To wuss, or not to wuss...

[Saborion]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 is loose both pre and post, *seem* to bet when he has something. Not 100 % though.
UTG cold-called my KQo EP raise with AJs in an earlier hand. HU, he called to the river where he raised and capped with his turned nut flush on a 7QK7K board. How about that?

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO (poster) folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

River: (10.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls. What's my action?

Edit: Removed my action.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

I think i would call. 12:1, your hand is prolly good enough of the time. But then again, im a limit noob /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[balkii]

I think you can raise here.

[Saborion]

Oh, I'm quite sure my hand is good way more than 12:1. The question is, should I raise?

[Saborion]

Only 2 posters? I'm bumping it, maybe someone missed it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Homer]

My decision would hinge on whether I thought this player would raise preflop with KT or JT.

[Kevroc]

Hmmmm... UTG was pre-flop raiser, he could have AQ or AXs... the overcaller in the middle had to have something to stay, I'm thinking either the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif or something like KQ/KJ. If there weren't a pre-flop raiser, I'd prolly raise here but, with that UTG presumed strength AND the overcaller calling from trapped spot.... I think its a call.

[chesspain]

I think a lot of boils down to how good you will feel about having to call a three-bet here. Based upon your betting pattern and the fact that the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif is on the board, UTG likely knows that you don't have either the flush or AQ for the straight. However, he could more easily have AQ. In addition, although MP2 is loose, is he loose enough to call for two more if it comes back three-bet?

[Saborion]

I don't think he would, but I really don't know.

[Saborion]

I'm not sure if MP2 is that loose. But he sure was loose, so maybe.

[Saborion]

I only called. I'm not sure why since I thought about it for a while. Felt weak. I wasn't worried about MP2 since I'm quite sure I would've heard from him somewhere, by the river at least.

And I'm also quite confident that UTG didn't have a flush, since I think he would've played it differently. So either the T helped him somehow, or he's likely to have KK. But I think I would've heard from KK earlier as well, not sure though given how he played his nut flush against me on the double-paired board earlier.

So my most likely thought was TT or AQo, with one spade. I'm not sure he would've called down all the way with TT, and I doubt he would without one spade if he held AQo.

Either way, he flipped over TT and I took it down. Was I weak not to raise given that the most likely holdings?

[Homer]

So my most likely thought was TT or AQo, with one spade. I'm not sure he would've called down all the way with TT, and I doubt he would without one spade if he held AQo.

I was thinking the same thing, which is why my decision would depend on whether he'd raise preflop with KT/JT. If he wouldn't, then there are 8 combos that beat you (AQ with a spade) and 3 that lose to you (TT), so there is no value in raising. If he could have KT/JT, there are 8 combos that beat you and 15 that don't, so raising becomes profitable even if you pay off a three-bet every time, due to the fact that the third player will sometimes overcall when UTG just calls your raise.

-- Homer