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View Full Version : Extreme longshot odds


LADoogie
05-30-2004, 05:14 AM
Anyone entertained by calculating odds? Calculate this one and make me feel better. The following just happened to me on PokerStars:

What are the odds that in two consecutive holdem hands:
1) I get AA AND
2) I see the flop with one opponent who has two non-paired undercards AND
3) I lose both times!

Josh W
06-02-2004, 03:47 AM
the probability of this happening is exactly unity.

The probability of this happening on the next two hands is noticeably less.

Josh

wacki
06-03-2004, 03:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
the probability of this happening is exactly unity.

The probability of this happening on the next two hands is noticeably less.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree

AA vs KQo is 86.18 favorite preflop

Ac Ad vs KQ hearts suited is still 82% fav

both times nonpaired undercards are a big loser preflop

If neither hit on the flop AA is about a 94.1% leader