just sold my fantasia :(

[astroglide]

quoth granny mae: "50 million votes cast, and the winner won by only 1 million votes. this is per seacrest just now on his talk show."

[GrannyMae]

don't blame you a bit astro. am still digging. i want to see nygel's comment myself, not just interpret what i heard. i'll likely follow suit based on the close vote tho. a profit is a profit so i'll be happy bailing now. however, being greedy is just stupid.

i know who i think the best singer is, but with just a 1mil vote difference out of 50 million, it is too risky.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/h0/dazdrool.gif

[jdl22]

Couldn't the voting just turn out to be a huge crapshoot of who can get their calls through?

I read an AP article in the Honolulu Star Bulletin where they tried to call from the home state of the final three during the call window. In all cases they got less than ten percent of their calls through (if I remember correctly they tried calling about twenty times, I think the most votes they cast for any of them were 2). In some cases the phones completely stopped working because the lines were overloaded.

What I'm getting at here is what if the people voting for the girl you didn't have your money on happened to be able to get through better than those for the girl you like?

[RiverMel]

Why would it make any difference in your prediction of who was going to win how big the margin is? Would you just assume that a huge margin of victory meant that a particular person had won? And if so, why?

[shandrakor]

Well, if Granny was right, then she felt there was one person with significantly more ability than the others. If so, then you would expect the winner to be decided by a noticable majority. The slim margin of victory suggests that there's quite a few different people each with strong followings, or that nobody has a strong following, in which case it's a little more a case of luck deciding the winner.

[Lori]

If Granny thought Fantasia would win by a huge margin, the only way Fantasia could lose would be by a tiny margin.

The vote has a tiny margin.

Lori

[BradleyT]

So how much money did you make and those of us that didn't heed granny's advice lose?

[GrannyMae]

Well, if Granny was right, then she felt there was one person with significantly more ability than the others.

this is exactly right. i expected a HUGE margin, and when the votes are close it is just crazy to hold on out of emotion.

HOWEVER, i have not sold yet. i have spent the entire day today researching every spoiler and comment made. one of the first things i ran into was the fact that i made an error. the margin was not 1 million votes. the actual statistic released was that there is only a 1% difference between the two. on 50 million votes, that makes it 500k diff, not 1mil.

here is the reason i have not yet sold. it is just one tiny factor out of many that are pointing me to sell, but this has given me the paitence to continue investigating before i pull the trigger.

directTV has had to issue a public apology today because a very large chunk of subscribers missed the first 15 minutes of the show. this means they missed diana's strongest performance.

another fact, while not as strong, was the analysis that in competitions like this, it is inevitable that there be a close vote. the reasoning is that there is limited phone lines being accessd by more people than the lines can handle. this means that both contestants will basically max out at around the same number, and the winner will only be determined because their fans were a bit more persistent when the lines eventually cleared some. last year, reuben won by only 180,000 votes, so the win margin this year, while still tiny, is larger than last year.

here are all the reasons i feel i should sell.

1. the judges trashed diana on third song and america hates that. the sympathy vote has proven its force already.
2. jasmine fans will likely vote diana because diana auditioned in hawaii. hawaii cast the most votes last week other than california and new york.
3. every forum i read has posters that claim to have voted diana hundreds of times, but nobody says that about fantasia. diana has some hardcore fans
4. cowell declared fantasia the winner last night, and the anti-cowell vote is more powerful than the pro-fantasia vote
5. the people who HATE fantasia, really HATE her. nobody seems to hate diana.
6. the judges have been sombre all day, and the exec producer was NASTY in an interview. that points to a diana win

what i am waiting for is the acess hollywood type shows that are coming on now at 7pm. i want to study nugel lythgoe's mood. that will tell me. the price has stayed at 72 to sell, so i have an hour to decide and still make decent money if i bail.

i have absolutely decided all or nothing tho. i won't sell a portion. maybe the smart move is to buy some diana's now to protect the potential loss, but i have not done the math on it to see if it does anything for me.

oh well. i'll probably hold them

oye

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/l0/bored.gif

actually, randy jackson is on extra now and he looks VERY pissed.

[Senor Choppy]

Wow. Very smart move.

Shorting her at 75 seems like the only way to stay in the market given the fact that it's virtually a coinflip.

[GrannyMae]

i'll bet he made 30 points/contract. not bad, and too much of a gain to risk it for an extra 28

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/j0/clever.gif

[Lori]

Seems odd if the voting has closed that major bets haven't been placed.

If the market moves significantly it is one of the few times that following the market is probably wise.

Lori (Based on last years big brother betting)

[eggzz]

I hope all your points are right on Granny, because I just pounded Diana at Intertops at +250. I got her for a smaller wager last night, she was at +300.

Fantasia was -600 last night, and is at -400 right now.

Water cooler talk today tells me that Diana won. Our local paper also did an online poll and Diana won that 55% to 45% for what its worth.

[rusty JEDI]

Granny must of sold her fantasias....She just took a huge hit at wsex.

rJ

[rusty JEDI]

With 1% difference out of 50 million votes it is pretty much even money. And with the market sitting at

Fantasia....75-80
Diana.......22-27

The EV is good on Diana.

I just bought some.

rJ

[GrannyMae]

Granny must of sold her fantasias

was not me, but it sure did just take a huge hit.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/d/az.gif

[rusty JEDI]

AMER-IDOL2004 FANTASIA BARRINO 65 70
AMER-IDOL2004 DIANA DEGARMO 30 35



rJ

[Lori]

Er!!!

Buy the 70 at wsex and sell the 75 at intertops NOW!

Lori

[GrannyMae]

AMER-IDOL2004 FANTASIA BARRINO 65 70

OK, done deal.

i'm holding. maybe the stupidest decision yet, but i absolutely smell some manipulaton in order to create some last minute profit taking.

$11,900 bye bye?? oh well. i smell a rat with that big market move and i'll stick to my guns.

lil' sweat needed.

table: kitchen
site: I-95 exit 43 in Ct.

i'll be back later to be laughed at. if nothing else, i will have a built in excuse not to loan any $$$$

wooooooooooooooooo

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/a/byebye.gifhttp://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/a/bye.gifhttp://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/a/byebye.gif

MAE ----&gt; <font color="red"> OUT </font>

[Lori]

All the best Granny.

Lori

[Daliman]

Well, I'm gonna go with my gut here and hope this is all just bluster for ratings. Even if i sold, I'd only get about 63 per, which is of course, better than nada. I can't put it past the populace that voted in JPL and John Stevens to blow this one too I'm taking my son out for dinner and shopping, and am not even going to worry about it. Heck, it's only $6700.....

[Lori]

This might be of use:

Do you know who you're voting for this week?
Yep. Decided months ago
77%
I think so. Not sure
10%
We'll see how it goes
9%
No idea
4%
Total Votes: 248619

[LLAMA]

[ QUOTE ]
3. every forum i read has posters that claim to have voted diana hundreds of times, but nobody says that about fantasia. diana has some hardcore fans

5. the people who HATE fantasia, really HATE her. nobody seems to hate diana.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll admit, my family and I hate Fantasia so much that I actually voted for the first time...usually I don't care that much and just watch it while the family is watching. I didn't just vote once either, we went all out with the home phone and 2 cellphones calling the seperate numbers for the entire 4 hours. Was so easy to hit flash and redial on the speakerphone while not hindering me from my poker.

Not that I want you to lose money, Granny, but if it's Diana that wins you can chalk the extra 500k votes up to me lol.

[astroglide]

i believe my cost per contract was 34, sold at 75

[HUSKER'66]

Way to stick to your guns, congrats!


Husker