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09-05-2001, 08:34 AM
OBSERVATIONS ON OVER AGGRESSIVE PLAYERS


These past number of sits have been particular interesting for me. Over the last few weeks, I have played in my usual poker games and have been reflecting on the different sittings. I have not had spectacular results by any stretch of the imagination. I am playing my usual game with usual results. What I do find interesting though is a trend of the regular core of players I play with and how aggressive they are.


I had a discussion on the ride home with a poker friend of mine (whom I owe a Fairbanks Steak dinner) regarding the different players (regulars) in the games in which we all play. The one thing we did not discuss which I thought about today was the over-aggressive play many of these players posses. Tendencies include pushing over cards all the way to the river, continually check-raise bluffing the turn (but rarely the river), pre-flop raising with any 2 cards (94 off comes to mind) when in late position with no one else in, Pushing an under pair with 4 over cards on board, etc. etc. etc. Much of our discussion last night focused on hand reading. He thinks it is an area he needs to work on. It is an area I constantly try to work on. After realizing how aggressive the games in our area are, I believe it to be extremely important.


There is a core of 5-10 players who will cold call raises and play as many hands as possible. Players playing a lot of hands are more difficult to put on a hand. However, I believe it is still possible if one is able to understand why they play so many hands. I believe I have discovered the reason why some of the regulars in our game play so many hands. They all think they can outplay each other every hand!! They all are very aggressive after the flop, they have decent to good hand reading abilities, and they play well after the flop with or without position. I understand and agree with the concept of true experts playing a few more hands. I think that all of these players truly believe they are experts/great players as they always try to outplay their opponent every hand no matter what the board and what they hold. Trying to outplay your opponent every hand is obviously the correct strategy. However, when a player plays 8 hands in a row for a raise, I would argue that it is impossible to outplay your opponents enough to take down all 8 pots. I have witnessed this mad shootout now for weeks and am fascinated by it.


Lets look at this concept a little further. Is it possible to outplay your opponent every hand? I would argue that it is. There is no doubt a correct play to outplay your opponent each and every hand. I will point to the Theory of Poker for this. I am also not asking if this is profitable as we all know it is because folding and saving money is to be considered outplaying your opponent since saving money is the same as making money. What I am asking, is it possible to WIN enough of these pots to make it MORE profitable than correct hold-em play following an expert strategy.


I would argue that it is not. By their play, these opponents are telling me they believe otherwise.


If asked, each of these players will tell you they are big winners in the game. I find it difficult to understand how a player can play 70% and more of hands they are dealt and still be a winner. I am not a statistical genius, but I am sure that I personally could not do this. My question is, can anyone? Is anyone good enough to play 2-3 times as many hands as the other players in the game and still be profitable? If so, would correct strategy be to always be over-aggressive while playing all of these hands?


I know of only one player I have ever played with who plays way too many hands and is still a big winner in the game. He is not over aggressive at all. He simply sees a lot of flops and then has an incredible ability to always know where he is and hardly ever gets trapped or pays off. He is the only player I have ever seen play this way and win. The majority of players I play with are the over aggressive type who play and push far too many hands and are not winners in the game. The true expert to whom I am referring usually tortures these over aggressive players. He catches them speeding all the time.


Many players love an action game with huge pots. While I play in this type of game very regularly, I am not sure it is my favorite or even most profitable. Personally, I like a few more passive opponents in the game. Continually playing with these super-aggressive opponents forces me to really play my A game. I find this to be good for my game, however, I am not sure if this type of game is the most profitable.


The games I have been playing in the last few months remind me of low-limit online games where everyone plays any 2 cards all the way no matter what the board or action. Reflecting back on hands turned over, I am truly amazed at the plays I see made. I cannot even fathom that they are correct, and know they will only lose money long term. I see these plays being made by players I once considered to be decent players; although I must confess, the recent patterns in a couple of players is really forcing me to rethink my position of respecting these players as good. At best, I am beginning to believe they are break even to small winners in the local games, but would get crucified if they were to travel and play.


By no means am I disrespecting this type of player. I would never do that because they have the ability to cost me more than anyone. Actually, just the opposite is true. I really respect them and try to avoid too many confrontations. The most beautiful thing is that none of them see ANY leaks in their games whatsoever. They do not try and improve and they do NOT respect any other players. The conversation that follows every hand tells me this and it is amazing to listen and follow these discussions. I just sit and listen to all of the advice and information being spouted about and it is mostly just plain bad discussion with wrong information and illogical reasoning. Yet everyone swears they are right!!! I have yet to hear one of them admit that it is even possible for someone else’s opinion to have a chance of being correct!! Each and every one of them knows they are correct yet they all disagree most of the time. It truly is fascinating.


For the most part, I refuse to discuss hands or strategy at the table. I do not feel it accomplishes anything productive. However, I must confess that I do like hearing the discussions I have been hearing. They tell me that some of these core players in my games think they are better than they are and that do not have any area of their game on which to improve. No matter how good anyone is at anything, I believe one must always work to improve and that there is, without a doubt, always room for improvement. Players who believe they are better than they are have the losing attitude as far as I am concerned. This type of attitude is what I feel will be the eventual undoing of some otherwise “better than average but over-aggressive bordering on maniacal players”.


Comments welcome.


Just some thoughts…


Michael D. (Soccer/Sucker Mike D.)

09-05-2001, 09:32 AM
Don't forget that the reason almost every poker player in the country is a loser is because of the rake. Without the rake, a table full of aggressive 70%ers will just pass the chips around. But the same players would likely do poorly in a table of 20%ers if they didn't adjust. This is an expected ramification of, "It's not how we play, it's how they play."


It's also why it looks so amazing when super lose players hang on to chips over weeks or months. If the whole table plays nearly the same way, as is often the case, the lose players aren't really giving up anything because there's no rocks there to trim a piece of the pie off the top.


Tommy

09-05-2001, 09:43 AM
Tommy,


I agree that the rake is a huge factor in why so many players lose.


The interesting thing about these games is not only are there a few rocks, but also a couple of very good players that are taking the money off the table. I did not mean to imply they were not losing. I believe they are losing and have no chance to win long term. Many of these players used to play 6-7 nights a week - now I only see them 1-2 or 2-3 times a week at the very most. Some also have jobs that bring in 6 figures plus annually. There are other signs that I will not go into here.


The swings are hysterical - One player was in a 15-30 game for 3000 - got down to last 50 - got within 200 of even and then back down to 200 when I left - all in a span of 5-6 hours. I was told that this person had gone through nearly this exact same swing in the 4 hours prior to when I got in the game - All I can say is WOW!!!


Just some thoughts...


Michael D. (Soccer/Sucker Mike D.)

09-05-2001, 10:15 AM
I think Mike has hit upon some interesting points, and let me add some personal experience to perhaps prove him right (painful as that is for me to admit).


I grew up in the games to which Mike refers. I was fairly clueless for the better part of two years, but I managed to stay afloat because there was a core of players not much better than I. More to the point, that core of weak players keeps the aggressors in chips, because they can outplay the amateurs most of the time, while still treading water against the small, but dangerous core of tight/aggressive players (not to mention any names, Kevin J).


Like any other virus, overaggressive play breeds overaggressive play. And, as Mike points out, some of those aggressors are very tough players and good readers. Once I learned who they were, I simply mimicked the players who seemed to beat those players consistently. Stay out of their way in early position, and hammer them when you think they are pulling a move. It wasn't foolproof, but it allowed me to sneak a few dollars out despite Hollywood's ruinous $5 rake.


Although I have a pretty good idea, I would be curious to know who Mike is talking about. I know of at least two, but you can e mail me with the rest. I never play there now, so no trade secrets are involved.

09-05-2001, 01:17 PM
Mike,


These players can't be winning. The best player in your games make 5 - 8 big bets every hour, and never loses. So these guys have to be getting killed.


The funny thing is that everyone thinks they are excellent at the game. Since I do not have years of casino playing, I put my thoughts out here for a cheap lesson on whether or not they fly.


As DS points out in TOP, poker has its "hustle" built in. You do not have to play badly to get players to sit with you, like you would at gin or chess. They have 8 other opponents and the luck of the cards to get them coming back.


Poker also appears much more simple than those other games, so it is very easy to think you are an expert at poker, when you know only a little.


Players who have styles like that will have swings that are through the roof. When I play live hold 'em games, my chips don't move very much. Online is a little different, beacause of the rate of play and the styles of the players.


I used to play a lot of blackjack, and spent some time play ing $10 blackjack recently to entertain a friend. You would not believe the lectures you hear from players in that game. This one guy had a strategy card in his hand and yells at me for a play. His friend then points out that my play agreed with the strategy card this guy was holding!


So, if there are "deluded experts" at a game a simple as basic strategy blackjack, there will be thousands of them at the poker tables.


Be thankul and play tight...


Dan Z.

09-06-2001, 12:37 AM
Good insights. I think a simple reason many players think they're better than they are is due to a little something called standard deviation. The type of player which you refer to can easily have an hourly SD of between 15-20 big bets/hr. If you take 100 segments of poker play, you can expect one of these segments to aproaches almost 3 standard deviations away from "true" performance. So it's easy to imagine the following logic:


Segment 1 (+5k)- Wow! Look at the money I'm making.. I'm up HUGE! I don't see anyone else taking this kind of $$ out of the game. Damn, I must be good!


Segment 2 (-7k) - Man! I can't believe the suckouts I'm getting! These guys play so awful, it seems every time I turn around someone gets there on me. I must REALLY be running bad....


Segment 3 (+4) - Finally! Things are back to normal. Damn, I'm good!


Segment 4 (-5k) - I guess swings are a part of the game. I can't wait until things get back to normal and my excellent play nets me another 5k run.


And so on it goes, the cycle continuing. A lot of times such a player disappears for a while or doesn't play nearly as often. All of a sudden, as if by magic, they seem to develop a life outside of poker and are now simply too busy to waste their time playing. This delays the process and if they haven't worked on their game, only prolongs the inevitable. You gotta love standard deviation. Without it, there'd be no game! IMO-

09-09-2001, 01:47 PM
This sounds like something I go through. I usually play very tight, often tighter than Sklanksy recommends. This alone seems to make a profit in most of the 8/16 and 15/30 games I play. However, sometimes I get to thinking that I am better than everyone at the table. This leads to playing a few more hands where I think my hand reading skills and post-flop play will generate even more profit. (This is a big problem when I play 3/6 or 4/8 while waiting for a higher stakes table).


Anyway, my hand reading skills are better, but I do get myself into traps. (E.g. Raising AJ or AT in early position and having a bigger Ace smooth call). Or raising with second pair, because I know someone is trying to steal the pot. (When I only play premium holdings - I rarely have this problem!)


So, sometimes I have a mental struggle that I have to overcome.


I found this thread helpful.