KK vs AA

[mackthefork]

The last 3 times i've had KK in a SNG someone has had AA, i originally thought that AA over KK was extremely unlikely, however after some consideration if figured it's not quite as unlikely as may be imagined (i reckon about 24.5-1 to happen once at a 9 handed table when you have kings).

Is this approximately correct, any feedback appreciated.

Regards ML

[MEbenhoe]

The odds of having someone have KK and another person having AA at the same 9 handed table is approximately 1 in every 678 hands. The odds you stated of 1 in 24.5 hands is the odds of any player having a specific pocket pair at a 9 handed table (ex: the odds of any player having AA at a 9 handed table is 1 in 24.5)

Also 1 in every 27.6 hands that a player has KK someone will have AA.

[mackthefork]

I actually stated 24.5-1 which is the same as 1 in 25.5, my calculation is based on the fact i have 2 kings already, so there are 4 aces from 50 remaining cards (you used 220-1 which is all 52 cards),
(50/4=12.5)x(49/3=16.33)=204.16

204.16/8=25.52 or 24.52-1

i believe this is correct though i am open to corrections.

Regards ML

[MEbenhoe]

The reason for the difference in math is that your equation is done as if two kings were taken out of the deck and handed to you and then the remaining 8 hands were dealt rather than the odds of both happening in a random 9 handed deal.

[mackthefork]

Absolutely you are correct about this, however surely if i do have 2 kings in the question surely it is fine to do this
to get the answer, appreciate your input though.

Regards ML

[BradleyT]

I had KK 6 times the other night at $2/$4 and ran into AA on 3 of those occasions.

It hurts.