Semi-bluffing my AA [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

ddubois

05-29-2004, 08:31 AM

Frustrating. I figured I was behind a set, but I had 11 outs and 3 (minus Kc) more on the turn. I had to play it this way? Check thru the river though, huh?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO (poster) caps, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (18.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players) 
UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, UTG+2 3-bets, MP2 folds, Hero caps, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players) 
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

River: (15.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB
Main Pot: 17.75 BB, between Hero and UTG+2. > Pot won by UTG+2 (17.75 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG+2 shows Jd Js (three of a kind, jacks).
Hero shows Ah Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 17.75 BB.

Trix

05-29-2004, 08:38 AM

I either call the flop 3bet, so I can get a raise in if I improve or cap and take the free card on the turn.

twolf

05-29-2004, 09:03 AM

Call the flop 3-bet and fold the turn unimproved I think it's obvious he has AsKs /images/graemlins/crazy.gif therefore you have virtually no chance to win this pot on a sumo-bluff.

Play more drawing hands fold marginal hands such as aces and kings.

MCS

05-29-2004, 09:05 AM

Gotta love the preflop cap by your opponent.

I wouldn't have capped the flop, as I wouldn't have thought I was the favorite to win the hand, and I don't think your opponent is going anywhere.

Remember that for a semibluff to be useful, there has to be a nontrivial chance you can win the pot right there. If your opponent isn't folding, then that part of the semibluff has no value.

Whether you can VALUE bet is a different story. I would be hesitant to cap the flop with only one pair. Of course, you may win if the board pairs (if he has QJ), you'll probably win if a fourth club hits, and you'll probably win if a third ace hits. Hmmm. So you may well be best after all.

Same logic applies to the turn.

I might bet the river if for some reason I thought the other guy was really tricky and might just be betting a club draw with KcTd or something and then lay it down if he missed. But then, would he have capped preflop? And wouldn't he still call the river since now he has top pair?

I dunno. Just seems like you overvalued the hand a little bit postflop. I would have checked the river for sure.

chesspain

05-29-2004, 09:12 AM

Remember, this opponent raised from EP preflop, called the cap, and then capped the flop even with the three clubs on board. The only logical hands he could have that lose to you with which he will call the river are AQ and AK (with the K of clubs). However, if he has QQ,JJ,KK,KQ then you lose. I guess the question is whether your opponent would play any or all of these four better hands this weakly on the turn or river, either because he is afraid of the flush or because he might be encouraging you to bluff at him when he isn't sure where he stands?

It's obvious that he will not be folding a better hand on the river, although on the other hand I believe that the chances of your facing a checkraise are pretty remote. Although my coffee hasn't kicked in yet, I believe there are more ways for him to have QQ/JJ/KQ/KK than there are for him to have AQ/AK[w/K clubs]). Furthermore, given that your flop cap could have slowed down his own possible flopped set if he believes that you have the AK flush or KK {w/a club}, I would just check behind on the river.