Folding a big pair

[MaxPower]

I played this hand in an unusual way (for me). MP3 was a rock. His PT notes revealed that his VP$IP was 9% and his PFR% was 5% after about 250 hands. The only two hands that he has raised with and shown down were pocket aces. I have never seen him 3-bet.

I don't know anything about UTG.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: MaxPower is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">MaxPower raises</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MaxPower calls.

I usually cap here, but I didn't because of being 3-bet by the rock. I decided I was going to play my hand more passively than normal.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MaxPower checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MaxPower calls.

Nice and passive huh? I'm getting 15-1 on my call. I could be ahead, but I'll find out on the turn.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MaxPower bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, MaxPower folds, MP2 folds.

What do you think of my fold?

[Jezebel]

Max,
I don't really like it. You didn't cap preflop or bet the flop so you really haven't told anyone that you have a big hand. When the turn gets raised and reraised, it is difficult to know where you stand since you haven't told them that you actually have a hand. I'm capping with KK against the Rockest of Rocks and betting the flop when no Ace hits 100% of the time. Only make adjustments after you have let them know you mean business, and they still fire bets and raises at you.

[StellarWind]

You need to cap preflop. You do not have statistically significant evidence that he cannot have QQ or AK or even less for the 3-bet. 5% PFR is actually quite a bit. This is a 4-way pot and you cannot afford to take such an extreme position. You must have more than a 25% chance to win.

Similarly you cannot give everyone a free ride on the flop. Bet or checkraise because you have a much better than 25% chance of winning the hand.

The turn is baffling. I can only assume you have run into 66, 55, 44, or A5 UTG. Between that threat and the rock you probably should fold.

This deal carries an important lesson. Never get so fixated on one opponent that you forget you are in a multiway pot. Even if MP2 has AA half the time, you can still make money by being aggressive and soaking the calling stations. Just remember to shift gears into call-down mode if they drop out.

[Aces McGee]

I like the fold because UTG is involved in the hand.

But I don't particularly like the way the hand was played. Heads up, that may be an okay line to take, but with UTG and BB involved, I think you need to show your strength early on to get a better idea of what their aggression means.

McGee

[StellarWind]

Just had another idea.

Wouldn't it be funny if UTG had 88 or something similar? You've given him every reason to believe he can knock you out with a bluff and get heads up with MP2's potential overcards. For one extra bet this semibluff is a great investment.

I still agree that you need to fold the turn. But this highlights an additional risk of the way you played the earlier streets.