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View Full Version : Luck vs. Skill @ the WSOP


jasonHoldEm
05-22-2004, 10:24 PM
Something I was thinking about concerning the luck vs. skill debate on the WSOP.

I think people are forgetting two important factors regarding tournament poker. First, the luck factor in a tournement is controlled by the escalation of blinds & antes. Cards can run good or bad but they will even out over time...just like a ring-game. Although the variance is clearly higher for a tournment player, skilled players CLEARLY have an edge as long as the blind/ante escalation is reasonable.

Second, the WSOP is a very LONG event. The professional players have been here before, know what to expect, have conditioned their bodies and minds to continue to preform optiminally even on day three or four when you've been playing for 10-15 hours a day. Who do you think is more likely to make a mistake at this point in the tournement a seasoned pro or Joe Blow?

Anyways, I just wanted to sound off. I think if you asked the top 100 "name" pros playing in the WSOP main event how they felt about the size of the field they would all tell you they were [censored] ecstatic. Clearly the WSOP is not a crapshoot.

J

Baulucky
05-23-2004, 07:22 AM
With all the big "names" that went out on the first day, that even "post & fold" would have outperformed, it makes you wonder hard what "optimal" tourney strategy is...

Buy maybe those $10K+ they lost are peanuts compared to what they make in the side games...

daryn
05-23-2004, 07:25 AM
hey, bad beats happen, whether your name is TJ Cloutier or not. i don't know exactly what went down though.

Baulucky
05-23-2004, 07:57 AM
I guess they play hard for a big stack early and if they get beat, they go to the side games. That may be optimal EV for them, but far from whatever is "optimal tourney strategy", whatever that is.

citanul
05-23-2004, 11:21 AM
My thoughts on the "crapshoot" argument:

I believe that when the field gets extremely large, then the result of the first place finisher becomes largely a crapshoot.

However, I believe that of course, that the ratio (Pros Finishing in the money):(Pros entering the tournament) will be greater than (Random people in the money):(Random people entering the tournament).

Will the pros be happy with this? Of course. None of them are upset with some Schmo winning first prize - All the top money positions are hyper inflated with large entry pools! And while yes, the 5 mil or whatever for first is nice, the 2-30th place moneys are very good as well.

Also, I think that there are a fair number of people attending from the internet poker sites who are as good if not better MTT players than many "pros" who will be playing in the main event.

Just my thoughts,

citanul