AA vs AX odds....

[masland]

At lower limit tables (1/2 2/4), I play A9s because most people will play Ax & Axs so I out kick most if an A hits the board....

However, I was wondering today....

If I hold A9... and the flop shows A, Blank, Blank....

What is the probability that my opponent has AA?

I was playing heads up after the flop against a tight/aggresive player that raised pre-flop in the blinds...so I put him on AA or KK. When the A hit the board, he bet, I re-raised, he called (no AA for him!). 4th street brought a blank, he checked, I bet, he folded...I'm guessing he has KK. Made me wonder what the odds are of all 4 aces being out if u hold one, the board holds one, and there is one opponent...

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
If I hold A9... and the flop shows A, Blank, Blank....

What is the probability that my opponent has AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he can hold anything on the flop, 1 / C(47,2) = 1/1081 = 1080-to-1.


[ QUOTE ]
I was playing heads up after the flop against a tight/aggresive player that raised pre-flop in the blinds...so I put him on AA or KK. When the A hit the board, he bet, I re-raised, he called (no AA for him!). 4th street brought a blank, he checked, I bet, he folded...I'm guessing he has KK. Made me wonder what the odds are of all 4 aces being out if u hold one, the board holds one, and there is one opponent...

[/ QUOTE ]

If he can hold any hand on the river, then the odds are 1 / C(45,2) = 1/990 = 989-to-1. If the only possibilities are KK and AA, and there is no K out, then the odds are 6-to-1 against him holding aces, since there are 6 ways he can hold KK, and only 1 way he can hold AA.

[masland]

THANK YOU!!

[PITTM]

i had ak, hit the ak2 flop and pushed the other day, and the other guy had aa, i was shocked. he showed no signs of aa until then. i actually hit the k on the river giving me the kings over aces but he still had aces over kings. boy was i stuck there.

rj