PDA

View Full Version : So how would you play this?


LA_Price
06-01-2004, 01:10 PM
Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

MP1 ($94.30)
MP2 ($44)
MP3 ($162.80)
CO ($184.30)
Hero ($90)
SB ($219.45)
BB ($713.87)
UTG ($77.40)
UTG+1 ($143.70)

BB in this hand is somewhat tight meaning he doesn't play absolute junk. He also raises pf with his big hands like AA, KK, QQ, JJ but I'm not sure about reraising standards.

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $7, BB calls $6, UTG calls $6, CO calls $6.

Flop: ($40) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
SB checks, BB bets $25, Hero.....

I'd like to hear suggestions on what everyone would do here. I considered moving in but I thought that if he was betting tptk or a lower over pair I was way ahead here and since there were no real draws except 89 I didn't think I necessarily had to raise so I called hoping to gain more information on the turn.

Turn: ($90) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
BB bets $60, Hero....

All suggestions appreciated on both flop and turn.

cornell2005
06-01-2004, 06:19 PM
id push because if you call and then even think about calling when an ace turned you shoulda just pushed to begin with.

this type of hand was brought up in another hand too, and imive been thinking about it some. i dont get why betting by the BB here would ever be the right play for him, except maybe for a risky bluff. he would have to know you had the smarts to fold to his respresented set, and that you trusted him.

anyways, im not sure what the bet by him means. not sure if it means hes bad and he thinks that betting out his set or whatever is the most profitable play, or that hes a bad player and thinks this is a good place to steal.

Utah
06-01-2004, 06:57 PM
You fold. Here is the math. He only has one of 5 possible hands: 22, 77, 10,10 J,J or Q,Q. Assuming you push or fold. I think calling is bad here, but also the math is too complex for me to figure out right now LOL. Also, I am ignoring suckouts here and assuming no other players in the pot.

Lets say he is of average tightness and he has a 20% of each of the 5 hands. Lets say if you push he has a 1/3 chance of calling you with JJ or QQ.

With JJ or QQ you win 83 (x40%) This number can only be higher if he is likely to fold 2,2 or 7,7 to the preflop raise
with the other 3 hands you lose 82 (x60%)
EV = -16

Lets say he is kinda tight and would only make the bet with JJ or QQ with a 20% probability combined. Also, being tight he is not likely to call your allin reraise with JJ and QQ

JJ or QQ: you win $65 (x20%)
other 3: you lose $-82 (x80%)
net EV = -$52

Lets say he is really tight and he will only make that bet with JJ or QQ with a 10% combined probablity.

With JJ or QQ you win $65 (x10%)
With other three you lose $83 (x90%)
Net EV = -$67

I cant construct a scenario where you are EV positive. And if he is tight you are really EV negative.