likely that someone will now bet the turn if the flop checks around. The problem with hoping the 3 better will raise you on the flop is that everyone is still getting better than 15:1 to call his raise, making it almost irrelevant whether this gambit succeeds or not. This is why I think your only shot is to go for a raise on the turn. It may not work, but it's the only chance you are going to get to make anyone fold correctly.


I guess my point is that your actions on the flop have no chance of making any difference in whether your opponents call, so you might as well wait until the turn when maybe you can get someone out.

As I responded to skp, I think the reason to check the flop is that you have some chance of getting players out with a raise on the turn, but your action on the flop is irrelevant to the correctness of your opponent's play -- they are getting better than 15:1 to continue even if the 3 better raises you. You are probably the favorite to win, but there is so much money in the pot that winning more bets is not nearly as important as winning what is already in the pot right now. I think your only chance to do this is by raising on the turn

What miracle? That sequence happens quite often, especially if you're playing too passively. The turn could have easily been a 9 as a J (not to mention an A). Then you have the same problem, and no pot. The check on the flop encouraged the A9, which is nice for you this time, but will get you in the end.


On the other hand, if you bet out, and draw interest from the field, you know where you are sooner and can govern yourself accordingly.


The more I play this game, the more I realize, especially as the limits go up, that the turn lead bet is where most hands are decided. Oh sure, people call down with marginal odds and hit draws on you from time to time, but that's a necessary evil.

Good post.


I still question whether someone with an Ace will call the turn. He has to worry that he may be drawing dead to the bettor who has a Jack or, at the evry least, drawing dead to Caddy who sure seems like he is calling the turn with AK.


But I suppose that someone with a pocket pair might call (getting 16:1 and implied odds to boot) and given the size of the pot, you want him out.


Well, I suppose some players might call and look just for an Ace. In which case, someone with 9x may also call hoping that the bettor does not have a Jack and that the preflop raisers have Ak/Aq...who knows...anyway...you are probably right with your analysis given the huge pot.

I play a different game than you then Coilean. If the pot gets over $400 in my 20-40 game, anybody with at least two solid outs is going to see the river. There is no field thinning raise. The best thing you can do is play for value, not play tricky, because tricks don't work when there is so much to shoot for.

A turn check raise is as likely to be considered Q10 as it is a J or an overpair.


On the other hand, if as a solid player KK leads out both the flop and the turn and gets three bet on the turn, then he knows he's down to two outs and can then assess his risk-taking tolerance at that juncture. If he never hears anything, he takes down a good size pot with minimum stress.

I understand your logic on the flop, as it is right out of HPFAP. With the size of this pot you need to risk the free card, you felt.


But I think this situation is slightly different. Maybe the best play was to bet with the hope that the reraiser preflop would raise you.


I certainly would not say you made a mistake, and you may have played it correctly. I am not sure which way is correct. But there is another way to play it, which might give you something to think about for next time.


Pat

It seems like you played the hand fine. There is an argument for not capping it before the flop -- if an ace comes you will be sorry you capped, and not capping will give you some strategic advantages on the flop and later streets. However, if they are in there with bad hands, you start to give up too much before the flop equity by just calling.


When the second jack hits and someone bets there is very little gain from raising. Part of the reason for yopur raise on the turn is to knock out players with five outs, but notice that these players now only have two outs. So I think that you are right to call it down. Also notice that if someone has a jack, you saved a little money by not betting the flop.

The problem with being raised on the flop in these type of hands is that many players will cold call the bets anyway and given the size of the pot be right to do so or at least be close to right.

One thing for sure is that these strange plays where you check a good but not great hand on the flop in a big pot are less effective when your position is in the middle.

"The problem with being raised on the flop in these type of hands is that many players will cold call the bets anyway and given the size of the pot be right to do so or at least be close to right."


Not to nitpick, but aren't they even more right to take a card for free?

I'm not getting something. I'd udnerstand your flop check better if you were last to act. But here, you say you didn't bet because no one would fold. But you have to think the loose/aggressive 3-bettor behind you is likely to bet if you don't. So what difference does it make who's bet they won't fold for?

let's say someone is in this pot with A3 of clubs and the flop misses them completely. you decide not to bet with your KK so you can raise on the turn and thin the field and then that player catches his ace on the turn--he would have folded for sure on the flop. what if there are players in this hand who do not play well postflop, and will fold bottom pair on the flop when you bet? this sounds ridiculous to someone who read 2+2, but there are people who play like this----> loose passive doesnt always mean just "calling station" does it? the pot is so big, dont you want the guy with bottom pair to fold right there and then? my experience is that some players will make atrocious folds like this, even after a capped preflop with tons of players.


(example: a couple weeks ago i saw a 10-20 fish fold four handed on the turn with 61 small bets in the pot. the action went like this: fish bets $20, next player goes all in for $30, next two players call $30 cold and the fish folds rather than put $10 more into the pot. he is getting 61 to 1 odds to see the river and he folds.)


please comment--i think there are other supporting arguments to be made for a flop bet here, that, along with skp's analysis, might make it the correct play.

I see absolutely no good reason to check this flop given that there is a likely bet (better still, possible raise) coming from the player on Caddy's left.

This is addressed in the Loose Game Section of HPFAP-21. By checking the flop you are more likely to be able to get a raise in on the turn since your opponents are less likely to check to you. This changes the overall equation.

Well, I didn't necessarily think that 3B (pre-flop 3-bettor) would bet. He made a couple of comments after the pre-flop cold calls and my cap that made me think maybe his hand wasn't that strong, but of course I could have been wrong. If he had bet the flop, my plan was, if a safe card came, to bet into him on the turn and hope he raised to thin the field. Problems with this approach are that he may not raise, and that some of the time when he raises here he has me beat. So admittedly my plan for this scenario was questionable.


Ideally, I was hoping for the flop to get checked around, a safe card to come on the turn, one of the loose aggressive early players to bet, and then I could raise to thin the field. All of which was probably a lot to ask.


I think my flop play on this hand is very debatable, which is why I thought this would be an interesting hand to post. Something that I probably didn't consider enough at the time but that several posters pointed out is that my position was a big factor for this hand.


Thanks Kevin and other respondents for your excellent insights.


Caddy