Do I have a value bet here?

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

4/8

In BB w/92o. Button is fairly new to table, has raised much but shown down no hands yet. 2 limpers, sb folds I rap.

Flop : 223 rainbow

I bet, folded to button who raises, I 3-bet. Button calls.

Turn: Q (223) Don't think there was a flush draw.

I bet, button calls.

River: 3 (Q223)

Do I bet this river w/ my crappy full house?

Thanks,
PT

[balkii]

Yes. You realize only a 3, or QQ beats you right? I think he has a low pocket pair. Bet and collect your chips.

[Ponks]

I think I'd bet here, he most likely doesnt have a 3. I'm guessing something like 6's or 7's.

Ponks

[Trix]

Yes, a medium pocket pair is probably his most likely hand.

[bdk3clash]

Note that the magic number here is 1/3--if our hero's opponent has a 3 1/3 of the time or more, it's -EV to bet, since his opponent will inevitably raise (assuming our hero will call, which he should.)

If the opponent has a 3 less than 1/3 of the time here, betting is +EV.

Personally, I'd check-call, but I'm a weak-tight sniveller.

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

Thanks for replies. Though I agreed with all other replies, I think bdk3clash's comments are most relevant. I did put button on small PP or A3s when he didn't 4-bet on flop or raise turn. Talked myself into his having a small PP when he called flop reraise and turn. When river came, I knew I might be beat, but after 4 months of reading posts here, there is a little man on my right shoulder a la Animal house that yells "bet the river". I now usually listen and have gone from barely making gas money to card room to fair winner. But I do not yet have the descression that I wish.

So the real question is not what the results were, but whether to make the bet or not. My feeling was the same as other respondents and I bet, was raised, called and shown 34s. If I think its a good bet, I'll make it again regardless of this hand. I'm just trying to learn how to know. Perhaps I should ask myself what Joe Strummer would do.

Thanks all for help,

PT

[bdk3clash]

Just because I was "right," doesn't mean I was right.

PS-Joe would have bet out for sure.

[lil']

I'd bet this. A lot of people raise this flop because it looks like a steal attempt by you.

[Bob T.]

Yes, you will get called by overpairs.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, you will get called by overpairs.


[/ QUOTE ]

More than 2/3rds of the time?

[Bob T.]

More than 2/3 of the time your opponent will have an overpair, and will call. After I wrote this, I thought about it, and I wondered if you checked, how often those same overpairs would bet. I think that you might not be missing out, if you check, because your opponent will usually bet those hands, so checking to elicit a bet from those overpairs might be a better line because it doesn't risk a raise from a 3.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Ralph Wiggum]

After the Hero 3-bet the flop and led the turn, I doubt that an overpair would bet this board.