Bad day, am I playing bad or running bad?

[Pitcher]

Hi All,

I played 46 tourneys yesterday. 44 were $200, 2 were $100. I lost $2678.00 for the day. Major ouch. I know a big part of this is running bad, but I wanted to see how this bad streak compares to others in terms of luck. There were a number of "bad beats" in this streak, but that is not really what the post is about. It is to determine how effective I was playing during that time. I took a look at all the "significant" hands during this time. My criteria was either winning or losing 500 plus chips. I excluded a few hands where the blinds were over 500. In that situation I arbitrarily included 2 hands as significant because over 3000 chips changed hands. At any rate, this is what I found out.

I identified 75 "significant" hands.

I lost 49 of 75
Of the ones I lost, I had the better starting cards 35 times. I have not identified how much better. I did use twodimes to determine whom was ahead if there was any doubt and I checked 4 3 ways to make sure.
I won 26. Of the starting hands I won, I was ahead 18 times pre-flop.

So, of 49 hands that I lost, I was ahead pre-flop 35 times or 71%.
When I won, I was ahead 18 of 26 or 69.2% of the time.
In total, I was ahead pre-flop 70.6% of the time and won 34.6% of the hands.

Obviously, there were many hands that were close and several where I was either down to it in terms of blinds, and forced to go all in, or I called/bet without much edge. Some were pretty clearly just bad luck. I lost KK vs AQ twice when straights rivered. Think about that...On one I flopped trips, on the other I rivered them....

I have a number of questions. How effective was my play during this time? (clearly the result wasn't too good, but was that just bad luck?) Should I chalk it up to bad luck and move on or further examine every hand (how many coinflips were involved that could have been avoided, for example). How would you analyze your play in general during such a streak? Are there any tools available to help with this? Finally, would you change your play during a streak like this (tighten up, loosen up etc.) Thanks in advance for any help.

Pitcher

[Lori]

Unfortunately a -13 entry streak is not very large even at the easier limits.

I am aware it must feel this way , but the reason we need a 20-25 entry roll, even at games around the 50 ROI mark is because of the horrid flucs. that can occur.

If you are a regular winner in those games, don't panic until you hit -25 entries.

Changing your play won't make things better, but maybe drop one limit if your confidence is a little shaken, just until it returns.

Lori

[Profit]

one thing that i've adjusted to is even if i think i have the slight edge in a hand, i will lay it down early in a SNG and wait for a better situation later.

I've played about 150 SNG's this past week, one thing i've learned is that i dont think anything can surprise me anymore.

[codewarrior]

Step away from the keyboard. Seriously - take a break. Or play one at a time. I went through a streak worse than that last month, and have had a banner month this month. All it took was a couple days off. You may not think you're thinking about your results, but you are. JMHO.

Steve

[Lori]

Step away from the keyboard. Seriously - take a break. Or play one at a time. I went through a streak worse than that last month, and have had a banner month this month. All it took was a couple days off. You may not think you're thinking about your results, but you are. JMHO

Agree with the above.

Nothing wrong with playing 150 in a week, but burnout can manifest itself in your results for many different reasons.

Often I've had dramatic changes in results even though I thought I was playing fine, just from a 24 hour rest.

Two days is even better.

Lori

[Pitcher]

Hi Profit,

You are right about laying down early. Fortunately, I am doing that. Almost all of these results are around the bubble or even in the money. A couple occurred "early", but they happened in rock gardens where 9 players were still left and the blinds were at 100/200. Anyway, I think I am pressing a bit about the results. Perhaps a day or two off would help, like Codewarrior suggested. BTW Profit, I also play fairly tight when considering calling all ins and that has also helped. Thanks for the suggestion.

Pitcher

[Rubicon]

I think I know how you feel.

I recently stepped up to Partys $30+3
In my first 24 tournaments I got 1st: 4 times, 2nd: 3 times and 3rd: 8 times. Thus placing 62.5% of the times. Well I knew that I was running exceptionally good, and that this isn't a large sample. But then during tournament 25-40 I placed outside the money everyone of them, included are five 4th places. 16 times in a row, after an initial 62.5 percentage! What can you do? I was badly beaten time after time after time, I was raising preflop with QQ.. flop comes rags, I go all in and gets called by a flopped rag two pair!? I didn't know if I should cry or laugh. Well I still havn't dared playing in the 30's after a two weeks absence.. but soon I will try again, to see if it will be 17+ losses in a row.

I guess the losses affected my play somehow but I don't think it affected me too much, I really did suffer from a lot of bad beats. Well, these things just happens I guess..

[Pitcher]

Hi Lori,

I think that is part of my issue. I have some belief that I am playing fine, but I am not entirely sure. I am looking at all the hands (can't help myself) and I believe I showed poor judgement on 6-7 of these hands....which seems like a bit. I am going to take your advice about taking time off.

BTW, I am not considering changing levels and my month overall has been ok. That said, one of the reasons I started playing Sit N Go's was to reduce the variance. I don't like these kinds of days even though I have had them before (but at lower levels). It is something I am still adjusting to.

I still would love to see some thoughts about whether or not this is really "bad luck" or part of some normal variance (which I suspect).

Pitcher

[C M Burns]

Sice you played 46 in a day i can only assume u must play at least 3 at a time. I find it hard to follow and read players at more than 2 tables max, but if it works for u fine. But if you are really questioning your play i sugest just playing one for a while and really evaluating your play, this can be tough to do with divided attention. I know this may be tough since when i am down i am always in a hurry to "catch up" so i want to play even more, but i think fighting this and slowing down a bit will help your sanity.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Of the ones I lost, I had the better starting cards 35 times. I have not identified how much better. I did use twodimes to determine whom was ahead if there was any doubt and I checked 4 3 ways to make sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The relative strength of the hands preflop is a reasonable indicator of your net skill only when the bulk of the chips go in preflop. You can use twodimes to determine your winning chances on the flop and turn, and that is probably more relevant.

You need to consider not just which hand was the favorite, but by how much. If you play 55 vs. KQ 5 times and 55 vs. JJ once, you lose.

Unfortunately, you are skipping the hands that were laid down. Your methodology undervalues suited connectors. Any ace is a favorite preflop, but the suited connector will get away easily on most flops. You will rarely see one shown down unless it hits.

[Lori]

Two replies in one here:

Pitcher: I suspect it is a little of both, the start of a bad run tends to be varience and then a little bad play creeps in.
One day off will increase both belief and enthusiasm.

CMB:
I have a problem playing more than two unless I play at UB with the mini view.
You might encounter a problem at UB playing more than two as I suspect not that many higher games are running there at the same time, but the mini-view feature really makes it easier to follow the action on multiple tables.

Lori

[Toro]

Running bad for 46 tourneys in one day is pretty incredible. There is no way you should be playing that much when you're running bad.

What I do is extreme, but 2 sng's in a row with horrendous beats and I'm done for the day.