Was this AK flop fold weak?

[chesspain]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 appeared to be a tight, reasonable player. The Button was fairly new to the table. BB would coldcall with any two cards preflop that look pretty.

Preflop: chesspain is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">chesspain 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, chesspain calls, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, chesspain folds...

[rigoletto]

Yes: you get 16:1 on a flop call with draws to top pair and backdoor flush and straight. I think I would raise on the flop for a possible free card and to gage wether it's worth continuing on the turn.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes: you get 16:1 on a flop call with draws to top pair and backdoor flush and straight. I think I would raise on the flop for a possible free card and to gage wether it's worth continuing on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking was that MP2 was a decent player who likely thought the same of me. Consequently, based upon his PF cap, I had him on reasonably small range of hands (AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQs), against most of which I am now a big dog. Throw into the mix the fact that there are still two players left to act after me, and I did not get a good feeling about chasing.

In addition, doesn't your suggestion for me to raise cut my immediate odds down to 8:1, assuming that this does accomplish getting the hand heads-up (and I don't face a reraise)? From this point forward, especially since implied odds won't help me much, since I won't get much action if I spike an A or K and it does not help my opponent, am I really going to win this hand at least 15% of the time?

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes: you get 16:1 on a flop call with draws to top pair and backdoor flush and straight. I think I would raise on the flop for a possible free card and to gage wether it's worth continuing on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking was that MP2 was a decent player who likely thought the same of me. Consequently, based upon his PF cap, I had him on reasonably small range of hands (AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQs), against most of which I am now a big dog. Throw into the mix the fact that there are still two players left to act after me, and I did not get a good feeling about chasing.

In addition, doesn't your suggestion for me to raise cut my immediate odds down to 8:1, assuming that this does accomplish getting the hand heads-up (and I don't face a reraise)? From this point forward, especially since implied odds won't help me much, since I won't get much action if I spike an A or K and it does not help my opponent, am I really going to win this hand at least 15% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

By calling down your effective odds are about 6:1 (presuming others fold), so I think raising is better because you want the button to fold. A fold is a viable option given your read, but I still think I want to see the turn and see if he really means buisness. One reason is that I don't like the image of being moved of a 3-bet hand that easily.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
By calling down your effective odds are about 6:1 (presuming others fold), so I think raising is better because you want the button to fold. A fold is a viable option given your read, but I still think I want to see the turn and see if he really means buisness. One reason is that I don't like the image of being moved of a 3-bet hand that easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like getting pushed off a hand that easily either, and even given my read on MP2 I might have continued if:

1. A queen hadn't flopped, and
2. I had known more about the button. All I knew at that moment is that I hadn't noticed him until this hand, so I couldn't tell if he was a new fish or someone halfway decent who was calling three bets with a hand that was either a decent pair or contained one of my outs.

[Randy Burgess]

I don't like a flop raise here, but I'd call MP2 down every time. Here's my hitting-the-gnat-with-a-hammer analysis:

If what chesspain says is correct about the type of player MP2 is and what kind of player MP2 in turn thinks chesspain is, the preflop cap indicates a pretty small range of hands: QQ or better, AK or AKs, but probably not JJ or AQs, which should be scared of QQ, AA, KK, or AK. We get a little additional information from the fact that chesspain is holding AK, and the flop comes with a Q.

Ways MP2 can make a pair of Queens in this situation: (3 2), or 3. Ditto for AA or KK - 3 ways each. There are 9 ways for MP2 to make AK, two of which produce AKs. This gives a total of 18 ways for MP2 to hold one of the hands in question; thus the relative chances he's holding a particular type given chesspain's hand and the flop are:

QQ: 3/18, or roughly 16.67 percent
KK: ditto
AA: ditto
AK or AKs: 50 percent

We could go crazy and try to construct multiple scenarios here based on percent probability of this and that hand developing, but to make things really simple, let's say chesspain goes ahead and calls MP2 down in all cases, including calling any river bets - after all, it's 50 percent he might be tied! This also leaves out those few times a heart flush develops with no pair, giving chesspain clearance to raise - but let's likewise say he gets no extra profit out of those situations, since in fact his opponent might well fold to a bet on a four-heart board he has no piece of.

If we say the BB folds the flop even without a raise, which could well be the case, that lets us use PokerProbe to run a head-up simulation to the river for each type of hand MP2 could hold. We can then plug the results into an EV equation.

Win share vs QQ: 5.20%
Win share vs KK: 17.80%
Win share vs AA: 6.40%
Win share vs AK or AKs: 52.30%
Ties vs. AK or AKs: 47.70%

When chesspain wins his profit is = 16.5 BB + 2.5 BB, or 19 BB. His loss when he calls along and loses is - 2.5 BB.
His profit when he ties is 16.5/2 or 8.25 BB.

Plus everything in and we get an expectation of:
E = (.052*.1667 + .178*.1667 + .064*.1666 + .523*.5)*19 - (.948*.1667 + .822*.1667 + .936*.1666)*-2.5 + .477*.5*8.25

This solves as 8.9946811 average profit, or basically 9 BB.

It's possible that a) my math is wrong, b) my assumptions are wrong, or c) I haven't explored alternate and better scenarios than just calling down. For example, everything changes if you throw out AK (but not AKs) from the hands MP2 might jam with preflop.


But what really bothers me about all of this is how would you ever use it in actual play? My first thought upon seeing chesspain's post is that I would have called the flop in hopes of either making my backdoor flush or spiking an A or K and hoping MP2 just had Queens or something similar - but that was a seat-of-the-pants reaction.

And I'm not sure I would really ever say to myself ("QQ, KK, AA, AKs, AK, yes - but JJ, AQs, no") or whatever. I don't think that precisely when the action hits. Roy Cooke seems to, but he's a god.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
If we say the BB folds the flop even without a raise, which could well be the case, that lets us use PokerProbe to run a head-up simulation to the river for each type of hand MP2 could hold. We can then plug the results into an EV equation.

Win share vs QQ: 5.20%
Win share vs KK: 17.80%
Win share vs AA: 6.40%
Win share vs AK or AKs: 52.30%
Ties vs. AK or AKs: 47.70%

When chesspain wins his profit is = 16.5 BB + 2.5 BB, or 19 BB. His loss when he calls along and loses is - 2.5 BB.
His profit when he ties is 16.5/2 or 8.25 BB.

Plus everything in and we get an expectation of:
E = (.052*.1667 + .178*.1667 + .064*.1666 + .523*.5)*19 - (.948*.1667 + .822*.1667 + .936*.1666)*-2.5 + .477*.5*8.25

This solves as 8.9946811 average profit, or basically 9 BB.



[/ QUOTE ]

Randy,

You seem to believe that calling down unimproved is a good move because of the likelihood that I will be chopping with AK enough of the time to make a profit on all of the dead money already in the pot. However, remember that there was a fourth player in this pot, the Button, who called three cold pre-flop. If he is a calling station, he could easily call down with a hand like 99/TT/JJ/KQs/QJs, especially if the turn and river bring rags. How would this change your analysis?

[rigoletto]

Or you could just say:

1) raising the flop and betting the turn if just called cost you 2 BB and you might fold another AK and avoid the split.
2) raising the flop calling a 3 bet and folding the turn to a bet (unless you hit) cost you 1.5 BB
3) calling down cost you 2.5 BB and often you'll split.

[Randy Burgess]

Yeah, I overlooked that. I was remembering your statement that the BB liked "any two cards that looked pretty." That made me think that his hand range wouldn't be that good - but maybe I'm wrong and he's more of a threat.

But now I'm thinking that rigoletto's idea of a flop raise is the best move, for something I hadn't even thought of before. Let's say you raise and the BB does fold, and MP2 merely calls rather than jammming: You are setting it up so that those times the two of you are tied, you have more of a chance of hogging the whole pot by betting out if a blank falls on the turn and he checks to you, ditto this on the river.

I don't have time right now to do any more fancy calculating, but if I trusted my read that much on MP2's range of hands, I think the flop raise might be better for that reason. But as I've said, I'm not sure I could think this fast in action and I'm not sure I'd trust my read unless I knew MP2 extremely well.