Pot odds wrecked on turn, implied odds, judgement and mistakes [Archive]

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DogRockets

05-19-2004, 09:35 PM

Ok, here is a hand that came about after my pocket 55 post. Haven't been on this table very long and none of the players are know to me. What play I've seen here has been loose, wild and agressive with some very nice pots. Play of the hand, odds wise is good to the turn, where a raise wrecks my pot odds for the call... this is where some confusion sets in as I'm playing 3 tables whereas I usually play 1-2, and I make some mistakes. Comments please.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players) 
UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO raises, Button folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.66 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players) 
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG raises, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, CO 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (21.66 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players) 
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 21.66 BB
Main Pot: 21.66 BB, between UTG, UTG+2, Hero and CO. > Pot won by Hero (21.66 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG shows Ts Qh (two pair, queens and tens).
UTG+2 shows Ac 8c (one pair, eights).
Hero shows 8d 8s (three of a kind, eights).
CO shows 6h 6c (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins 21.66 BB. 

After going back and looking at this hand, 3 bet preflop?

Flop is decent, plenty of outs for a call with gutshot straight and set. Thinking I should have made it 2 bets here 1st then missed again making it 3 later....

Turn - Trouble here as I'm losing my outs with the 2nd club now. If I'm counting right, I'm down to 3 outs, losing the 8c 9c. So I'm seeing a 15:1 shot here at improving, and I'll need a pot of 170-180 to make this turn call proper. Getting in those extra bets preflop and on the flop would have helped here, correct? My judgement says the pot can get there with mutiple bets on the river, as each round so far has gone that way. Based on this judgement I call 2 bets here which is another mistake as I should have 3 bet to get closer to my implied odds?? Right or wrong??

Turn brings a hit, but even with a set, it may not be the best. Problem here is now that I've missed those earlier bets, I'll need at least 2 bets each here to hit that 170-180 pot. How best to get them? I figure at least 1 player is dead on a flush draw. When UTG and UTG+2 check, I have a choice to bet, which it could get called around and I don't make the number, bet and hope they raise, or check to CO who has shown a dispostion to bet on the early streets. I choose the check, assuming CO bets, it could be more than 1 bet when it gets to me or I can make it 2 if its called around. CO surprisingly checks it down and I never reach the number needed to make this bet worthwhile. Win or lose, I would need a pot of 180 here to make the 2 bet turn call proper. Am I on the right track? Thanks for your comments...

Trix

05-19-2004, 09:53 PM

I dont like the flop call with a preflop raiser behind you. The turn coldcall is even worse.
Bet the river, CO dont have a nine and the other probably dont either.

Yeknom58

05-19-2004, 10:17 PM

If you weren't going to bet your set on the river you shouldn't have counted them in your pot odds.

I think you could have raised the flop hoping to cut the field but I don't think a 3-bet would have been a good idea. I don't like to throw in raises when there's little chance my opponents will fold, I'm behind, and I have little chance of improving.

You turn call was bad.

brick

05-20-2004, 12:16 AM

I like the pre-flop call.

When it's 5 ways the folp and a preflop raiser is yet to act I would often fold. It he is a tight player who raises Ace Big, and the table is somewhat tight post-flop, I might raise.

Given that you called, I would fold for 2 bets on the turn. If the decision is as close as you think then why fret over it?

MarkD

05-20-2004, 12:31 AM

Take this post as constructive criticism as that is what I mean it as.
[ QUOTE ]
Turn - Trouble here as I'm losing my outs with the 2nd club now. If I'm counting right, I'm down to 3 outs, losing the 8c 9c. So I'm seeing a 15:1 shot here at improving, and I'll need a pot of 170-180 to make this turn call proper. Getting in those extra bets preflop and on the flop would have helped here, correct? My judgement says the pot can get there with mutiple bets on the river, as each round so far has gone that way. Based on this judgement I call 2 bets here which is another mistake as I should have 3 bet to get closer to my implied odds?? Right or wrong??

[/ QUOTE ]

This is extremely fuzzy thinking. I really did think you understand odds and implied odds until I read this. None of this makes any sense, I think you should look at it again and rethink it as your logic here is way way off.

Specifically:
[ QUOTE ]
So I'm seeing a 15:1 shot here at improving, and I'll need a pot of 170-180 to make this turn call proper. Getting in those extra bets preflop and on the flop would have helped here, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't think like this. It would be tremendously wrong to make mistakes on early rounds just so that you can correctly call on late rounds. Don't you agree?

Also...
[ QUOTE ]
Based on this judgement I call 2 bets here which is another mistake as I should have 3 bet to get closer to my implied odds?? Right or wrong??

[/ QUOTE ]

WRONG. A raise cuts your implied odds down drastically. In no way does a raise increase your implied odds.

Finally I think this is the most important street:
[ QUOTE ]
Flop is decent, plenty of outs for a call with gutshot straight and set. Thinking I should have made it 2 bets here 1st then missed again making it 3 later....

[/ QUOTE ]

With the two diamonds on the flop and the pre-flop raiser still to act behind you I would fold the flop. I don't like the 8 as an out and I don't like the diamond 9 much and it's quite likely the pre-flop raiser is going to raise behind you. All of these reasons drastically reduce your implied odds and turn this into a fold IMO.

Glad you won.

DogRockets

05-20-2004, 01:00 AM

This is extremely fuzzy thinking.

Looks like I got away with another bad one. I better lay off the Lortabs for a few days.

asdf1234

05-20-2004, 01:13 AM

The turn call is pretty awful.

MarkD

05-20-2004, 01:23 AM

Lortabs - is that a European brew?

Oh and if you have any specific questions as to why your thinking is fuzzy in terms of odds just post and someone will help.

Clarkmeister

05-20-2004, 01:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
if you have any specific questions as to why your thinking is fuzzy in terms of odds just post and someone will help.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still not sold that this guy is serious. But if he is, I admire everyone's effort here.

DogRockets

05-20-2004, 01:34 AM

Lortabs - is that a European brew?

Nahhh, just good old hydrocodone. And I am seeing where the mistakes in my reasoning and thinking are being made with yours and other help here. That's was why I posted this hand as it is one I've looked at several times. I've come to the conclusion you can't turn a bad play into a good play by looking at it from a different angle. Its like you can put a bag over her head, but it's still ugly underneath. I did warn ya that confusion had set in there. Thanks again.

MarkD

05-20-2004, 01:38 AM

I've thought about that possibility, but I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

BusterStacks

05-20-2004, 03:29 AM

holy crap, you played the turn like that and I'm still at .5/1? I imagine we'll probably meet at 1/2 heh... FOLD!!!

BugsBunny

05-20-2004, 05:40 AM

Raise preflop with only 1 limper in front of you.

Fold the turn. You need 7 to 1 for 6 outs (4 9's and 2 8's) the pot is offering about that after rake, but all your outs aren't clean. You don't know what you may make on the river, if anything, even if one of your cards does hit - everyone may fold since either of your outs leaves 4 to a straight on board. You really need an overlay in a situation like this to consider playing on, and you're not getting it here.

I can see either raising or folding the flop. You hold a diamond which reduces the chance that a diamond flush will occur (if a diamond hits it's less likely that an opponent has 2 diamonds, if an opponent has 2 diamonds a diamond is less likely to hit). But your 8 may give someone a straight. So it depends on what types of hands the others may be playing based on preflop action. Limpers are more likely to have a 9 then raisers or cold-callers. Just calling the flop is a mistake in my opinion. Raising preflop would have helped here.