KQ flops 2 pair and aggression

[JrJordan]

One of my biggest problem hands right now is KQ (s and o) in trying to determine how to play it. Been in for one orbit, table is typical passive, although slightly tighter than normal. Today's dilemma...


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($102.05)
UTG+1 ($121.55)
Hero ($48.50)
MP2 ($47)
MP3 ($28.55)
CO ($112.35)
Button ($94.50)
SB ($47)
BB ($85.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB checks.

<font color="blue"> Regardless of this hand, I really don't know how I should play KQs and KQo preflop. Normally I'll fold KQo in EP, limp with 1-2 callers in MP or LP, and raise in MP or LP if first one in. Does this seem reasonable or do I need to modify? </font>

Flop: ($4.50) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, MP2 calls $4, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

<font color="blue"> Top two pair leaves a dangerous flush and straight draw possibility. I pot it (well, slightly under pot) and get one caller. </font>

Turn: ($12.50) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $10.

<font color="blue"> From here on out I don't like my play at all. The call after the minraise I think is the worst thing I could've done. The straight is definitely a possiblity, however the only straight that could get paid off is a gutshot. I think my call was hoping to pair up my K or Q (dumm dumb dumb), but I think the better move is all in or fold. Hard to lay this down against an inside straight draw, so I think the +EV move would be to push. Comments? </font>

River: ($52.50) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets $12</font>, Hero calls $12.

Final Pot: $76.50

<font color="blue"> I check, planning to fold to a huge bet or call a small one. Getting near 5:1 for the final bet, I make the crying call. </font>


Any advice on this hand, or KQ in generall is appreciated. I'll post results later. Thanks.

JrJordan

[JrJordan]

NT

[JrJordan]

Shameless bump, really unsure for this hand. Any help appreciated.

[scooby]

I'm calling down on this hand...Given the lack of preflop raising, I'd say he's got 55, A10, or KJ with about equal chances. So you've got 1/3 chance of winning and are getting 4 to 1 on your money of the turn and 5-1 on the river. I probably wouldn't call a big bet, but I don't think you played it that badly. If the table were so passive that I could see someone limping in with QQ or KK then I'd fold, however. I don't like pushing- I don't think a worse hand would call.

[cornell2005]

oh sorry didnt see this one.

id play it like you did, i dont like the idea of a push on the turn at all. you want a worse hand to have a chance to bluff on the river. id check the river then call in most places

[Richie Rich]

If he beat you with JJ or A10/109, then it's because you didn't bet enough on the flop...

[JrJordan]

What flop bet would you recommend? I didn't give the gutshot odds to draw, and if I pot it at 4.50, a flush draw would call anyway. I think in the long run the pot sized bet will be best. A $6 or $7 bet won't get action from hands who would call the pot sized bet on a draw.


Anyway, the results. Turns out villain has 9h10h for the turned straight. I think regardless of my bet on the flop, he was there to stay with that many outs.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
If he beat you with JJ or A10/109, then it's because you didn't bet enough on the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

you woulda overbet the pot here? technically a10 or 109 didnt have odds to stay with the 4 dollar bet

[Richie Rich]

I would've overbet the pot on the flop (say to 6 or 7) for several reasons:

(1) to protect my two pair against any possible flush/str8 draws. If a 3rd /images/graemlins/heart.gif didn't fall, I would still be weary of an A or 9 falling on 4th or 5th street (rather than a J or 10) since the villain is more likely to be holding J10 than A10/109; &amp;

(2) when someone calls your larger-than-pot bet, you can be pretty sure that they are either on a strong draw or slowplaying a set. I think this is important information to gather when you're playing out-of-position.

The point to my original post was the fact that UNDERbetting the pot on THIS flop was horrible. Essentially you're inviting any flush/straight draws to chase you down -- which you know they will -- for relatively cheap. You HAVE to put more money in the pot when you're a favorite to win...not when you WERE the favorite to win, but now a "not-so-good" card comes along and you feel like you could be behind. I got the feeling that the J on the turn didn't help our hero (after all, why else would he be posting this hand for review). That's why I said if JJ or A10/109 beat you, then it's because you didn't bet enough on the flop...

Our hero was a slight favorite to win this hand on the flop...
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=Qh+5s+Kh&amp;d=&amp;h=Kc+Qc%0D%0ATh+9h

...but a big underdog on the turn
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=Qh+5s+Kh+Jc&amp;d=&amp;h=Kc+Qc%0D%0ATh+9h

I don't think our hero played this hand too poorly. After all, I’m sure he was aware of the possible flush and straight draws. But if he OVERbet the pot on the flop, was called by his opponent, who then raised on the turn when the J/images/graemlins/club.gif fell, then I think our hero could more safely lay down his two pair. I'm not saying it would be easy, but it might have saved him $22...

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
I would've overbet the pot on the flop (say to 6 or 7) for several reasons:

(1) to protect my two pair against any possible flush/str8 draws. If a 3rd /images/graemlins/heart.gif didn't fall, I would still be weary of an A or 9 falling on 4th or 5th street (rather than a J or 10) since the villain is more likely to be holding J10 than A10/109; &amp;

(2) when someone calls your larger-than-pot bet, you can be pretty sure that they are either on a strong draw or slowplaying a set. I think this is important information to gather when you're playing out-of-position.

The point to my original post was the fact that UNDERbetting the pot on THIS flop was horrible. Essentially you're inviting any flush/straight draws to chase you down -- which you know they will -- for relatively cheap. I got the feeling that the J on the turn didn't help our hero (after all, why else would he be posting this hand for review). That's why I said if JJ or A10/109 beat you, then it's because you didn't bet enough on the flop...

Our hero was a slight favorite to win this hand on the flop...
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=Qh+5s+Kh&amp;d=&amp;h=Kc+Qc%0D%0ATh+9h

...but a big underdog on the turn
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=Qh+5s+Kh+Jc&amp;d=&amp;h=Kc+Qc%0D%0ATh+9h

I don't think our hero played this hand too poorly. After all, I’m sure he was aware of the possible flush and straight draws. But if he OVERbet the pot on the flop, was called by his opponent, who then raised on the turn when the J/images/graemlins/club.gif fell, then I think our hero could more safely lay down his two pair. I'm not saying it would be easy, but it might have saved him $22...

[/ QUOTE ]

good point i agree now

[JrJordan]

I still disagree about the flop overbet, especially on the second point you make.

[ QUOTE ]
(1) to protect my two pair against any possible flush/str8 draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

This point does make some good sense. You want to give the flush draw awful odds to call, no doubt about that. As for the insdie straight draw though, a pot sized bet in plenty to keep them from having correct odds to call. You may get the gutshot to call a pot bet, but there's no way even the dumbest PP player will call nearly twice the pot for a gutshot. The pot sized bet barely gives the flush the odds to call. I think the pot sized bet in this case gives the best of both worlds.

[ QUOTE ]
(2) when someone calls your larger-than-pot bet, you can be pretty sure that they are either on a strong draw or slowplaying a set. I think this is important information to gather when you're playing out-of-position.


[/ QUOTE ]

This, in my opinion, is flawed reasoning for the overbet and my bigger disagreement. If you are massively overbetting the pot for this type of information, then you are paying too much. Think about what you would do on the flop if he calls the massive bet, and a rag hits the turn. If he has a flush draw, you're gonna bet him hard again to take away odds. If he has the set, you're gonna check/fold. These two actions are complete opposite of each other, and the call on the flop doesn't tell you which one to do.

This overbet follows the classic "win a small pot or lose a big one" philosophy. You're only going to get called by a made hand like a set. With a pot sized bet, you'll most likely still get a top pair or gutshot to call for the turn. If the scare card comes on the turn (like this case), then you have a tough decision (just as tough as if you overbet the pot in my opinion). At this time though, there's only $4 dollars in the pot. You seem content to net $2 with your top 2 pair by overbetting the flop. Even though I lost this hand, I still believe potting this flop is much more +EV than the overbet.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

What do you do when your raised after overbetting the pot on the flop?

MarkV.

[Richie Rich]

If he raised your overbet on the flop, could you narrow your opponent to a couple of different hands? Would you still put your opponent on a possible flush draw? What kind of information is betting/underbetting the pot on THIS flop, AND being smooth-called by your opponent, going to give you?

[MVicuna]

Hi,

I dont want this to come off confrontational, but I asked first. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

What do you do if you overbet the pot and you get raised? From what I've read I assume you narrow down their hands to sets and flush draws with a str8 draw or the rare other KQ? If you push, all of those hands will call you and you go bust more then you double up. So that can't be right.

This is my problem, You can't fold top 2 everytime you get raised when you over bet the pot because then everytime you overbet the pot you get raised. If you call your never really that far ahead because your overbet says I really love my hand and their raise/call says my hand is even stronger.

When you underbet the pot your disguising your hand strength and the could easily call with a lot weaker hands in hopes of catching something or to catch your bluff. Hands like K[JT] and Q[JT] are very likely in an unraised pot, and they'll very likely fold to an overbet not wanting to risk so much by calling but *might* call an underbet. Which would you rather have calls or folds?

I don't like your line at all because you basicly can't call any more bets when you overbet the pot on a board that isn't all that scarey with a reasonably strong hand. The turn makes the board scarey, but the pot is SO big now can you really comfortably call a pot sized bet or even a raise with 2 pair on the turn?

[Richie Rich]

No confrontation...just an exchange of good ideas. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I would overbet the pot to see if he is on a flush/str8 draw OR has a set. Don't know of too many flush/str8 draws that will raise if you OVERbet the pot, do you? They usually just call. Not saying it's impossible -- especially if we're talking about a loose/maniac player -- but you need to extract some information from your bets if you're playing a vulnerable hand out of position. NOTE: HIS TWO PAIR IS QUITE VULNERABLE ON THIS FLOP. Under/Betting the pot won't give you an additional info.

Think about it...there are A LOT of cards that you wouldn't be all smiles about seeing on the turn/river: any Ace, any 9, J/10 could pose a possible threat, and obviously any heart. Are you suggesting that our hero just bet the pot, bite his lip, and hope that one of these 21 cards don't show up so that his two pair are "probably still" the winning hand?

I BELIEVE (not know) our hero has the best hand on the flop. That's when you want to put more money in, right? If you OVERbet the pot on the flop, I think it becomes easier to lay down two pair if you get min-raised on the turn when one of those semi-scare cards fall. Why? Because you're pretty sure he's not raising you with KJ...

[cornell2005]

for whats its worth, i dont think theres too much difference EV wise between potting it and overbetting it, especially in this instance where the difference is 1 or 2 dollars. But, i disagree with a couple of your assumptions Richy:

your saying (i think) that you get extra information by over betting, because a set player will tend to raise more and a drawer will tend to call or fold. well in my experience i think the second part is obviously true, but i dont think a set player is mroe likely to raise an overbet compared to a pot bet. for example, if it were me, and it was overbet in front of me, i can be more sure hes not potting his flush draw, because ive almost never seen a drawer overbet his draw. thus, if i am holding the set, i just call, since i know i am way ahead here, and he likes his hand. on the other hand, if i see a pot bet in front of me, i know there is a larger chance he is betting his draw, so i will raise more often. so actaully, in this respect you get LESS information when overbetting.

but, i agree with your arguement that overbetting protects your hand even more from the draws out there, and that may be necessary here. as a counter point (just to throw it out there), one could argue you dont need to protect your hand so vigorously taht a pot bet isnt enough since you actually have outs if he makes his draw.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]


(2) when someone calls your larger-than-pot bet, you can be pretty sure that they are either on a strong draw or slowplaying a set. I think this is important information to gather when you're playing out-of-position.

[/ QUOTE ]

why is this important info to have? how would it change your choice of play if you know he is either doing one or the other? these two possibilities take exact opposite strategies. seems that the most important thing is to figure which one of these he has, not whether he has one of the two.

[Richie Rich]

cornell2005- You make a good point about the player (who holds a spiked set) just smooth calling my overbet.

But if a scare card comes on the turn, such as a third heart, then my guess is that the villain won't be as likely to min-raise my bet since he may be a little bit worried about that card as well; if he does raise, then he probably got lucky by catching the flush...but at least you gave him poor odds to chase you.

And if he min-raises me after a brick falls on the turn/river, then I can more "safely" lay down my two pair (assuming I'm not already pot-committed) since I'm confident he isn't betting with a lesser two pair (like KJ).

[Richie Rich]

Since these two possibilities have opposite strategies (you're absolutely right), it becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT to extract this information and try and guesstimate which hand your opponent has early on.

Seeing the possibilities on the board, I think most players with a spiked set (in this case, it would only be 5s) would raise your $6 or $7 bet into a $5 pot when you consider all of the flush &amp; straight possibilities.

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]

But if a scare card comes on the turn, such as a third heart, then my guess is that the villain won't be as likely to min-raise my bet since he may be a little bit worried about that card as well;

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is where we disagree. like i said before, i think the overbet screams that you arnt on a flush draw yourself. so, if a flush comes, a smart player can raise you with any 2 cards and should make you fold. thats a horrible situation to be in. are you thinking that by overbetting the flop you are making it more likely in his eyes that you are on a draw? the way i see it, overbetting broadcasts that you arnt on a draw, so no matter what his hand, he should be able to steal if a flush drops.

[Richie Rich]

You make a good point...but remember that a set beats two pair. So if he scares you out when a third heart falls, I'd tell him "thanks".

[cornell2005]

[ QUOTE ]
You make a good point...but remember that a set beats two pair. So if he scares you out when a third heart falls, I'd tell him "thanks".

[/ QUOTE ]

he could be in this hand with many other hands than a flush draw and a set. he could use the info you give him with top pair, lower 2 pair, anything and play his cards plus the draw. obviously if he had the trips he wouldnt try to "bluff" you off your hand here, yea?

[MVicuna]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you suggesting that our hero just bet the pot, bite his lip, and hope that one of these 21 cards don't show up so that his two pair are "probably still" the winning hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Thats what I'm saying. /images/graemlins/smile.gif If you underbet and scare card hits and a solid player raises you on the turn fold, if the LAG/Bluffer does you call. Its not that simple, but really you want action with top 2 pair because you have redraws even if they hit their draws or have bottom set and you get paid off big if you hit so try and keep the pot small till you know exactly where you stand. Make a big pot to early and you get into marginal situations where you wont feel comfortable calling raises because you'll be pot commited or not getting good implied odds to hit your redraw.

But I like small pots because I try to apply 2 rules to poker. Be the one sucking out and fill up on the river. You need small pots for this, so you can keep your implied odds.

Anyways, I think I assume anytime I get called past the flop, someone is drawing to something or trapping me. Rarely will you find people calling to just try and steal the hand from you at these levels. They will be playing fit or fold poker.

if not, pretty quickly you will find out who these people are, because thye'll be 'winning' to many pots or one of the calling stations will accidently snap off their bluff.

MarkV.