Good or bad play at the Taj at the 200-400 level

[ARomeo73]

What do you guys think of this situation?
N/L Hold Em at the Taj 20 min rounds.
My table just broke and I was at a new table for only 15 mins or so, the blinds just increased and were 200-400 and a 75 ante I had about 12,000 and so did most of the others at the new table.
I looked down in middle position and had the J /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif i was 1st in and I made it 1,200 on a steal, the guy next to me cold calls everyone else folded. He has about 35,000.
Folp T /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I bet 4,000 he called
Turn J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I went all in with about 6,600
he thought about it forever and then called

What does everyone think of this?
Also, what do you think he had?

[slogger]

I think you've got to be more concerned about the flop call. With what hands would he coldcall a MP pre-flop raise (with at least 3-4 players yet to act) and then call a larger than pot-sized flop bet on a T88r flop? ATd, perhaps? A9d? Seems a little weak, but you have not provided any read on this player, other than that he seems to be the table's chip leader.

I think you may be behind an overpair (most likely QQ), but the lack of a PF re-raise seems odd. A9d gives him more than enough outs to call your turn all-in, but again, seems like a strange hand to play for a raise in his position, unless you read him as a guy who's looking to play sheriff with his big stack.

[cferejohn]

Sure looks like an overpair to me. I'm guessing QQ, since AA or KK almost certainly would have raised preflop.

I suppose 99 is possible as well, but "ugh". I wouldn't have pushed the turn. Pretty much any better hand calls, and most worse hands will fold (if he'll call w/99 here, well, good for you, but I think mostly he lays that down here).

Maybe AT? Hard to imagine he would cold-call a preflop raise with that, but who knows, maybe he's an idiot...

[MrGo]

I put him on 77 or 99

[MrGo]

I don't think an overpair is in play. If he had QQ, KK, or AA, he would of re-raised our hero all in on the flop, or at least I would have.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think an overpair is in play. If he had QQ, KK, or AA, he would of re-raised our hero all in on the flop, or at least I would have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I would have too, but I'm having a hard time putting him on something else. I guess a medium pair is possible, but man, that's a pretty dicey call on the river then.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe AT? Hard to imagine he would cold-call a preflop raise with that, but who knows, maybe he's an idiot...

[/ QUOTE ]

'cuz I'd *never* cold call a raise w/AT...

Oh yeah right (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tourn&Number=543311&Forum= ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,All_Forums,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,&Words=&Searchpage=20&Limit=25&Main=543311&Searc h=true&where=&Name=2031&daterange=&newerval=&newer type=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post543311)

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think of this situation?
N/L Hold Em at the Taj 20 min rounds.
My table just broke and I was at a new table for only 15 mins or so, the blinds just increased and were 200-400 and a 75 ante I had about 12,000 and so did most of the others at the new table.
I looked down in middle position and had the J /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif i was 1st in and I made it 1,200 on a steal, the guy next to me cold calls everyone else folded. He has about 35,000.
Folp T /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I bet 4,000 he called
Turn J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I went all in with about 6,600
he thought about it forever and then called

What does everyone think of this?
Also, what do you think he had?

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not sure I like it, the jack on the turn didn't really help you against hands you are behind. And I think he has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]

Im not sure I like it, the jack on the turn didn't really help you against hands you are behind. And I think he has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it me or do these two statements not jibe? If I knew he had AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I would go all-in in a second as a 65% favorite...

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Im not sure I like it, the jack on the turn didn't really help you against hands you are behind. And I think he has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it me or do these two statements not jibe? If I knew he had AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I would go all-in in a second as a 65% favorite...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't put him on that until he took so long to think about the call. Reading the post up until that point my guess was an overpair. But yes if that is what he has I like pushing.

[DogFace]

I've gotta think that your two pair is good. My guess is he had a high pocket pair or possibly AJ.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I've gotta think that your two pair is good. My guess is he had a high pocket pair or possibly AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, high pocket pair is ahead of him (since there is a pair of 8s on the board).

[fnord_too]

I'd put him on 99. I don't think he has an 8 because he paused too long before calling, but that is using info not available at the time of the bet.

Tough spot, I probably check the turn, I'd be too afraid he was slow playing an 8. (With no read yet on the guy he could be playing something like A8s or 89s, or he could have called with any two cards figuring to outplay you after the flop). Of course a check gives him a green light to bluff and force you into a difficult decision.

[ARomeo73]

Well, it turns out Mr. Chip-leader had the Q/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif and as the river brought the 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif I was headed for my car. Then on the way home I thought about it and decided that there was only two hands he could have given the situation (being that he was a fairly reasonable player from what I observed).

Lets look further:
1) No re-raise preflop = Indicates to me that AA, KK or AK are probably not held.
2) The fact that he called in the middle prefolp = Chances are that he doesn't hold 98, 87, T8, A8 or any other marginal hand containing an 8.
3) Call of a pot sized flop bet = Tells me that he has my TJ beat or is close with any of the following: AT, QQ, JJ, TT (not likely), 88 (would be a miracle) or is on a draw maybe QJ or KQ.
4) His long period of pondering on my all-in bet on the turn = Tells me the he has a genuine tough call and he probably has QQ, QJ(he can't think this would be good), AT(likely would fold with a big bet on the J turn) or K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
So it boils down to QQ or KQ flush draw(which is less likely) on the turn and I am in trouble against both hands. But how do I know? Am I giving him too much credit on my reasoning of his possible holdings? Should a reasonable player fold QQ to a 7k bet with that board on the turn(I think I would putting the bettor on AA, KK, JJ, or TT)? How do you guys rate the overall situation?

[ZootMurph]

Was this the Monday night tournament?

Anyway, with his preflop call, he has to have either overcards or a pocket pair. When the pair hits the board, and he calls your pot sized bet (pot at 3750, you bet 4k), you have to know he has an overpair. A T or 8 are doubtful, and I also don't see him calling that big of a bet with AK, AQ, and maybe calling with AK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or KQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (don't see him calling preflop with AJ, AT, KJ, or KT, which you would be ahead of). So you are behind most of the hands (3 of 27 possibilities) he could be playing at this point (AA=6, KK=6, QQ=6, JJ=6, AKs=1, AQs=1, KQs=1).

The J turn is an allin or check/fold... Since you have to guess you are behind almost everything, I'd check/fold and wait for another opportunity.

[ARomeo73]

[ QUOTE ]
Was this the Monday night tournament?


[/ QUOTE ]

This was last Tuesday's Tournament.