Raised where I should have folded?

Game is moderately tight, and I open limp in EP with QJs. I strongly considered folding, due to the fairly tight table. What do you think; would you limp in with it in EP in a typical game?


Anyway, button raises, both blind call as do I. 4 players.


Flop comes Q 6 2 twotone, none of my suit. It's checked to me and I bet to test button. Button calls, SB folds, BB check-raises, I 3-bet to get button out (AK etc). Button folds, BB calls.


The turn pairs the six, SB comes out betting. What would you do here? I dont think SB is capable of check-raising a six on the flop. I mostly put him on a Q. Would you fold here, given possible kicker problems? I raised. My rational: after 3-betting the flop, and raising the turn, he would most likely check the river to me with a Q. After this raise no more bets would go in, and if he would bet river (or 3-bet turn) I can lay down with good conscience IMO. I didnt know to much about this player, but if he's weak, he might lay down a better Q (slim chance). My other option would be to fold, but since he's the BB he might have a weaker Q combined with a flushdraw (note that the Q was not of the twotone suit). What do you think?


River was a blank and it went check,check.


Comments really appreciated.


Regards

You may want to think about check folding after the flop when it is check raised. In an article by Andy Glazer he made a good point about QJs. You are probably going to win small pots and lose big pots if all you make is a pair of queens or jacks because you are sucked in. The real profit from this hand is the straight and flush potential. Think about the hand that can call your pair/weak kicker. Only against very loose players will you make a medium sized pot and win.

Ikke,


After 3-betting the flop, why wasn't calling the turn considered with the intention of calling the river (unless you hit a jack)?


Regards,


Rick

It seems pretty obvious that you are "probably" beat at this point. 3-betting apparently gains you some equity if he'll fold KQ or maybe AQ. It also gains a little equity if both of you would check the river even when you call the 2-bet, and you win. Otherwise, it looks like the other options only LOSE more money.


Save underdog bets or raises for when it can win you the pot. Mom is right: When you are probably beat you should routinely check, call, or fold.


- Louie

Benefits of turn raise:


1) likely get to showdown for same price 2) opponent likely folds the same hand 3) get an extra bet if the jack comes, wher eyou might not otherwise 4) A worse queen my fold, and this is fine given that an A,K,Q, or 6 splits the pot, and the worse queen has 3 outs to win, unless it is a terrible queen.


cons of turn raise:


1) Opponent may be wise to your game and bet the river 2) You may have gotten to the showdown for 1 bet by just calling. 3) You may get 3 bet and lose your chance to catch a jack, or a 6, ace or queen for a split.


I think #3 is very important. You should probably just call here. you can always fold on the river if bet at again, or call there also for the same price.


I am guessing you were outkicked here, but you have 6-6.5 outs against KQ, and 4.5 against AQ. So I think calling here and folding on the river may be reasonable.


Folding to the flop check-raise is not so hot. The BB could put you on a flush draw. His bettting indicates this. So his action does not scream AQ. It does scream "I have at least a Q!" He Probably 4 bets with AQ though, leaving QJs, QTs and KQ as likely hands.


You gain a ton if he folds a QJ, though, and something if he folds a weaker Q. There are 8.5 BB in the pot after his bet. Folding is out of the question, as you have the odds to draw against KQ, and may have the best hand or be tied.


So let's say he has QJs, QTs, or KQ. He may also be a wimp with AQ, but this is not very likely.


KQ - 8 ways, the other 2 hands - 2 ways each.


So 2/3 of the time, you should call on the turn and fold on the river. With the other 2 your best play is to raise on the turn and bet the river, unless a ten hits.


you gain a small fraction of a bet when he folds QTs on the turn to your raise. You gain a lot if he folds QJs, but this is not very likely. You lose most of a bet if he would not have bet KQ on the river, and break even if he would bet KQ on the river - unless he would fold to your river raise if a J hits.


Since he puts you on a draw, he will call your river bet. So you should not make it, as he may check KQ to induce a bluff.


Given that he may not bet KQ on the end, you should just call the turn. You should bet the river if the flush card comes and you are checked to, unless it is a K. Of course, bet or raise with a river jack.


Good luck.


Dan Z.


Dan Z.

Preflop, limping in early with queen-jack suited is okay. Whether or not you choose to play this suited connector in this situation is simply not a major poker decision.


On the flop, I like your lead with top pair against three opponents despite there being a preflop raiser. If the button was raising preflop with ace-king or a pockect pair of jacks, tens, or nines give him a chance to fold. But when the button calls and you get check-raised, you need to realize that you are probably playing three outs. It is rare for someone to check-raise a flush-draw against two opponents including a preflop raiser. I think reraising is over playing your hand. Getting the button out just helps you lock up a good second place finish. Given his fold, the button probably had a worse hand than you and getting him out was not worth the cost of the extra bet coupled with threat of being four bet.


On the turn, having failed to improve, I think you should fold. Again, he probably has at least a bigger queen and maybe something more. You do not have enough outs to be chasing.

That's exactly what I said. I just said you should have slowed down on the flop and folded their. I think in the long run, you will save money on these plays.

Wouldn't it be better to raise the turn. Opponent may lay down a better Q right then. If opponent bets into you after calling your raise on the turn, you can lay it down. If opponent re-raises you, you can lay it down. The cost is the same as if you call the turn and the river. But the play is more aggressive.


Is this a plausible line of action?

It is if you think he will fold a better queen. But a guy with enough gamble in him to check-raise with something like king-queen when another player bets and a preflop raiser calls, is probably not going to let it go. If he has a hand like two pair or a set, there is no way he is folding.

At that moment I thought raising would most likely cost the same as calling him down, but has the advantage that a QJ or (if he's very weak) KQ would lay down. I also think, as Dan Z points out, that it isnt a bad thing that a weaker queen folds, given his chances to improvement to a better hand or a split pot. One disadvantage of the play that I didnt consider well enough was that if I was 3-bet I lost my chance of catching the jack. However I cant imagine enough hands he would 3-bet with where two pair would be good against.


Regards

I like your analyses. Good point about that "locking up a second place finish". Damn...at the moment I made the decision 3-betting the flop seemed automatic! :-)


Regards

Ikke,


I wasn't thinking that calling way the best play, but it certainly seemed worth considering.


Regards,


Rick

Ikke,


So who won, damnit!

Lol.....unfortunately he won with AQ.


Regards