Euro 2004 bets

[Iceman]

Here's what I'm thinking for Euro 2004:

Best team in Group A besides Portugal: Spain at 1.6
Best team in Group B besides France: England at 1.7
England to make exactly the semis at 6.0

Any thoughts?

[dogsballs]

If you go on recent past history in such events, then england to get exactly the semi's is a lock. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

If you're picking next best teams in groups, try sweden. I fancy them to go through - a lot.

[Iceman]

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If you go on recent past history in such events, then england to get exactly the semi's is a lock. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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You guys have had disappointing WCs and ECs lately...I was in Tokyo for the last WC, and the British expat community was practically in mourning after the loss to Brazil. Frustrating to see shite teams like Turkey and Korea (and Germany for that matter) make it farther! (and we won't even talk about EC 2000...)

I think 6.0 is a really good price for that...if they finish #2 to France they'll get the Spain-Portugal winner, and then probably Italy if they win that. If they beat France (or draw them and then really beat up on Croatia and Switzerland), they'll get the Spain-Portugal loser. I think they can win one of (France, Spain/Portugal), but I don't see them going to the finals.

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If you're picking next best teams in groups, try sweden. I fancy them to go through - a lot.

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Sweden is 2.25 to be the best in Group C besides Italy...and the Czechs are 1.90 to be the best in Group D besides Germany. I might bet all four of those - I don't see any bargains for group winners or suprise qualifiers. I always look for weaker teams that might get lucky by playing a strong team that's likely to win its first two games and then rest all its real guys for the third group game, but Bulgaria, Latvia, and Switzerland play the favorites last and they're really too weak to beat even their reserves.

(These bets are all on premierbet.co.uk by the way.)

[dogsballs]

FWIW, England's not my team. My team, scotland, didn't make it /images/graemlins/frown.gif. So I'm rooting for sweden and the czechs.

As long as Sweden don't slip up against bulgaria in the first game, they should go through. However, getting 2nd place only gets them into a likely confrontation with the dutch - or germany in the 2nd round (I made a long shot punt on tehm to win teh whole thing as soon as I heard Larsson had declared himself available to play /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif.

I think your czech bet of 1.9 for 2nd spot is a good one - an understimated team.

I need to go look at some bets offered on this thing.

[dogsballs]

I looked at teh bets quickly just now. Correct me if I misunderstand the betting system.

I see Larsson is 51-1 for the golden boot in the tourney. But E/W is placing 1,2,3 or 4th (?) for one quarter odds. I say that's a steal. Larsson's played in the backwater of the scottish premiership the past 7 years, so has been pooh-poohed within Europe, but he's in his prime and really is an outstanding striker, with a great strike rate in european competitions too. Bulgaria are weak and the danes are leaky at the back...so he may bag a couple there.

you could also say I'm just on a Larsson kick /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Iceman]

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I looked at teh bets quickly just now. Correct me if I misunderstand the betting system.

I see Larsson is 51-1 for the golden boot in the tourney. But E/W is placing 1,2,3 or 4th (?) for one quarter odds.

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E/W ("each way") means that 50% of your bet goes on Larsson to win, at 51-1, and 50% goes on Larsson to finish as one of the 1st through 4th highest scorers, at a quarter of his win odds, 12.75-1. They don't let you just make the 1st through 4th bet.

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I say that's a steal. Larsson's played in the backwater of the scottish premiership the past 7 years, so has been pooh-poohed within Europe, but he's in his prime and really is an outstanding striker, with a great strike rate in european competitions too. Bulgaria are weak and the danes are leaky at the back...so he may bag a couple there.

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While Sweden-Italy could be a high scoring game, and he could put more than one through against Bulgaria, he's likely to only see four games, and the Sweden-Denmark game is third, and so is likely to result in one of those squads playing for a draw. Also, the rest of the Sweden squad is pretty mediocre - if they're outclassed across the pitch against Italy and Holland/Czechs, then Larsson won't get many good opportunities. My pick for the Golden Boot is Pauleta at 14-1 - he gets to play Russia and Greece, he's his team's primary scoring threat (unlike Raul/Morientes or Henry/Trezeguet), he has a great midfield behind him, and his team could easily play six games.

10/11 that Portugal and Spain are Group A's qualifiers in either order...might put major cash on that.

[Simon Diamond]

then Larsson won't get many good opportunities.

Henrik Larsson doesn't need many opportunities - he's god. But I think you're right, unless Sweden progress deep then he won't win the Golden Boot.

Oh, be prepared for some major disappointment if you do put some money on England. We always seem to come up short - heres hoping for change.

Simon