Coldcalling with Axs (or pocket pairs)

Suppose you are on the button in a game that's loose passive. There are a few callers (say 3) then a late position player raises. You do not expect that anyone will limp-reraise. Is it correct to cold-call in this position?


At this very instant, you are getting 6.5:2 or 3.25:1 on the call, but you can expect that at least the limpers will call the raise, giving you something much more like 5:1 (depending on how the blinds play). Since the odds of flopping the nut flush draw are about 7.5:1, you only need to make up 2-3 BB after the flop, and with 4-6 opponents and a large pot, this does not seem very difficult to do (large pot = others chasing their hands as well).


Unless there is significant action, you will be getting odds to draw on both the flop and the turn, so if you flop the flush draw, you're committed to the river. What worries me is whether or not completing the flush only 1/3 of the time is enough to warrant the initial investment.


I don't like the option of folding because I think you are refusing what looks to me like a favorable proposition, and I don't like raising because you're just making your implied odds worse. You're already in good position relative to the raiser, so I don't see what else you can possibly gain by firing away preflop.


If you don't like this example because of drawing after the flop, what about a pocket pair searching for a set? The preflop odds are about the same.


I know that some people here have very strong feelings against cold-calling, and while I see that in many cases it's a problem, I don't understand *never* cold-calling. It seems that by never cold-calling you are turning down some profitable opportunities.


Thanks for any feedback I get.


Aaron

First of all, while I cannot prove it I'm pretty sure your hand does better getting 3.25:1 heads up then it does getting 5:1 against 4 players; and if so you WANT every who has invested one bet to fold for one more.


Second of all, whether or not you have the "odds" to call after the flop to chase your flush draw (and you almost always do) is less important; more important here is whether or not you will MAKE money with your draw: if you are heads-up then you are losing money for those bets even if the pot is big enough to draw. Thus, your implied odds are negative (you do better if you were all-in). If you expect 4 way action then you are making money and your implied odds are good (you are glad nobody is all-in). This expected good/bad implied odds affects your pre-flop decision quite a bit.


5 easy-to-beat opponents in last position looks marginally profitable for A6s even against a raise, since you don't expect surprises after the flop. Against real opponents where you are almost certainly up against a big ace and pair bigger than your kicker AND won't get much action after the flop, you are in some serious trouble.


- Louie

I would fold Axs to a raise. The raise has killed your implied odds and made it more likely that hitting your A is no good. As I have said several times in the past, getting correct pot odds to flop a flush draw does not a profitable call make (and you don't even have that here). If x gets sufficiently high, however, I think a call becomes more reasonable (maybe 9 or so).


Pocket pairs are a different ball of wax. I would probably cold-call with pretty much any pocket pair on the button in this situation.

I'd rather work with pocket pairs. It's easier to calculate because you are flopping a made hand.


You will flop a set or better 11.75% of the time.


Play the hand 1,000 times.


You will not flop at least a set 882.5 (88.25%) times. In these situations, you will very likely fold to a flop bet. In these hands, you will lose 882.5 big bets.


You will flop a set or better 117.5 times (11.75%). But, how often will you flop a set and win the pot? Let's say it's 80% of those 117.5 hands.


So, you will flop a set or better and lose about 23.5 times. How much will this cost you? It will cost you 1 big bet pre-flop for certain and probably at least 3 big bets post flop for a total of 4 big bets per hand. That's a total of 94 big bets lost in the 23.5 hands. I think this estimate is very conservative.


You will flop a set and win 94 times. In order to break-even, the average pot you win must be 10.39 big bets ((882.5+94)/94).


These calculations are certainly not precise. I already mentioned that I thought losing only 3 big bets post-flop when you flop a set and lose is very conservative. This should be compensated for, in part, by the fact that you will occassionally not flop a set with a hand like 66 but will flop an open-ended straight draw, make your hand, and win the pot.


The point of my post was to respond to Aaron's comment "you only need to make up 2-3 BB after the flop, and with 4-6 opponents and a large pot, this does not seem very difficult to do". You have to make up much more than 2-3 big bets. My calculations showed you need to make up 5 big bets post flop just to break-even. That's a lot to make up without showing a profit.

It should surprise no one that I agree with Louie. You play against fish, dump at a tougher table.


Louie is still the best poster in this forum.

Thank you Clarkmeister and Louie for pointing out the error in my logic. It's all much clearer now and the lesson has been learned.