AJ - Turn Action Help

[Sarge85]

Opponent hasn't been at the table all that long.
Same table as other hand.

I still "feel" like people are "making" moves on me....


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero????

Raise/Fold/Call?

Sarge /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Alobar]

why do you think people are making moves on you? Are you folding alot when they do? If so, then this is one of the times you might just call down even tho you fear being beat. Just to show that you will do it.

I think I raise here and take the free showdown, prolly fold to a 3 bet as I dont think a normal player 3 bets here without the str8 against a PFR, and you still wouldnt have the odds to call and hit the gutshot

[Joe826]

Why not just call the turn and call a river bet for the same price? The showdown is guarenteed..

Anyways, I think I just call down from here since you don't have a good read. What makes you think the player is already taking shots at you when they just joined the table? Maybe you have a funny name..

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I raise here and take the free showdown, prolly fold to a 3bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line.

[Alobar]

because more than likely a 2 bet here gives you the free showdown, and if you do hit youre str8 or A on the river you can bet again. So you get more money when you win, and lose the same amount when you lose.

[Joe826]

Yeah but if you do get 3-bet you're screwed. There's a slight possibility that you're still ahead and you can improve on the river. If you raise and he 3-bets, you don't have a chance to catch any of your outs.

If you just call it's likely that your opponent will bet into you on the river if you do improve and you can put in a raise. If you raise the turn then he's more likely to check and call, so you lose a bet if you do improve by raising the turn. I don't see how raising the turn does anything beneficial..

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]

because more than likely a 2 bet here gives you the free showdown, and if you do hit youre str8 or A on the river you can bet again. So you get more money when you win, and lose the same amount when you lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and with a raise there is also the slight chance that you will fold a better hand.

One more reason to raise: he could very well be semi bluffing a gutshot or a 4 flush here.

[Alobar]

ack, well first off I'm blind. You don't have a gut shot on the turn. Actually thats all the more reason to raise. Like I said I really don't fear a 3 bet unless he has the str8, if he has the str8 you're dead anyway. You raised PF so hes gunna be scared you've got a set of jakcs or kings, so unless hes over aggro (in which case I Would change my line to the call down) he isnt going to 3 bet his 2 pair. Also, say he's holding KJ and the ace falls on the river, lots of times he'll check because thats a very scary card so you dont get the chance to raise. Also a raise here on the turn might fold out a hand like a pair+gutshot

[Joe826]

Woops, I thought there was a gutshot too heh. If you had a good read on the opponent then your line might be ok, but given his newness to the table I think I like mine (so there) considering what alot of players are capable of and because I would hate myself if I got 3-bet and had the better hand or could have improved and won on the river.

The possibility of folding out a better hand or squeezing another bet out of a pure drawing hand are advantages of a turn raise, but the former is highly unlikely (as well as pair + gutshot) and I think I'll take my chances with the drawing hands. Who knows, maybe he'll bluff on the river with a busted draw /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise and he 3-bets, you don't have a chance to catch any of your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's a king the BB is betting, you don't have odds to see the river to try to make 2 pair or trips (you are an 8:1 shot and the pot is offering you 5.25:1 on your call). If it's a straight, you are drawing dead. If it's a semi bluff you're still ahead. This is why calling is much worse than raising.

[Joe826]

That's cool, if I was confident my opponent would only 3-bet with a hand much better than mine then I would take this line also. I'm just naturally skeptical when it comes to unknown.

[joker122]

Good point. I just realized that my whole argument assumes that he will 3 bet with any king here which is probably not the case. I think it's a close decision between calling and raising, but I prefer to raise.

[Rico Suave]

Hey Alobar:

I think this is an interesting discussion about the turn play and I have a couple of thoughts here.

I think the raise the turn, take a free showdown and fold to a 3-bet play has a lot of merit. But I think its real strength is first, in punishing a semi bluff, as you can collect the bet on the turn that you will not collect on the river when he misses. Secondly, I think it is a stronger play when, if you are behind, you have a decent chance of improving and can collect the extra bet when you hit.

Obvioulsy, I could be wrong, but would be disinclined to buy the semi bluff here. I guess he could have a 9 and 2 clubs, that might make sense, but from his play, I would tend to give him credit for something. Perhaps he semibluffed the flop with a straight draw, but on the turn either it got there, or paired his K...that might make sense. Perhaps he has J9 and is one of those players that only 3-bets with the nuts. Perhaps he has KJ, who knows. But the fact that the bb has now bet into hero twice when our hero has shown nothing but strength leads me to believe that the bb has a hand.

Now if we are behind, then likely we are drawing fairly slim against something like J9, KJ, etc. (or drawing dead to a str8) Since we may have few outs, I think giving us the opportunity to collect exta bets when we hit becomes less of a factor. I guess what I am saying is that if we were sitting with a pair an overcard and a gutshot, then we have a reasonable chance of improving to a winner, and so collecting the extra bet when we hit is more important. If we are drawing to 3 outs, I would be less inclined to spend more so that I can collect extra bets when I hit. Does that make sense?

[ QUOTE ]
Also a raise here on the turn might fold out a hand like a pair+gutshot

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting a hand to fold would be nice, but I do not think it reasonable that you are going to get this guy to fold to a turn raise. He has now bet into hero twice. He surely will call the turn raise.

Also, I have made this turn raise in a situation like this, and a good percentage of the time, the yayhoo bets into me yet again on the river, even when a complete brick hits. Then I feel like a complete moron and give him yet one more bb.

I am not saying that a turn raise is bad, but I am not sure it is best here.

--Rico

[Sarge85]

Good Stuff everyone -

I raised the turn - (more out of tilt /images/graemlins/mad.gif than the sound rationale you all gave)

He called my turn raise.

River came the ultimate brick 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

He fired another volley at me - and like a calling station I gave him one more BB when he showed me KJ /images/graemlins/confused.gif


Sarge /images/graemlins/diamond.gif