Postflop basics: flopping a good draw

[Nate tha' Great]

Encouraged by last night's finish I decided to try my hand at another MTT. $50+$5 Party NL. I'm shortstacked early due to a couple of poorly-conceived steal attempts.

MP3 (t1275)
NateThaGreat (t480)
Button (t965)
SB (t1965)
BB (t1770)
UTG (t1215)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t290)
MP1 (t935)
MP2 (t815)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: NateThaGreat is CO with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls t20, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to t40</font>, MP3 folds, NateThaGreat calls t40, Button folds, SB calls t30, BB folds, MP1 calls t20.

Flop: (t180) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, NateThaGreat ____

It seems to me that I have three viable options:

a) Check through and take the free card, hoping to double up if I turn a straight.
b) Underbet the pot, in an effort to commit people in the event that I make my draw and/or gain a free river card and/or take it right there without risking much.
c) Push in, expecting to probably take it right there, and having a lot of outs if I'm called.

So I guess this is a two-part question:
1) What would your play be if this were the first hand of the tournament and all stacks were equal?
2) How does your answer change in consideration of my chip position?

[rtrombone]

If everyone has equal stacks I bet 120 (2/3 the pot; this is my standard bet size). If the turn is a brick I check behind. If check-raised what I do depends on the size of the raise, who the raiser is and whether there are callers/cold-callers.

Short-stacked, you push.

I don't like checking because you may not get paid if a nine falls, and by betting you may be able to see two cards for the price of a single bet.

It's not worth stealing until the blinds get to at least 50/100.

[ipp147]

Hi Nate,

I'm quite a newbie to poker so you (or anyone else) please feel free to tell me if my thoughts are incorrect or flawed.

If this was early on I would certainly bet maybe half the pot on the semi bluff with the knolwedge that you can fold to a reraise right there or fold to a heavy bet on the turn if you missed your outs and still be in good shape.

With your chip position however the decision is alot tougher.

Amongst those three people in the hand you can see at least one of them holding A10/AJ/J10 or perhaps a set so I don't think underbetting the pot is going to take it right there.

I think a push would also get a call (this at Party!) from a hand you are an underdog to.

Although it shows weakness I think I would check here with the turn becoming a fold or push scenario. I fold if the turns a blank and push if I make my straight or another heart hits.

My underlying thought is that you can still see plenty of hands with a better chance of doubling through than at this point

[Mackas]

1. Early in the tournament with equal stacks I would make a pot sized raise and hope to take it there. Whether I bet again on the turn if it is checked to me and I miss depends on what the card is, how the board looks and based on all that whether I think a bet will take it there and then.

I would generally raise the pot as a standard bet size but was interested to see someone else who bets 2/3 pot as a standard raise. I was wondering what the logic is behind that. Its not a criticism because to be honest the only reason I bet the pot is force of habit and I haven't thought about it in a while. Originally I chose pot size as standard bet because it was generally enough to scare weak hands out if I was bluffing and not too strong a bet to scare a decent hand out or discourage him from coming over the top if I had a monster. Anyway that's by the by but I woudl be interested for thoughts and reasons for particular standard bet sizes.

2. Your situation here is trickier. There's 180 in the pot and by my calculation you have 440 left in front of you. I don't think a small raise is going to achieve much. Unless you've seen these players folding a lot to such raises I don't see them all folding. All you do is commit yourself further to the pot hoping to catch good with little chance of picking up the money there and then. Secondly a pot sized raise commits you to the pot. If you miss on the turn you are nearly committed to calling a bet (depending on the card that comes off) given that if you don't you'll be down to just over 200. And by only raising the pot size you have also minimised your chance of picking the pot up there and then, which is the ideal result in this situation. Soooo, I think all in all this is a push.

By pushing, hopefully you'll take the 180 in the middle which is a great result, increasing your stack by a bit less than 50%. If you don't, you have at least 8 outs and maybe even 14 (the remaining Ks &amp; Qs to give you an overpair to the flop) plus a backdoor flush draw. I just see little point in messing around here. In passing, I think a check is weak and might also cut down on your outs (for example letting A9 or some such in so that a Q is no longer good for you.

So all in all - push, hoping to pick it up there and then and if you don't you'll get to see both cards without any further decisions and still have a decent chance of improving to the best hand.

I don't generally like overreacting to a smallish stack (you're only half stacked here with the blinds still small) when patience normally will suffice to get you back in it this early on but this is a decent situation and IMO I think you just gotta push.

GL

Mackas

[Stoneii]

Given your failed steal attempts I guess the table will only pay heed to an all-in bet from you, anything less and I expect someone will jump on it anyway.

With 8 and maybe 14 (I expect a turn Q or K to be ahead here too with your kicker as AQ or AK must surely bump it preflop).

I go all-in.

stoneii

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I wouldn't push. Some idiot will probably call you. Even if someone with pocket 22 called you here, despite your large number of outs, you'd still be eliminated nearly half the time. No sense flipping a coin for no reason, you'll have to do that another ten times before you win anyway.

I also don't like a small bet. You're just asking to get check-raised.

Check and take the freebie if you can.

Sometimes I might take the options of higher variance in a ring game. There, I would often push knowing that with up to 14 outs, I might actually be the favorite if called, and that the overall semi-bluff value of the play would warrant that choice. However, in a tournament I want low variance. Keep your chips for another hand if you miss this one.

al

[patrick dicaprio]

to me this is an easy push. you have a good draw plus two overcards and if you bet you are committing a lot of your stack anyway. if you push i am not sure whether i would rather take the pot or get called since you have such a good chance of doubling. if the MP raiser has a hand like AJ he will certainly call giving you a good chance at doubling through.but given that he would probably bet with AJ his most likely hand is two high cards that missed so there is a good chance you can take the pot right there which isnt too bad.

Pat

[Jason Strasser]

Hey Nate,

You only have one move here I think.

1) You can't check. Your hand is going to be the favorite at this point, and you are a short stack. This is a golden chance to double up or take the pot. You can not give a free card with a stack this small.

2) You can't bet anything less than all in. This is because you are not going to be folding this hand after you make a bet. You just don't have enough chips.

Conclusion: Easy push. You get called, you have plenty of outs. I am happy to get called here as a short stack. I am also happy taking down the pot.

[Grivan]

You need to push here. Even if you get called you are going to be ahead most of the time. You are going to have 14 outs twice, and a runner runner flush draw. Also, you will have added equity from the chance that people will fold.

[DOTTT]

1. Early on I would bet 100 and hope to take it down right there.

2. Short stacked you have to push here. 180 is a significant addition to your stack. If someone who has a pair of jacks calls you you have 14 out to improve. If your called by two pair or a set, you still have 8 outs. You definitely don't want to under bet, or check this pot.

[t_perkin]

To me this is a check.

You are probably NOT the fav. here despite your outs (against one player). And your Q and K outs are quite likely to be tainted anway.

You are very unlikely to take it here considering your previous play and the fact that it is still very early in the tournament. But most importantly the fact that this board is likely to have connected with quite a few players.

If you hit A or 9 then you are likely to get paid off A LOT (Q will call to a 9 and hands like AK, AQ, AJ, AT will call to an A or any made sets and two pairs will probably call to either).

I would be very wary if the Q lands, and quite wary if the K lands. I would probably still just check down and maybe call a small bet.

If nothing much hits then you can safely fold. You still have T440 that is FAR from dead. You have 21BB - late in a tournament I would be thrilled to have that. Early in a tournament it is obviously not so hot, but you are still far from dead.

Plus if a heart lands you could play on the turn.

My biggest ever win in NL ring came with a hand identical (with exception of suits and player positions) to this. I checked and hit the 9 on the turn. Got paid off for my full stack against JJ, Q9 and AQ.

Tim

[Nate tha' Great]

I pushed and was not called.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I might take the options of higher variance in a ring game. There, I would often push knowing that with up to 14 outs, I might actually be the favorite if called, and that the overall semi-bluff value of the play would warrant that choice. However, in a tournament I want low variance. Keep your chips for another hand if you miss this one.

al

[/ QUOTE ]

Perversely, I think the opposite is true. I'd be more inclined to play this conservatively in a ring game, or in an SNG. But in a Party MTT, with the payout structure being what it is, I'm more inclined to try and double up when I can, especially with a stack of this size ... I don't think that all my all-ins should be on coin flips, mind you, but I don't want to be in a position wherein I land a big pair, or find myself in a very advantageous postflop position, and doubling up would only get me back to T1000.

FWIW, I don't think I'm quite a favorite if called ... I'm almost exactly 50% against a hand like AJ, but more like 30% against a set. But I'd be willing to take a 40% shot considering the (strong, IMHO) chance of picking up the pot right away, plus the fact that I really wouldn't mind taking a higher-risk approach at this point.