twitchy wrist push syndrome - how much do YOU bet??

[Peter Harris]

Okay, I have my results to post. But i realised that i possess a problem exclusive to NL that i need advice and drilling on not doing.

It basically involves me pushing all in with the best hand. I know a bet that big will not be called (unless they have a better one!). I should be value betting, but i can't seem to do it. I think i fear a reraise (irrationally). Maybe it's the security of no showdown.

Here's the hand. What's your river bet? Note he gives me the odds to call down the flush, how odd /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t710)
MP2 (t1405)
MP3 (t5)
CO (t1540)
Button (t740)
Hero (t740)
BB (t680)
UTG (t735)
UTG+1 (t755)
UTG+2 (t690)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t90) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets t55</font>, Hero calls t55, BB folds.

Turn: (t200) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets t50</font>, Hero calls t50.

River: (t300) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets t605 (All-In)</font>, UTG folds.

Final Pot: t905
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: t300 (t300), won by Hero.</font>
<font color="#990066">Pot 2: t605 (t605), overbet by Hero.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows 5d 4d (flush, ten high).
Outcome: Hero wins t905. </font>


Back on my 41st-50th SNG's, all NL:
1st: 2
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
5th: 3
6th: 1
7th: 1
9th: 1

The spread was scary: games 3-8 were 56795. starting to sweat.

ITM: 40% ROI: 36%
Profit: $40, overall $170
Overall ITM: 40%, overall ROI 30.9%

Nice stats for the halfway stage, thanks again to tommy, without your thread i'd not be playing 50 SNGs in a week!!

Peter Harris

[SDA004]

I don't know if I would have chased that flush. With UTG betting post flop, I'd think he probably had a flush draw as well, and with 5d your highest card, Id assume his flush would have beat yours. Not to mention the fact that he could have also had the A, and then he's got you beat. I can see that he didn't make it all that expensive to chase, only t55 and t50, but I really would have thought he had the flush draw.

[Peter Harris]

i didn't think he had the draw, which is why, in combination with the odds, i carried on.

The question remains: how much should i have bet? of course, you may well think none, given he could have made his higher flush, but of course that makes my all in bet even more stupid.

I think value betting in NL is a very weak part of my game, and am seeking help!!

Pete H.

[SDA004]

I'm not so sure the problem was in the river bet as much as it was in the way you played the whole hand. You telegraphed the flush draw by straight calling all the way, and then when that 3rd D fell you raised. It's almost so obvious that he may have been thinking you were bluffing, so that could have almost worked in your favor. I think you would have been better off re-raising on the flop once you picked up your flush draw if you decided you want to continue in the hand. Your straight calls and then final all in reeked of Flush. Also by re-raising the flop you could have also saved yourself a bet on the turn. Seeing you reraise on the flop would have slowed him down probably.

[PrayingMantis]

First, if we talk strictly about pot-odds, on the flop he does not give you the odds to draw. You paid 55 into a 145 pot, this is a bad call, in terms of pot-odds. On the turn it's 50 into a 250, which is better. However, considering both streets, you paid 105 to win 195 (without implied odds), which is marginal, and you did it with a very low flush, and, again, with almost no room for implied odds to help you. It does look like your opponent was betting some weak A, and was ready to fold if a diamond hit. Obviously, you shoud have bet less on the river, and hope he calls with his ace or whatever. Problem is - what do you do if he reraises? you are probably beaten by a higher flush.

Chasing by calling, even if the bets are pretty weak, like here, is not a good thing to do in NL SNGs, IMO, especially when the odds are marginal and your flush is so low (another point is that flushes usually don't give you good implied odds, as opposed to straights and hidden sets if they hit). You better play it stronger (raise him), or not at all. That's how I see it.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I would have chased that flush. With UTG betting post flop, I'd think he probably had a flush draw as well, and with 5d your highest card, Id assume his flush would have beat yours. Not to mention the fact that he could have also had the A, and then he's got you beat. I can see that he didn't make it all that expensive to chase, only t55 and t50, but I really would have thought he had the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds rather weak tight.

[SDA004]

how would you describe calling all the way to the river and then going all in when you hit your flush? this play either needs to be tightened up or made more aggressive, and drawing to a low flush makes me think he should tighten it up.