Please tell me if I'm gushing chips like a broken water main...

[chesspain]

As I continue to be swept away in the torrent of bad cards and bad beats, I feel like I am struggling to avoid falling into some type of tilt, be it FPS, overaggression, or the weak-tights. Please take a look at the following two hands from Party 2/4, neither of which involves a bad beat.


Hand 1:
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Table is fairly typical...UTG+2 "plays any ace," whereas the CO is a solid, ABC player.

Preflop: chesspain is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, chesspain calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
chesspain checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, chesspain calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
chesspain checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, chesspain folds.
<font color="blue">Since I am getting close to 11:1 to close the action, should I have peeled one off here, since I have five good outs assuming no one has yet made a str8 or flush? </font>

River: (11.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 14.75 BB, between UTG+2, MP2 and MP3.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by MP3 (14.75 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG+2 shows Ad Js (two pair, aces and jacks).
MP2 shows Ah 3c (one pair, aces).
MP3 shows Ks Qc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: MP3 wins 14.75 BB. </font>

Hand 2:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Same table, although it has tightened up a bit. No read on main opponent.

Preflop: chesspain is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">chesspain raises</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">chesspain bets</font>, BB calls, CO folds.

Turn: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
chesspain checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, chesspain calls.
<font color="blue">Should I have bet and folded to a raise? And if I should have bet, and he only calls, do I then bet, checkcall, or checkfold the river?</font>

River: (6 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
chesspain checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, chesspain calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 8 BB, between chesspain and BB.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by BB (8 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
chesspain shows Ah Qs (one pair, aces).
BB shows 7h 7d (flush, ace high).
Outcome: BB wins 8 BB. </font>

[Homer]

Hand 1

I've been playing a little too much by feel lately, but this "feels" like a thin call.

You're getting 11:1, so you need a around 4 outs to make calling correct. You have 3 Q outs, which will be good about 60% the time (1.8 outs). You have 3 K outs, of which the Ks will almost never be good and the other two will be good about 40% of the time (.8 outs). You have 4 T outs, of which the Ts will almost never be good and the other three will be good about 80% of the time, though when they are good you'll be chopping about 25% of the time (2.1 outs). So, that's about 4.7 outs based on my numbers, which may or may not be sound. Looks like it is a thin call.

Hand 2

I would bet the turn and fold to a raise. If just called on the turn, I'd check the river planning to call a bet. Hopefully, I'll either induce a bluff from a worse hand that would not have called a bet or get a small flush to check behind.

-- Homer

[MaxPower]

Hand 1 - This is an interesting turn decison. Your pot odds are not as good as they seem, because you will sometimes be drawing to half of the pot or less. You really can't count on implied odds, because you will have to play cautiously when you hit your hand. I would probably call even though it might be -EV, because I can't resist.

Hand 2 - I would bet the turn and fold to raise. On the river, unless the guy is a frequent bluffer, you are a huge underdog when you check and call. So if you are going to put a bet in the pot, I'd rather you bet. You are still an underdog when called, but less than when you check and call. If the guy is extremely passive, check it and expect a free showdown. If he is a frequent bluffer, check and call.

[JTrout]

You have 3 Q outs, which will be good about 60% the time (1.8 outs).

He has 2 Q outs. (one is in his hand, one on the board)

[Homer]

Oops, okay then, instead of 4.7 outs he has 4.1 outs. So, I guess it's still a thin call.

[exist]

on hand 1: i don't like the call of the button's raise with KQo unless you KNOW the button would raise with a large variety of hands. i know the call is compensated for partially by the fact that you have to call only one small bet. buts it's going to cost you so much those times he has AK or AQ and that K or Q comes. so, i guess i'm saying i don't like the preflop call. maybe that's an area where you might be losing chips and getting trapped.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting 11:1, so you need a around 4 outs to make calling correct. You have 3 Q outs, which will be good about 60% the time (1.8 outs). You have 3 K outs, of which the Ks will almost never be good and the other two will be good about 40% of the time (.8 outs). You have 4 T outs, of which the Ts will almost never be good and the other three will be good about 80% of the time, though when they are good you'll be chopping about 25% of the time (2.1 outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you arrive at those percentages? 60 %, 40 % etc?

[sfer]

Hand 1: I'm assuming the Button who raised, not the CO who folded is solid ABC. I'm not real fond of the PF call.

Hand 2: I would bet the turn intending to fold to a raise. Check/calling the turn and the river lets any diamond know they're good.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
on hand 1: i don't like the call of the button's raise with KQo unless you KNOW the button would raise with a large variety of hands. i know the call is compensated for partially by the fact that you have to call only one small bet. buts it's going to cost you so much those times he has AK or AQ and that K or Q comes. so, i guess i'm saying i don't like the preflop call. maybe that's an area where you might be losing chips and getting trapped.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 9:1 to call this bet, assuming that no one is going to pull a limp-reraise. The only way I fold this hand is if I KNOW that the button is such a rock that he would only raise here with AA/KK. With the odds I'm getting I'll take my chances against the possibility of AK/AQ.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: I'm assuming the Button who raised, not the CO who folded is solid ABC. I'm not real fond of the PF call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it was MP3 who was the solid ABC player. Sorry for the confusion.



[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: I would bet the turn intending to fold to a raise. Check/calling the turn and the river lets any diamond know they're good.

[/ QUOTE ]

After reading the replies so far and rereading TOP's chapter on "heads-up play at the end," I agree that betting the turn, and then possibly even betting the river, was likely a better plan than checkcalling it down.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Doc,

Good fold on the first had, bummer about the river.

On the second hand I bet out, then fold to a raise.

[PraetorianAZ]

Hand 1: I've learned to fold this. At best it's a 50/50 play and just adds variance. Your outs are thin and will make expensive 2nd best hands.

Hand 2: Awful board and position. Make one last crying stab at betting the turn and fold to any playback.

It sounds like we're going through the same thing. In the past 5 weeks I've had 3 100BB, 3 50BB, and 2 75BB drawdowns. (breakeven overall) Feels like the only way to win is to fold pre-flop.

Another idea is that perhaps 2+2 tight aggressive advice doesn't work at 2/4 anymore. It's too straightforward and not enough fish to pay you off. Or maybe we're just running really bad.

[Steve S]

Hand 1 - Fold. You could be drawing dead and even then 4 of your outs will probably only give you half the pot.

Hand 2 - You have to bet the turn and fold to a raise. Once you check, he has to bet this here.

Steve

[BugsBunny]

Havewn't read any of the other responses yet, but here's my take.

Hand 1) You may already be drawing dead, or you may have 5 outs. Odds on 5 outs are ~8.5 to 1. The pot is offering an overlay at this point so I think peeling one off here is fine.

Edit: if the pot wasn't offering you an overlay then a fold would clearly be in order - you need the overlay to compensate for the times you're drawing dead or split. Right now this is probably close to neutral EV wise.

Hand 2) I would normally bet and fold to a raise. If he just calls then check/fold is probably best. I've had people fold better hands by me bluff betting into 4 flushes. I've also been called down by some pretty poor hands, so it's player dependent. With no read on the player I'd assume some small spark of rationality which means that he won't call the bet without something halfway decent.

On the river he's already called a bet with the four-flush on board, so he's not likely to fold to another bet. Unless he has the nuts (or close to it) he's likely to check behind. If he bets he may be stupid and bet with something like a small flush, but he's unlikely to bet without at least a flush.