AKs in the pot of the night - very long

The following is a 2-5 Hold’em hand I played at the Hyatt Casino in Blackhawk last Friday.


The table had recently been 6-handed (due to people taking dinner breaks), so my table image was likely loose aggressive due to my short-handed isolation plays. Two people return from dinner and a maniac plays over another absent player to make it a full 10-handed table. The maniac was three seats to my right. He raised 90% of the hands before the flop and raised 75% of the time that he could after the flop. The table had initially tightened up due to the raises, but by the time this hand occurred, several people were on tilt after seeing strange holdings take down large pots.


On the hand in question, a player who had initially tightened up (and who is now loudly muttering about the maniac) opens for a raise to $7, UTG. Call. Fold. Maniac re-raises to $12. Call. Call. I look down and see AcKc. I decide that I can’t be sure that anyone has AA or KK, so I make it $17. More callers. UTG rolls his eyes and makes it $22. Maniac caps at $27. We have 8-way action to the flop for 5 raises. I don’t think my raise made any difference, but we might have stopped at $12 if I just smooth-call. Anyone not raise here? No mucking, right?


Flop: Qh10h8c. I have a gut-shot (3 outs to the nuts) and a backdoor flush draw. UTG raises, maniac re-raises. At this point I think it will be somewhere between 6-10 red chips to get to the river. It could be as many as 12 more bets. The final pot will be in the neighborhood of $400-$500. I believe this due to experience in these kinds of tilted games. Assuming that this round will go to a cap no matter what you do, do you call, raise, or fold?


I called 6 bets on the installment plan on the flop with no one folding. I lose count of the pot size as it goes north of 80 bets. Turn card is the beautiful 7c. Can you say outs? UTG reluctantly bets out and the maniac gleefully raises. At this point I guess that UTG is not re-raising and I can see the river for a relatively cheap $10. Does anyone raise for value here?


To recap the turn: 7c – Qh10h8c


I smooth-call $10 and we have 6 to the river. I’ll save the suspense… The river brings the 9s. UTG checks, manic bets, new bettor to my right raises. I muck.


Hands: UTG had QQ for flopped top set. Maniac had KhQd for top pair and some non-nut draws. New bettor JcJd shows winning straight and drags a $400+ pot.


I think that this is a fairly typical hand in a game that has gone loose aggressive with multiple players on tilt. I missed the pot of the night, but I cashed out more than four racks ahead. Would anyone have played this hand differently at any point?


Thanks,


Doug

u play fine

My default play is to fold AKs when it's 3 bets to me. However, given your opponents, I would 4-bet in this spot.


From the flop on, there is nothing you can do but hope to hit your draw. The massive size of the pre-flop pot would make folding incorrect on the flop even if you knew it was going to get jammed up the way it did.

You sensed players to be on tilt, so calling AKs is a good play. A raise wouldn't of done anything significantly as far as image is concerned. Sure it would of built the pot up, but that's it.


Seeing the flop and knowing 8 players have seen it, I would be inclined to fold here. You have a backdoor flush draw, but you are also up against hearts. It takes 3 bets to stay in this hand and you have a gutshot to b-way and a backdoor flush draw. I would call here without a raise in front of you...fold when it's 3-betted to you.


Bill

I probably would have raised the turn. I think its unlikely that the raise will make anyone drop out of a $400 dollar pot, and you're probably better off raising it even if you lose one player; it's likely to be capped 5 or 6 ways. Other than that, I have to think I'd have played it the same way.

Folding pre-flop is out of the question. Raising DOES make a difference in that it gives away the nature of your hand, but in these games I guess that doesn't hurt all that much.


On the flop; assuming it'll be capped all the way: your backdoor draw is worth about 1 out giving you a total of 5 outs or you are about an 8-1 dog to make a straight or flush, and you are getting about 15:1 to draw now. Even counting the chances someone has a set and redraws you, that's plenty to draw.


On the turn you have 10 outs to the stone nuts or about 3.5:1 against, so if you expect 4 opponents to call all bets you make money by capping it. That DOES take into account the likely set but doesn't take into account the chance someone else has AK and you tie some of your outs. The problem with capping it is you may lose someone, and calculating the EV of say 2 bets for 5 opponents or 4 bets for 4 is a little tedius. So cap it if you won't lose anybody.


Hard to believe UTG didn't cap it on the turn with the 2nd nuts against the maniac and the field. He's making money even if someone DOES have a straight.


- Louie

Thanks Louie and everyone else. I appreciate the analysis.


At the time, I thought I had about effective 5 outs on the flop. I knew that at least the flop was going to be capped when I called the first two cold. As I reached for the two red chips, I knew that by calling I was committed to another $30-$50 to see the river. I just wondered if anyone could see a fold here. After the turn card, I loved my situation. However, I wondered if the possibility of AhKh in someone else's hand didn't turn a raise for value into just a call. I was pretty sure that a raise from me would lead to a cap where a call might keep the round cheap. I bet the next ten times that this happens, it is about 50-50 on the cap.


I’d bet UTG with top set wasn’t thinking about raising for value on the turn. He was just thinking that his set had been cracked by yet another screwball straight.


I have been thinking a lot about these sorts of hands in wild games. Oddly enough, AA is a worse hand than AKs in this specific hand. I play in these sorts of games a fair amount, and I wonder about conventional wisdom about hand ranking. If AA misses, you have almost no draw. A lot of value from your hands in these games comes from big draws. OTOH, if you get sucked in with AK, you can pay a lot of money in close situations. After all, I called 6 bets on the flop with a 5-outer. While I still think it was positive EV, it certainly wasn’t a no-brainer.


All in all, I find these sorts of games quite profitable. I prefer to be able to isolate the maniac. However, getting the table on tilt is a good second best. If nothing else, they can stay on tilt for hours after the maniac busts out. I am still thinking about hands like this one. I lost $80 here, and I may have been correct to do so. If the hand had been slightly different and pushed the decision closer to folding, making the right decision is a big deal. A few decisions like this in a relatively small limit game seem like they would have a big effect in your bottom line. After all, you see smaller pots than this in a lot of 15-30 games.


Thanks again,


Doug