What's the move?

[Gomez22]

Paradise SNG - Level 2 Blinds 10/20

I'm CO-1 with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif and T975

UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, folded to me, I raise to T120, folded to UTG, who calls, UTG+1 calls.

FLOP(T390): 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG checks, UTG+1 pushes..... your move...

PS - I should mention that this table has more fish than the Florida aquarium.....

[Joboo]

I'm new here, so you can take my advice with a grain of salt. That said, I don't think that risking your whole stack to find out this fool has K 10 or K 6 or even 10 6 this early in the tourney is a good move.

[Pitcher]

Hi Gomez,

Looks like an "autopush" on your part. I would call nearly everytime. I know there are lots of fish, but you made a sizable bet pre-flop. I believe most players are going to call with something better than K10. So, possible hands that you dominate include AK, KQ, KJ....his most likely holdings. Of course, you never know (he could have called with 10's, 6's or K's, but probably would have re-raised with that) but that is a risk I would take everytime unless I had some other type of read (like there is no way this player would push without 2 pair or trips). Further, many players would slow play or small bet trips, so I believe that is unlikely. One further possibility is a 4 flush. If your opponent has a 4 flush you are a 2:1 favorite unless it includes a pair (10 in this case), so you have the best of that situation as well.
Based on your post though, I suspect this player had some awful hand like K6 or 10-6....

Pitcher

[TylerD]

OK I'll ask, how much does the UTG+1 have?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

They just love flush draws at this level. That being said, you're pretty much dead even against Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, an 11-9 favorite over A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif, a 7-3 dog to KT, and way behind TT, KK, and 66. You're better than a 2-1 favotite over most other flush and straight draws. Would he push in with QQ or JJ? Sounds like you're a bit less than a 3-2 favorite over the range of hands he's pushing with *if* you believe he's fishy enough to make this move with any draw and any pair TT and higher.

Tough call. I'd have to go by the seat of my pants.

[SoloAJ]

I think I have to call here. It is a tough decision but you don't want to just lay this down every time some fish pushes in on you. He could EASILY have JT or KQ or something. You could be beat but I think I'd have to close my eyes and call this one. The flush draw actualy is what I would consider most likely....But you can't typically lay this down if for no other reason than the 'early round' fish will push very weak hands in this spot.

[adanthar]

The last time I had a hand like this, I raised to 4xBB midway through a multitable (about an hour and change in) and got two callers. The flop came J, rag, rag, the BB went all in and was called by the other guy. After thinking about it, I called and wound up against J6s and JTo, respectively.

The only thing I'd change is for the T not to hit on the turn /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Gomez22]

He's got me covered by about T150, so it's do or die for me....

I don't think I'd ask if he didn't have me covered, but I missed putting it in there.... sorry.

[TylerD]

I think you have to call, he'll most likely have top pair with a reasonable kicker, I'm guessing he doesn't this time because you posted it, but I'd probably call every time here.

[Gomez22]

SOrta like an episode of WPT, right? You see them both all-in PF, and know that the short-stack is ahead, but you look at the clock and see that it's 10:56 PM EST.... you KNOW that big stack out-draws him here! I mean, c'mon... they have to have time for the Anheiser(sp?) World Skunk.... ummm... I mean World Select toast, right?

[Gomez22]

Well, sure enough, UTG+1 shows Kc 6c, turns a 6 to fill up, and I'm out in 10th place... the only satisfaction I got from this was making a big note on him about being a Fishy Flush Monger....

'Mez

[cartoonsoldier]

It sucks that he had 2 pair, but the play you did was good, but you got unlucky which sucks.

happens a lot on Party /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[C M Burns]

given that this could go either way as far as are u ahead or not, one way to look at this would be to compare your ev, if you fold vs call and win.
if you fold you have about 800 chips (i'm assuming 10k chips on table) so based on luck (to compare) you have an 8% chance to win, i'm not quite sure how to estimate the chance of a place, but i think it is a little less than X 3 (does anyone know the best way to estimate?) so say 22%.

Now lets say your call on average has a 50% ev. half the time you are out, and half you have about 2200. perhaps about a 60% chance to place when still in so .6 x .5 =.3.

So if you think on average you are likley to win and least 50% of the time it apears a call is correct.

I'm to sure how acurate my numbers are, i've been working on ways of anylising situations like this. and you would also want to take into account how the table plays, if they are maniacs maybe u can do better from folding and waiting for a biger edge.

[Gomez22]

One thing that I desperately NEED to work on is NOT losing the tourney early on... funny thing is, I know this, but in situations similar to this, I always find my finger clicking on all-in or call, when a better move may be to fold, even though there WILL be instances where I know I will fold the best hand.

I keep trying to instill in myself that survival is key in the early stages of any tournament, whether it be a SNG or a MTT, but I honestly find that I play my best poker in 2 situations...

1. Short stacked(especially on bubble) - I push every edge I may have as far as possible in these situations.

2. Chip leader - I always sit back and let a few of the shorties battle it out and only enter pots from the blinds, or with premium hands. If I feel that I have an edge, I'll try and take it, but most of the time, I'll stay out og harms way if I build a big stack early.

In this case, and others to come, I need to put a post-it note on my computer that say something like: "Patience!!".. or "Count to 10!!", so that I may evaluate a situation thoroughly before making a semi-rash to rash call.

More discipline is needed, I think.

'Mez

[Profit]

patience is key. I've just started hitting these SNG hard core (as far as quantity not level). I can't believe how many foolish mistakes i see, ie 2nd chip guy going all in vs chip leaders raise and busting when other players were way behind in chips. People do this all the time.

I think playing as the short stack in 4 way action obviously isn't ideal, but often times the easiest.

[Lori]

maybe u can do better from folding and waiting for a biger edge.


A note on tight decisions in general.

CMB: For you, (No offence to 'mez, but he's new to the format and different rules apply - like gaining experience and so on) if you are not sure you should take the gamble on level 1 decisions, because not only do you have EV to worry about but hourly rate.

For a 'normal' winning player, a tight decision this early should also factor in likely hourly rates and in the money percentages.

For Gomez, or any other newbie, a tight decision tends to be a different spot to that of CMB as his tight decisions are probably less clear to him than yours are, if you are 50-50 to double through and you are a losing or level player, then it is probably a call.
If you are a small winner then you should probably fold and wait for a better shot.

For the record I believe that the AA is a call here for almost all players, the winners should consider hourly rates and the losers should take the gamble.
I think the slight edge involved is enough to make the call.

Lori

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
CMB: For you, (No offence to 'mez, but he's new to the format and different rules apply - like gaining experience and so on) if you are not sure you should take the gamble on level 1 decisions, because not only do you have EV to worry about but hourly rate.


[/ QUOTE ]

Lori, could you please clarify this passage a little? if you mean that $/h is not necessarily a function of ROI (I'm using "function" in a very simplistic way), I can see how marginal +EV decisions in EARLY levels are good moves, as you can immidiately enter a new game if you bust, without spending too much time on the previous game. If you mean that a 'normal' winning player should make tighter decisions in early levels, I cannot see how does it contribute to increasing your $/h, but only to increasing ROI (assuming there is a new game coming right up).

Or is it all about ITM? Are we simply talking about variance here?