Brain Lock Or Good Laydown?

[GuidoSarducci]

This play has been haunting me for the last couple of days, as it basically cost me the tourney. Most times I can feel confident, but I have to say this is the first time where I really honestly don't know what the right move was...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t570)
SB (t1990)
ICP_Paul (t595)
UTG (t1700)
MP1 (t865)
MP2 (t1615)
CO (t665)

Preflop: ICP_Paul is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 calls t50, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, ICP_Paul checks.

Flop: (t125) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">ICP_Paul bets t100</font>, MP1 calls t100.

Turn: (t325) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">ICP_Paul bets t75</font>, MP1 calls t75.

River: (t475) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">ICP_Paul bets t50</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises to t640 (All-In)</font>, ICP_Paul folds.

Final Pot: t1165
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: t575 (t575), won by MP1.</font>
<font color="#990066">Pot 2: t590 (t590), overbet by MP1.</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP1 doesn't show.
Outcome: MP1 wins t1165. </font>

The questions specifically were, with the flop I ended up with top pair. Should I have bet harder on this and, if called check to him and see if he bets out (and fold if he does?)

Some history, this guy has been doing a lot of limping up to this point. After this, he did call an all-in with overcards to a raggy board and lost to a guy holding an overpair, which hurt his stack.

[trumpman84]

I'm guessing this is what happened. If the guy flopped top pair with an Ace kicker...I'm thinking he would've reraised you there. I think he flopped second pair with an overcard or two overcards or a flush draw. He just called along and when you bet the minimum bet on the river, he sensed (and rightly so) an opportunity to steal the pot after his busted flush draw or sensing you didnt hold better than his second pair/high kicker. I don't think you slow play a set here with two diamonds on the board, so I'm thinking you had him beat, and if he truly thinks he has you beat with a monster hand, I think he's going to make a more reasonable raise in light of a minimum bet..a raise you are more likely to call.

[aslowjoe]

I think that you might have induced to bluff with the weakening of your bets of each round. If you had bet the same amount each round and he raised you on the river you were probably beat in this case
if I had to guess I would say you had the best hand. PP 5's
are the only likely hand that he had that would beat you.

[FloppedFlush]

Good bet on the flop. On the turn, you need to decide whether you have a hand you're willing to go to war with or not.

Your opponent called a T100 bet with T125 in the pot on the flop, so whatever hand or draw he was on is certainly going to be worth calling a T75 bet on the turn with T325 in the pot. If you think you have the best hand and are willing to go all the way with this hand, then put it all-in here (if you had started with more than T595, then make a normal sized bet of T250-T300).

If you're not willing to risk this being your last hand, then check and see what he does. The T75 bet gives you no new information and serves no purpose and other than to lose an extra 75 chips if he pops you back.

For what it's worth, with no other information about the opponent, I'd move all-in on the turn in a heartbeat here.
The decreasing bets each round scream weakness, and if you're going to scream weakness, it's cheaper to do it with a check than with a small bet. Now if you have a huge hand and are trying to induce a bluff -- then the decreasing bets can be effective.

If I had an average size stack, I'd be a lot more selective whether I'd get involved in a hand like this, but short-stacked and trying to double-up to get back in the hunt, I think top pair with second-best kicker is about the best I could hope for.

[GuidoSarducci]

Your point about the decreasing bets really spells it out. With a stack my size, I either need to pull the trigger on this hand on the river or get out of the way.

The wimpy betting was an invitation for him to come over the top. Maybe if I had the stone cold nuts this would be a good tactic.

Playing scared will kill you every time.

[Beavis68]

Ok, your first mistake was playing K-9, if you are going to bet it again on the turn, you need to bet more than your original bet, you had almost half your stack in on the end, you were committed to the hands and should have played it to completion.

But why call with K9?

[GuidoSarducci]

I was BB and was unraised, so I checked pre-flop. When I hit the top pair on the flop, this is where the decision to stay with it was born.

Only, I hadn't decided to stay with it, thus the funky betting. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[T0asty]

Even with the weak betting you done, I think you still need to call on the end because loseing this pot left you with 220? which leaves you a mountain to climb at this stage in the tourney.

If you call and he has you beat, you save time and can start the next tourney.

If you call and you have him beat, you now have a nice stack and a good shot of a ITM finish.

You fold, you either A make an amazing comeback for an ITM finish, B manage to build a bigger stack then bubble due to being a SS or C Bomb out in a few rounds looking to double up.

I call everytime! With the two 2s on board and if he held a two, I doubt he would have moved all in, maybe a value bet, unless he wanted you to think he was bluffing. 90% of the time I'd say he's bluffing.

A similar situation arised with me the other day when i raised 3BB with A6s, i was almost pot commited so called as folding held such small EV. He had JJ and i hit a lucky ace, to double and finally finished 2nd "I appologised to him and let him know he was a 72% fav". If I had folded even knowing i was probably behind, the few chips i had remaining left only a slim chance of a money finish.

Hope this makes sense.

PS If i bet the same way as you, and held a bigger stack i would have folded as I'd have enough chips left to compete for a ITMF.

[Jason Strasser]

You have to play this more agressively. After your flop bet, there are very few hands your opponent can have which are ahead of you. At this point, there is 325 in the pot, and your stack is around 400. I push here about 100% of the time. You have TPGK heads up, and more often than not you are ahead. Sure, he could have a set, but you are shortstacked, and you need to push here. Don't give him a chance to bluff at you.

The way you played it was awful. You can't decrease bet sizes! Check and fold if you are scared--or take up Canasta.

Good luck.

[patrick dicaprio]

you are the BB so your opponent has no idea if the flop hit you or not. you made a weak bet, so if he is going to bluff he should probably do it on the flop rather than wait. You bet twice with decreasing bets. WHile this could be a sign of weakness it could also be a sign of a trap. you have to llok at it from your opponnets perspective. he doenst want to get knocked out either and probably doesnt know what you hold.since he is in EP and just called he could easily have a set or something like TT or JJ.

so to take a contrary view to the other posters I think it is likely you are beaten on the river.but that doesnt mean you should fold. there is some chance based on the play of the hand that he is bluffing. plus you have almost no chips left anyway. so you should call on the river and if you are knocked out play another game.

as far as pushing all in on the flop this is a risky play and I wouldnt do it here. why lose all of your chips when you dont know whether you are the best hand? checking or making a bigger bet than you did but small enough that you dont have to go all in if called is probably the correct play.

Pat