AmerisourceBergen (ABC) my analysis

[Non_Comformist]

I purchase ABC on a on going basis it is a wholesale drug distributor and has a market cap of 6.5 billion.

The Numbers
Trailing P/E 13.9
3 year EPS avg P/E 19 /images/graemlins/confused.gif
5 year EPS growth 26.5% /images/graemlins/smile.gif

year-- EPS-- Dividend--- ROE ---Operating CF
2001--2.10--- 0 ----------4% --- (-45) (millions)
2002--3.16----.10 --------10% ---- 535
2003--3.89 ---.10 --------11% ----- 354

Other Issues

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Drugs and related health care is expected to grow long term as population ages

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Made recent 15.9 million acqusition and has made 2 this year and a few others in past years. This could be a sign of problems. the acquisitions have been small in nature.

/images/graemlins/diamond.gifFuture dividend is estimated to be .12 per share

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Changing regulatory environment is a risk

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Lost major customer (VA)in may. Management expects to return to 15% growth after may 2005

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif debt rating was recently upgraded to investment grade

A couple of questions.
What do you think of the company? would you buy?

How is my analysis? Am I missing anything? should I be looking at anything else as well?

[Non_Comformist]

I left out a couple of things

P/CF 10.8
P/BV 1.54
Debt/Total Capital 0.2
% owned by institutions 86.7%

I like the price/book value numbers and the debt/capital seem very reasonable. The price cash flow isn't bad either. However the 86.7% owned by institutions could be somewhat problematic at least short term as is could result in a large downward swings.