Anyone else in the PS 250k tonight?

[stupidsucker]

I won my seat playing those $3 tourneys..(I find them pretty easy)

I thought about(still am thinking) just taking the tourney dollars, but I feel I have a 50% or greater chance just to make it to the money.

Anyone play this before? I am curious on how it plays out most of the time. How tough is the competition?

I also figured I would post my progress here , because if people are watching me, I know I will play better.

I am TehBluffman on Pokerstars.
And yes the scary looking geek picture is indeed me.

[Army Eye]

You're nuts if you think you have a 50% chance of making the money. Nobody, not even Ungar, could make that claim in a 1,100+ strong field.

Not that I'd want to discourage you from playing. Selling for tourney bucks is the wuss move /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I won a $3 seat last night too.

[stupidsucker]

When I say money I mean bare minimum money, and I often get there as long as I play tight..

I have noticed that almost without fail at the first break the tourney is already 50% lower field.

Unless I take a bad beat or run monster into monster I can make it past the first break with my eyes shut..

If the tourney goes to 1000+ then it pays out 135 places I think..Perhaps 50% into the lower end of the money is ridiculous, I dont have enough experiance to know.

I still like my chances to see the bottom end of the money scale. Maybe I have just been running real good in multis lately.(not good enough for finals, but seeing the money around 45%)

[ClemsonAce]

I'll be playing in the event, same screen name.

[shaniac]

Aiming to merely make the bottom end of the money is not a +EV strategy, or if it is barely. The bottom end of the money will pay about $250-300, so you'd be better of taking the T-Money and playing sit and gos.

A tight, survival strategy will put you in a spot where eventually (right around the time the blinds hit 600/1200) you will still have to get lucky to survive.

My advice is play to win or don't play at all. That said, the tournament is beatable but if you're aim is just to make the bare minimum money, I'd recommend using the $215 elsewhere.

Shane

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I've played in it a few times. You'll face a lot of reraises from LAG players if you have a tight image. I won a seat in a 2-table SNG for today, but I decided to take the Tournament Dollars and use them for a few $11 + rebuy events. Better EV for me I think.

[d'Amphoux]

Agree with Shaniac. I play em every week, and going into mid-tourney with below average is a losing proposition. Get some chips early, but do it with solid play. Then when the bigger blinds/antes show up you have ammunition to pop a few and protect yourself.

Mike

[stupidsucker]

I will be playing to win this one.
It is the only reason I am playing at all instead of just taking the T215.

Next week I begin job hunting, and to a lot of you this may sound like a backwards reason, but my bankroll is low atm and losing 200 bucks isnt going to make or break anything, but winning 2k or even drooling at the thought of taking home 1st is a huge step forward.

While playing poker without having a job , I have been able to make ends meet, but cant play the games I know I can beat because of safety bankroll issues. I always make sure to stay 1 month ahead of bills.

This is my last ditch effort to luck into a large sum of money to bankroll off of. If I opt to take the T215 I will be forced to look for work anyways. I have been living off just poker since Feburary, but I am starting to feel the need to get a job too /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

I am normally very good at building a stack, I play tight, but I also like to make good reads and play against a board I think I can make someone muck a hand. I run into problems over doing it at times.

I had a terrible week last week, I am hoping the big turn around is here and now!!!!

(I am willing to deal with the reality that this 215 is being thrown down the drain, but I like to keep a clean winning spirit)

TehBluffman

[d'Amphoux]

[ QUOTE ]
I won my seat playing those $3 tourneys..(I find them pretty easy)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the time to play in those $3 marathons. However, the new $11 Turbo Rebuy satellites on Stars are a great deal. With a reasonable headcount, and done in about 2 hours, it is much better in my opinion. Maybe it just fits my style better, but I will say that this past week I played 6 of em spending $31 on average, and got the seat in 4. Thats positive EV. $186 to win $645. I'll take T$ any day.

And yes, I will be playing .. PS name is d'Amphoux.

Mike

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

but I feel I have a 50% or greater chance just to make it to the money.


[/ QUOTE ]

You feel wrong, noone will have that kind of edge. And playing to scrape a money finish is not a great strategy.

[stupidsucker]

We've already covered that Tosh......

and I agree, the statement was made in haste without thinking clearly.

[Stoneii]

yes, I'm in tonight as well. Got my win in the 500FPP multi on Monday.

G'Luck

stoneii

[stupidsucker]

It begins!
I am on table 47...
and oh well if no one cares.. I am rooting for me!

[TheLoser]

I am playing this week, just lost 4k pot to 2 outer, board is 886 we go all in, he has 77 and I have qq, 7 on turn.

[RiverMel]

I'm in it. Currently 198 / 866 left at the first break. I'll post when it's down to a few tables and I need sweating.

Love,
Rivermel

[stupidsucker]

Im looking to take an early exit..

Had one nice hand followed by someone slowing KK.
after that I couldnt make anything work. Not seeing any good cards, and Im milked down to 700 seeing flops with AK, and missing badly.

Ive also tried to put in a few moves, but Im getten tore up so far hehe :/

[stupidsucker]

D' if you are reading this, that guy Charas liked to bluff heavily when I played him..He is 2 seats to your left right now.

Of course you cant be too sure...

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
but I feel I have a 50% or greater chance just to make it to the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're an idiot if you think this is true.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
You're nuts if you think you have a 50% chance of making the money. Nobody, not even Ungar, could make that claim in a 1,100+ strong field.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about Stuey, I think 50% probably sounds close. I never saw him play but have read a ton about him, and man, could that guy play or what? Too bad we'll never know how good he truly was. His record in NL tournaments was unreal.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but I feel I have a 50% or greater chance just to make it to the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're an idiot if you think this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice.

[stupidsucker]

I got hit by a moronic call imo

ATs UTG I push with 800 chips
BB has 200 in and calls with K3o.

He had about 2.5k in chips..

He flops a 3, I dont hit my cards he takes it down Im out..

What a pissy way to go out.

[stupidsucker]

About the 50% thing,....

Weve been through all this..

I yield.. I yield...

People keep reading the first post (which isnt editable)
then posting the same thing..

I have been put into my place...
and it was barely even top 50% :/

Lost my first hand and played short stacked the rest of the way till I fizzled out in 481st.

I will return next week with more stupid things to predict!

Since I lost this one, my chances are much higher to place the next one..I figure I have at least an 80% chance to hit the money and 35% chance for final table.If I lose next week, then I am a shoe in for 1st place the following week.


---note--- To those that dont understand my humor... I am kidding. I know my chances are still going to be 50% just like last time..

there I go.. kidding again.



I

[TheLoser]

I was sittin pretty well, blinds 1000/2000 I lose a 20 k pot with AK vs AJ, 3 hands later I lose 12k pot with A9 vs a3, I am all in right now witrh 142 people left with AK

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about(still am thinking) just taking the tourney dollars, but I feel I have a 50% or greater chance just to make it to the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to last about 3 hours to make the money in this tournament. Double up early and then start stealin' during level 8 or 9. And rem. from Doyle Brunson "Don't bluff a sucker".