How much risk in Casino Whoring?

[Big V]

OK, I am wondering if theres a way to figure out, mathetmatically or any other way, the approximate risk in busting out not only your bonus but your initial deposit at these casinos. I started off with the deposit 50 pounds and get another 200 at lucky nugget. I played the required amount of hands, and cashed out 97.5 pounds. Not great but I cannot complain. Then, due to money constraints I deposited only 20 pounds in Captain Cooks. I busted with the 20 bonus pounds quickly, then just as quickly the next day with my own deposit that still had to be played through. Then, I made a killing last night at River Belle. Deposited 250 pounds, got another 250 bonus. After the required hands, I cashed out 511 pounds, a profit of about $470. I am trying to figure out if I should deposit this somewhere else, or just keep it. It seems as if more people have been busting at Captain Cook's than anywhere else, but that could just be coincidence. I appreciate any input. Thanks!

[BradleyT]

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bjapx12.html

[GrannyMae]

hit blackjack ballroom if you want another "big bonus"

hit the 500 other vipers that have 100% up to $100 if you want to play it safe and reduce risk.

whatver you do, NEVER go to one of the rooms that offer a big bonus and not take the whole thing. you have effectively crossed them off the list by doing the short buy. save the bigger bonus casinos for when you are more comfortable, but don't "waste" any of the monster bonuses.

there is absolutely little hope of getting away with hitting these rooms twice because of the multiple cheks and re-checks they have. anyone caught doing this (reformatting your HD won't help, they will find you in the identity process) will be banned from every microgaming casino out there.

finally, i don't see anyone talking about becoming a regular player in any of these, but if you decide to become a regular player, AVOID the rooms with the loyalty clubs that do not award 1 point for every $10 wagered. many of the rooms have abandoned this in lieu of regular deposit bonuses, but in the long run these program suck. if anyone plays regularly, do it at a bellerock room or at a casino rewards room. these 2 'super-groups' have great cashback and recurring bonuses, and bellerock has the buckstobid plus a monthly $300 gets $300 bonus with only a 10X wr. i just recieved my 10th item yesterday. it is a VERY cool lord of the rings chess set, shipped directly from amazon.com

i still get the cashback and the bonuses at 1 point per $10 wagered, but have been cleaning up on the gifts.

both these came from amazon this week

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/_950/target.gif


these are metal pieces
http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B000067BKT.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

this monopoly game has been discontinued and is sold out everywhere. bellerock must have gotten amazon to hold a few.

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B000063JP7.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/u/pacsmile.gif

[MKR]

You'll find information about the standard deviation of blackjack games and the risk of ruin at this site Casino WhoresBJ (http://http://www.bonuswhores.com/casino/) . You can also find figures about the risk of ruin at this site: wizard of odds (http://http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bjapx12.html) and and this one: Deuce Seven- Advantage player adviser (http://http://www.geocities.com/advantageplayeradvisor/). Also, if I'm not mistaken Homer recently had a post on this topic in the probability forum. You'll find it here: Post (http://http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=672641& Forum=All_Forums&Words=blackjack%20standard%20devi ation&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=672641&Search=tru e&where=bodysub&Name=167&daterange=1&newerval=1&ne wertype=m&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post67264 1)

Hope this helps.

MKR

[Homer]

OK, I am wondering if theres a way to figure out, mathetmatically or any other way, the approximate risk in busting out not only your bonus but your initial deposit at these casinos.

Yes. You need three variables -- bankroll, expected value and standard deviation.

Bankroll is the amount of money you have on the site (250 for Lucky Nugget).

Expected Value is how much you should expect to win/lose (do not include bonus in this calc), which is house advantage times playthrough requirement (-18 for LN -- .0036*5000).

Standard Deviation is 1.15*sqrt(n)*x, where n is number of hands and x is bet size. So, if you bet $1/hand, it would be 1.15*sqrt(5000)*$1 = 81.32 for Lucky Nugget.

Then you use the risk of ruin equation, r = N((B-EV)/SD)+e^((2*EV*B)/SD^2)*N((B+EV)/SD).

Another thing you can do is determine how lucky or unlucky your actual result was. For example, say you won $100 (call this Z) at Lucky Nugget:

EV + SD*x = Z

Solve for x to determine how many SD's above or below expectation you were:

182 + 81.32*x = 100

x =~ -1.01

Now, go into Excel and enter =normsdist(-1.01) and you'll get .1562. This means that your result *or worse* will occur 15.62% of the time. In other words, ~5 out of 6 times, you'd do better than you just did, so you were somewhat unlucky.

-- Homer

[Homer]

MKR, your links have 'http' twice, so they don't work without a bit of manipulation. You may want to edit your post if it isn't too late.

-- Homer

[Big V]

Thank you all for your informative posts! They were a big help.

[MKR]

Whoops! Thanks Homer. Here goes another try.

You'll find information about the standard deviation of blackjack games and the risk of ruin at this site Casino WhoresBJ (http://www.bonuswhores.com/casino/) . You can also find figures about the risk of ruin at this site: wizard of odds (http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/bjapx12.html) and and this one: Deuce Seven: Advantage Player Advisor (http://www.geocities.com/advantageplayeradvisor/). Also, if I'm not mistaken Homer recently had a post on this topic in the probability forum. You'll find it here: Post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=probability&Number=672641& Forum=All_Forums&Words=blackjack%20standard%20devi ation&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=672641&Search=tru e&where=bodysub&Name=167&daterange=1&newerval=1&ne wertype=m&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post67264 1).

Hope this helps.

MKR

[serling]

Hi Granny --

This is more in response to your previous post about the True CDs. He's got spies everywhere!

I wonder if it's one person handling all the auction items. For the Amazon items, it appears to be a guy from New York, according to the return address. All but one of the items I've received have been directly from Amazon (with the handy receipt that I could return for credit). I laughed when I saw that one of the items used a free shipping promo code. Anything to save a buck!

The only item that didn't come from Amazon was actually *used.* It was repackaged in an inverted shoddy shoebox, and dropped in the mail with stamps. I had to shake it and drop it in water to make sure it wasn't a bomb. This was early on and I doubt it was a winning bidder reselling, so perhaps this one came from the NY guy's personal Unabomber collection.

I'm surprised the digital camera ($200 value, if that) went for more than Celine. Or perhaps the same person took both to take the camera to Celine. I'm busily ratholing my bid bucks for the next big trip. Too bad they're not footing the flight for Phil Collins.

I'm uncomfortable with them giving out the names of people who win the high-end items (including the talkabouts). Didn't think they'd do that to advertise the site, but I suppose first name and last initial is fine.

Looking forward to the next CR email to see your royals in lights. I'm still pursuing mine.

Off to bid on the chess set... /images/graemlins/smile.gif


serling

[serling]

The latest Belle Rock promotion is pretty fantastic, particularly to us whores who have already played through our waging requirements and are still playing at the same casinos for fun (I know, pure insanity).

In three stages over the next three weeks, they're giving away a total $750 for a total $750 deposit (credits, actually -- I'm now cursing the day I selected $US). Granny, did you get the same offer or did you get a bigger one?

serling

[GrannyMae]

JUST got it.

same offer, but what an awesome offer. only 10X WR and BJ allowed

<font color="green">This voucher entitles you to a 750 casino credit bonus

It's true! Join us for a jubilee and YOU will get 750 casino credits just for taking up this unbeatable offer over the next 3 weeks!

There are 3 EASY STAGES to this promotion and you WIN MORE AND MORE, AT EVERY ONE OF THEM!!!

Offer 1: Buy 150 casino credits, Get 150 casino credits
Offer 2: Buy 250 casino credits, Get 250 casino credits
Offer 3: Buy 350 casino credits, Get 350 casino credits

We will send you a reminder and invitations each week to claim the next offer. We don't want you to miss out on your FREE CASH!


That's a total credit bonus of 750 free on any one of
your accounts at the following casinos:

River Belle
Showdown
Lucky Nugget
Aces High
Home Casino The Gaming Club
Jackpot City

Please note that you will need to take up ALL THREE OFFERS of this promotion, in order to qualify for the full bonus amount of 750 casino credits.

i.e. You will not get the bonus at the second or third offers if you do not PURCHASE AND CLAIM the correct amounts during the first and second stages respectively.

Here's how it works:

OFFER 1 - June 4 to June 8:
Deposit 150 casino credits at any one of the Belle Rock Gaming casinos of your choice between 6pm EST on June 4 and 6pm EST on June 8 and you will get 150 casino credits FREE!

Once you have made your 150 casino credit purchase for Offer 1, click through to the following URL to claim your FREE CASH: www.bellerockgaming.com/g1 (http://www.bellerockgaming.com/g1)

OFFER 2 - June 11 to June 15:
Deposit 250 casino credits between 6pm EST on June 11 and 6pm EST on June 15 and you will get 250 casino credits FREE!

OFFER 3 - June 18 to June 22:
Deposit 350 casino credits between 6pm EST on June 18 and 6pm EST on June 22 and you will get 350 casino credits FREE!

Claim your FREE CASH:

During each promotional stage, follow these easy steps to get your FREE CASH:
Make the required deposit using ANY purchase method at ANY one of the Belle Rock Gaming casinos where you have an existing real money casino account
Claim your free cash by clicking through to the link provided for each stage of the promotion (see above). remember that you can only claim this bonus ONCE and it must be claimed on the account that you made the deposit on, i.e. for Stage 1, click through here.

Enter the Gaming Account number on which you made the required purchase and claim your FREE CASH!
</font>

<font color="red"> Terms of Offer:


Each offer may be claimed only once. Only one bonus will be granted across all your gaming accounts.
This offer is only valid during the stated promotional period.
This offer excluse play in any of the Belle Rock Gaming Poker Rooms.
A total maximum bonus of 750 casino credits is applicable.
This offer is divided up into three stages and only valud in the respective period:
offer 1: 100% cash back when you deposit 150:
valid between 6pm EST on June 4 and 6pm EST on June 8.
offer 2: 100% cash back when you deposit 250:
valid between 6pm EST on June 11 and 6pm EST on June 15.
offer 3: 100% cash back when you deposit 350:
valid between 6pm EST on June 18 and 6pm EST on June 22.
Offer 2 is only valid if offer 1 has been taken up.
Offer 3 is only valid if offer 1 &amp; 2 have been taken up.
This bonus offer will only be granted once the casino credits that you are required to purchase reflect in the gaming account of your choice.
All claims must be submitted within the promotional period stated above
In the interest of fair Internet Gaming, the bonus and deposit amount must be wagered TEN times before any withdrawal will be processed
This withdrawal requirement exclues wagers on Baccarat, Craps, Roulette, Roulette Royale, Sic Bo, Jacks or Better Video Poker, Jacks or Better Power Poker and 10 Play Jacks or Better Power Poker.
The decision of the Casino Manager is final and no correspondence will be entered into
</font>

[Tuco]

Wow.

Do all whores get this email? or only those that partake in *ahem* less than impressive EV pursuits...

Tuco.

[gabyyyyy]

[ QUOTE ]
JUST got it.

same offer, but what an awesome offer. only 10X WR and BJ allowed

This voucher entitles you to a 750 casino credit bonus

It's true! Join us for a jubilee and YOU will get 750 casino credits just for taking up this unbeatable offer over the next 3 weeks!

There are 3 EASY STAGES to this promotion and you WIN MORE AND MORE, AT EVERY ONE OF THEM!!!

Offer 1: Buy 150 casino credits, Get 150 casino credits
Offer 2: Buy 250 casino credits, Get 250 casino credits
Offer 3: Buy 350 casino credits, Get 350 casino credits

[/ QUOTE ]
Holy moly, Must be nice to have 700 bucks just to whore around lol. Need any yardwork done? Fake teeth cleaned? Soiled nightgowns bleached? I can barely get a bankroll together to play poker.

Yes I am sad character.

Continue...

[shandrakor]

It doesn't seem to mention it in the mail...is there any reason to suggest that people who didn't recieve this mail can't do the bonus?

[GrannyMae]

i would call and ask. i bet you CAN do it. the links in the email are not specific to me.

also, like i said in an earlier post, i am doing stage 1 with no autoplay adjustments, stage 2 with the "adde fixes" and stage 3 i will let ed miller tell me how to bet.

i will post the results of all as i go. i made the $150 depo yesterday for stage 1 and am just waiting for my funds.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/d/az.gif

[shandrakor]

I'll test it out once I've got money in NETeller again. It's a race to see whether Poker Stars or Captain Cooks wants to pay me back the fastest.

My money's on Stars.

[GrannyMae]

i would not reccomend trying it unless they tell you ok. call the toll free. don't mention anything about blackjack etc. just ask them if this is open to all.

let us know

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/_950/call.gif

[shandrakor]

Customer service didn't know crap about this promotion, I had to explain it four times to her. Then she put me on hold, I sat there for 10 minutes, and then it hung up.

I'll try one more time.

[shandrakor]

Try #2 yielded: "I'm sorry, I cannot find that promotion in my system" and then she tried to fob me off on some sort of slots promotion where I can win $15,000.

At this point, I'm just going to try it when my money comes in. What's the worst thing that can happen? There's no numbers hidden in the link Granny posted, and the page on the other side asks for an account number, so clearly it's not a granny-specific page...

[GrannyMae]

just make sure that you don't wager a dime until you get the bonus money awarded. if you try it and start wagering, you may be tempted to keep playing. if you get denied the bonus, take it all out. there is no reason to do a non-restricted deposit until your whoring opportunities are exhausted.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/h0/crazy2.gif

[shandrakor]

Don't worry, I'm no stranger to whoring. Been doing it since January, and bought my new computer with entirely bonus-wrought funds.

[serling]

Curiously, I received another email with a slightly different offer. Same promotion ID (if anyone wants to try calling and giving a number with some authority, it's 4327), but whereas the first one was for 150/250/350, this one was 100/200/300. I know different people have different offers, but I wonder why I received two.

I emailed Belle Rock and received a response from Party support; they said I had to complete the requirements in both emails (they misinterpreted the second email as the second stage). I emailed again to correct and they asked for copies of both emails.

I just ignored it because I wanted to keep my sanity, plus I just received the $150 bonus.

I set autoplay to bet $2/hand for 2000 hands (I tend to bet over the minimum), went out, and came back to see standard deviation was unkind: -218. So I lost the entire bonus plus $68. Shades of my first deposit bonus.

A bummer, but I'm not too particularly worried about this; I expect to make it back on stages 2 and 3.

I'll now go wait by my mailbox for the Lord of the Rings chess set that I just won.


serling

[DanS]

So was there ever a determination made if this bonuses was a 'targeted' bonus, i.e., one that you had to be personally offered, a la Party's "reloadnow"?

Dan

[GrannyMae]

I just ignored it because I wanted to keep my sanity, plus I just received the $150 bonus.

i got a second one yesterday for the $600 total as well. yes, it is the same promo id, but the links are different. did you find out whether we could do both?? i'll ask today. also, i *finally* won the motorola talkabouts.. woooo

my "stage 1" did not go great last night, but sicko me took it to A&amp;F and in 15 minutes ran it back up to $340 total, then back down to $304 and cashed out. net profit stage one = $154

after the 3k hands:

started with $300

http://free.one.picturehost.co.uk/%21%21%21tlnstage1.JPG

took this to VP and ran it up

http://free.one.picturehost.co.uk/%21%21%21tlnstage1vp.JPG



i'll let you know later if we can do the $600 one too.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/k/llying.gif

[Baulucky]

You are a hell of a whore!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[GrannyMae]

You are a hell of a whore!!

awwww, shucks...

this may be the nicest thing anyone has ever said to me here

http://www.anchoredbygrace.com/smileys/blinking1.gif

[shandrakor]

DanS - we still don't know whether it's invite only or not, and my money is being slow to cashout to NETeller. I bet many people would appreciate it if you were to give it a shot and let us all know if it works...

[DanS]

Hey Shandrakor,

Kind of janky of me, but I was hoping that somebody that's already started the process could do the dirty work for me (us). I had a pending Neteller withdrawal (an amount that would cover all three deposits) that's past the reversible stage, so I might give it a try if my Wells Fargo credit card gets accepted at LN. Otherwise, Captain Cook's here I come!!!

Dan

[shandrakor]

Well, I may be SOL unless Captain Cooks or Stars hurries up with their cashout anyway. Probably shouldn't have let my money get tied up 100% like that, but I didn't expect a juicy, time-critical bonus to come along so quickly.

But then, there's still another 31 hours left before it's too late, so I'm not quite screwed yet.

[Simon Diamond]

I've gone ahead and deposited the $150, so if the bonus does hit my account I will let you know.

If not, I don't see as I have lost anything - I'm assuming I can simply cash it out.

Simon

[shandrakor]

And I'm about to do the same. Surprisingly enough, Captain Cooks won the race. I tsk in the general direction of Pokerstars.

[Homer]

I've gone ahead and deposited the $150, so if the bonus does hit my account I will let you know.

If not, I don't see as I have lost anything - I'm assuming I can simply cash it out.

Simon

Any word yet, Simon? I'd love to get in on this!

[serling]

When I first saw your screenshots, I thought, "Confound it if that old goatwhore got another royal." Then I read through and calmed down.

Outside of any bonuses and in between Stages, I royal-chased and played Jacks or Better and dropped another $250. Hmph. This Lord of the Rings chess set is costing me more and more. I'm now going to be good and wait until Stage 2 before playing anymore.

Here're the emails I'd sent to Belle Rock before giving up for fear they may say the $750 one was incorrect and I was only qualified for the $600 (and by then they'd credited me with the $150 bonus anyway):


Hi Belle Rock --

I received two of these promo emails. One is for a total of 600 credits,
the other is for a total of 750 credits.

Is there a mistake? Which one is correct? Can I use both? Both have the
same promo ID on them.


Thanks,

serling


Dear Serling,

Thank you for your email.

Kindly note that you will need to take up all thrree offers of this
promotion, in order to qualify for the full bonus amount of 750 casino
credits. You will not get the bonus at the second or third offers if you
do not purchase and claim the correct amounts during the first and
secondstages respectively.

We trust that we have been of assistance to you.

Should you have any further questions, comments or suggestions please
feel free to contact the friendly Belle Rock Gaming help desk which is
available twenty four (24) hours a day, seven (7) days a week for your
convenience.

Kindest regards,

Jason
Customer Service Representative



Hi Jason --

My question was that I received *two* emails for the same promo id 4237,
yet the *total* value was different.

One was for 600 credits (100/200/300 over three weeks) and the other was
for 750 credits (150/250/350 over three weeks). The 750 one I included in
my first email below.

I presume different promos are sent to different players, but it looks as
if I received both of them.

I just want to make sure this is correct before I make a deposit.
Obviously I will be going with the 750 offer, but I question why I
received two offers.


Thanks,

serling



Hi there Serling,

Thank you for e-mailing Belle Rock Gaming.
Kindly note that in order for us to better assist you regarding this matter please send us those e-mail you received regarding these two promotions.
As soon as we do receive this from you we will be able to send a request to our Promotions Department and ask them to give us some feedback regarding this.

Should you require further assistance and information, please feel free to contact our support desk. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for your convenience.

Kind regards,

Nicholas

Customer Service Agent

[GrannyMae]

we won't get both. received this today.

<font color="green">Hi there Granny,

Thank you for e-mailing Belle Rock Gaming Online Casino.

We do apologize that you have received the two promotions, unfortunately due to a technical error. Kindly note that the 600 promotion was issued to the lower tier group.


Should you require any further assistance,feel free to contact our support center is available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for your convenience.

Regards,

Melanie
Customer Services Consultant </font>

but then i got this.

woohoo
http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/i/birthday.gif


<font color="blue">Dear Granny,

We’ve noticed that you're celebrating your birthday today and compliments of Lucky Nugget Online Casino we’ve left a gift in your gaming account to have a very happy birthday on us.

Your 150 Casino Chip bonus will be waiting for you in your Gaming Account, tln0497xxxxr, when next you log into the casino!

Here's wishing you a lovely birthday. May your year ahead be filled with good luck and big winnings!

Could you kindly assist us by confirming your details on your account, so that you don't lose out on any gifts that we may send you in future.

The details on your account are listed as follows:

xxx
xxx
xxx
xxx

(H): xxxxxxxxxx

Should you prefer not to receive physical mail or gifts to your registered address or receive telephone calls, kindly reply to let us know that we may make a note of your preference on your account.

Once again, have a very happy birthday.

Yours sincerely,

Christa Gouws
Player Relations Team
</font>

[shandrakor]

Hmm. "targeted at a lower-tier group."

This bodes poorly for me getting in on the promotion. Out of curiousity - the one for 600 bonus - did that also direct you to the /g1 page, or did it have a different web page for that bonus?

[GrannyMae]

i noticed that the url's were different, but assume that was for accounting purposes. i only filled out the form for the $750 one, which was completely different.

i would actually say this bodes well for you to get the $600 one. that appears to be the standard one. $600 is still awesome tho.

simon has tried it, and i am sure he will have the answer today on whether it was accepted. i don't know which one he tried. i assume it was the $750 one. maybe he should have tried the $600 one. why don't YOU try the $600 URL?

http://www.anchoredbygrace.com/smileys/Flahssssss.gif

[serling]

That's fantastic, Granny (though wasn't your birthday last month?)! Belle Rock/Lucky Nugget really is head and shoulders above the rest of the casinos.

I received $20 from Casino Rewards for being one of the people who lost the most last month. Ack. Some consolation.

To Simon et al. -- the common URL for the $600 bonus is the link Granny mentioned. The other URL for $750 looks the same but takes you to what I suspect is a unique URL (judging from the string of dozens of characters/numbers) tied to the person's account.

serling

[shandrakor]

Just to make sure I understand you.

www.bellerockgaming.com/g1 (http://www.bellerockgaming.com/g1) is the website for the $600, and the $750 is the same, but with some hidden affiliate-esque numbers built in, correct?

If so, then I applied for the $600. Here's to hoping...

[Homer]

If so, then I applied for the $600. Here's to hoping...

Please post if it works, guinea pig.

[serling]

Correct. The www.bellerockgaming.com/g1 (http://www.bellerockgaming.com/g1) link goes to the $600 "To enter our Buy Get 100" promotion.

The other email gives the same ostensible link but when clicked takes you to the "To enter our Buy Get One Fifty" promotion.

Best of luck at getting one of the two!

serling

[MKR]

I called support to ask if I could get in on this promotion and was told it by invitation only.

Green with envy.

MKR

[jess72]

Darn, I just cleared Captain + $378 /images/graemlins/grin.gif And was going to try this one. Probably to late anyhoo.

[Simon Diamond]

Doesn't look like it's happening. Invitation only I assume.

Simon