Face-first into the $22 wall

[William Wilson]

I need advice. I've been trying to build my bankroll through SnGs, and have been using a progressive strategy proposed on this site. Things have been going very well relative to my expectations except that I'm getting crushed at the $22 level. Some stats:

33 games at $5.50
ROI 43.8% (seems high, but I've calculated it twice)
ITM 42%

61 games at $11
ROI 20.7%
ITM 42%

25 games at $22
ROI -31.3% /images/graemlins/confused.gif
ITM 32% (still no wins in five HU chances)

I know these are small samples, but I'm really feeling the difference in levels, especially on or near the bubble.

Should I keep banging away at the $22 level until I can hold my own, or should I decide to punch my weight at the $11 level and move up when I have more bankroll?

Is there anything anyone has done -- books they've read, posts they've studied -- to help themselves over an obvious learning plateau?

All guidance is appreciated.

Many thanks,
Bill

[PrayingMantis]

You didn't specify what site you're playing, so I would guess it's PS - since you have results for 5.5$, that are not availabe on Party.

Few thoughts, regarding the somewhat higher buy-ins: the super tight (wait for others to bust, then outplay the lucky fools...) strategy for the 5.5$ is not necessarily good for 22$. You should adjust better to your opponents, play some marginal hands in order to try and hit big, apply more aggression (i.e, bluff the bluffable, who are not common at the 5.5$), and play looser on the bubble. My observation, is that the middle buy-ins (22$ included) tend to play too weak-tight, as they consider it as better poker. Thus, you should take advantage of it by stealing more, and play an overall looser (yet cautious) game.

Apparently, you should also improve your HU game. The jump in ROI, if you can change some 2nd's into 1st's, is huge. You can pracitce playing HU SNGs, or simply thinking much more about HU. Few pointers: Aggressiveness (extremely important), randomizing your game, and reading capabilities. The ability to adjust and read your opponent, is something most players don't have. Think about what your opponent is doing, what he's afraid of, and forget (almost) everything you know about PF starting hands groups etc. Just play your opponent. That's my opinion, at least. Good luck.

[citanul]

I'd suggest moving back down to the 10+1s for a bit. Your ROI stat took a disturbingly large hit between the 5s and the 10s and it looks like although you were making money at that level, you were below what most on this site say a decent player should be making at that level.

I think most are looking for ITM~.4 ROI~.4 but i'm not sure about that exactly. But I'm pretty sure ROI~.2 is not good.

Good luck,

citanul

[TylerD]

Try the $16 turbo tournaments at Stars. You need to adjust your play to the faster paced tournament and your variance is likely to higher, but you still get the $10 loose players who are even looser due to the structure and of course the buy-in is slightly more so you'll hopefully be making more money.

The same applies, to a lesser extent, to the $27 games which are MUCH softer (IMO) than the $33 games.

[Tosh]

I think first you should collect some larger sample sizes before getting too worried.

[William Wilson]

Mantis,

Yeah, it's on Stars. It's interesting to hear your idea of opening up a bit at the higher levels and relying on reads. This will be a big jump for me, and I hope I can pull it off without getting too loose.

Also, after my post, I played 11-straight SnGs spread out between $22 and $11 withoout placing ITM. After forcing myself to play crazy tight -- and FINALLY winning an $11 -- I realized there could have been a significant tilt factor to my recent problems.

I do like the idea of the turbo $15s. I'll give that a shot once my BR recovers.

Thanks for the replies,
Bill

[pzhon]

Tosh is right. You need more data.

Here are the results of my first 10 $10+1 SNGs on UB:

1/2/3/lost: 1/3/3/3
ITM: 70%
ROI: 81%

I had some problems heads-up, but earlier, everything worked. What an easy game poker is!

Here are the results of my first 10 $10+1 SNGs on Party:

1/2/3/lost: 0/1/0/9
ITM: 10%
ROI: -73%

When I had cards, someone had better, or sucked out anyway. These games are a crapshoot, unbeatable!

Are SNGs so much tougher on Party? Ok, I lied. The second batch was not from Party, it was the second set of 10 $10+1 SNGs that I played on UB. If anything, I was a better player, and there is no reason for me to do so much better in the first 10 than the second. The swings can be brutal.

FWIW, after 40 more, my stats were

1/2/3/lost: 7/11/6/36
ITM: 40%
ROI: 21%

Seems much more reasonable, right? However, this is still far too little data; I was ahead by one standard deviation. The 90% confidence interval on my ROI from 60 SNGs was from -14% to +56%. After 110 SNGs, the confidence interval tightened so as not to contain 0%, so I figure I probably make back the rake, but it is hard to say more without a lot more data.

[ QUOTE ]

(still no wins in five HU chances)

I know these are small samples, but I'm really feeling the difference in levels, especially on or near the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's good to try to find qualitative differences like that. I recommend looking through the archives of this forum on bubble play. You will see more ideas than correct ideas, but I think that will help more than any book.

Also, make sure you understand the tremendous difference between heads-up play and 4-handed play. If you are a decent player before HU play, you are probably too tight and passive HU. Read the short-handed section of HPFAP. Experiment with betting and raising every ace and king, ignoring the board; watch this silly strategy steam-roll tight, passive players. Make sure it won't crush you.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about what your opponent is doing, what he's afraid of, and forget (almost) everything you know about PF starting hands groups etc. Just play your opponent

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this as heads up advice - i got an idea from someone ages ago about practising heads up - i played the lowest limit NL HU tourneys on paradise and put masking tape over the screen where my cards appeared - it took me 6 tourneys before i won one and stopped

it was instructive if you can bear paying for the lesson - i plan to do it again sometime soon to see if i've gotten better at it

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[SparkMan]

I would suggest playing the $10+1 level at paradise until you are sure you're playing well enough to consistantly beat it. There's lots of action and the blind structure is reasonable. Start with 1000 chips and first round is 5/10 blind.

[William Wilson]

[ QUOTE ]
I played the lowest limit NL HU tourneys on Paradise and put masking tape over the screen where my cards appeared.

[/ QUOTE ]

Teach me more, Obi Wan.

[Chief911]

I think you need to MUCH more thoroughly beat the 10/1 before you start hitting the 20/2. Although my observation is for Party, I feel that after you get comfortable and have a good ROI/ITM on Party 10/1, the 20/2 is almost a bit easier, as I think the players there are easier to read than your average 10/1 throw some money in the pot and slosh around guys.

But take your time. This isn't some sort of sprint. Beat one level, then slowly move up. And I force myself to play atleast 200 SNG's at each level before I've moved up (Although that was only 5/1 and 10/1).

Nick

[Beavis68]

It sounds to me like you are playing too much. Go back to the 5s or 10s but dont play more the 2-3 per day. These games are stressful when played well, nothing like haveing to toss KK when an A hits the flop or the turn, and then having to toss A-J on a flop of A 10 4 because someone came over the top of you - then getting down the final four short stacked. It takes concentration, patience, and nerves.

You need to recognize when to fold, and when not too. Getting ran over a few times, it is tough to come back and play a good game. Especially if you made some laydowns that you dont know if they were right or not.