do i just let this happen?

[astroglide]

raiser in this flop had been raising almost every hand for a round or two. stars 105+9 sng, 200/400 blinds + ante.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2065)
SB (t5980)
Hero (t3865)
UTG (t1590)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, Button folds, <font color="CC3333">SB raises to t1200</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t3840</font>, SB calls t2640.

Flop: (t7730) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>

Turn: (t7730) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>

River: (t7730) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>

Final Pot: t7730

Results:
Hero shows Ts As (one pair, tens).
SB shows Ad Js (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: SB wins t7730.

am i supposed to just let him steal here and hope one of the 2 shorter stacks busts? it seems too close for me to go for that.

[ZeeJustin]

I think this is a fine place to make a stand.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

I'd fold. You're usually either going to be behind or just slightly ahead if he calls, and your goal in a sit and go is to make the money, not play back at a chip leader without a premium hand. Once you get inside the money, then you would obviously re-raise allin in this situation. Clear fold IMO since you're not desperate for chips quite yet, and by folding you give yourself a better shot at the money. Now, if your hand were something like AK/AQ, or a TT or higher pocket pair I'd probably have to play back because your hand is just too strong. I hate making the move with AT knowing my opponent might call with KJ/KQ type hands where I'm not as far ahead as I'd like to be.

[Daliman]

I'd fold here in a half second. HE was pressing his stack, and doiing it well, it appears. I do it all the time. Not only do you let hiom do it, you fold any hand short of AK or TT doing so in this situation. Also, dont raise 3x blind into him, cuz he may raise any hand just to club you with his stack(unless you have a hand you dont mind him doing this with). Only time a stand is necessary is if only 1st place pays. Otherwise, bend over and take it till the $$$ comes in...

[USCUNC]

Yes, fold to the raise. He wants the pot - give it to him. The blinds at 400 mean that the smaller stacks are going to be 600 chips in over the next three hands - and unless they hit against you or mr. aggressive they are going to be down to 900 and 1400 chips. You also didnt mention how much time to the next blinds go up. This would have also been a factor.

A fold here puts you in the money. Let him have his chips, you, eventually would have had a calling hand and beat him at his own game. No shame in winning money.

[Michael Davis]

Frankly, I don't know...

I have gone through two phases on playing an absurd number of SNGs. In my first phase, I had a much better ROI. I was also making stands routinely with ragged aces against big stacks pushing their chips around, and I was taking a lot of firsts.

These days, I would have folded here. But I'm also pushing my big stack with garbage like 93o. And as a small stack, you are often close enough that doubling through makes you the new big stack.

I'm confused.

-Michael

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Not only do you let hiom do it, you fold any hand short of AK or TT doing so in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You suggest folding AQs here? 99?? Are you insane? Play for first, not 3rd. 3rd is for suckers.

[Peter Harris]

given the info here, it's the right hand to stand on. BUT with more info, it may be a fold.

Given blind raises, how the shortstacks play, how aggressive big stack will be, i may consider folding to heads up with 2000 chips. Against a bad HU player i find 2000 chips is plenty to destroy him, even at 200/400.

However, facing down ATs 4-handed against someone overtly aggressive, i may think it's the best hand by a considerable margin. It's a risk/reward thread again, and i'm not sure of the answer.

Peter Harris

[bernie]

I fold. Here's why.

You're putting yourself in a spot for a coin flip hand on the bubble. You're steal didnt work. I wouldnt put all my chips in with the blinds this high with another player shortstacked about to go through the blinds.

I want a better hand to do this with. Note if you fold, you're still in 2nd at this time. Here's how i see the chipleading overaggros in this spot. (though i like being the overaggro on bubbletime). 'Chipleading' is key part here. I can deal with him later. Once the bubble is gone, i will go after him.

Also note how he's been reacting to raises in prior hands. Some will be aggressive but will fold to any additional heat on them. If you dont know, i like to learn this by watching someone else try to do it to him.

It also matters if he is the chipleader and you are 2nd in chips. If you were the shortstack or closer, i could see moving in. When im 2nd in chips, or in good position for that matter, i dont tend to like to mess with the chipleader too much in this spot. Ive also found many times that when the guy comes back over top, they have a much better hand than ATs. There are exceptions though, but is it worth it to find out?

Youve now gone from 2nd to out of the money. How much did 3rd pay? You overrisked at least that much in calling. Probably more.

comments or thoughts welcome

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
But I'm also pushing my big stack with garbage like 93o.

[/ QUOTE ]

But are you reraising allin to a quite possible legitimate raise? Knowing your chances of being called here may be higher than if you were the initial aggressor?

b

[astroglide]

it seems that folding here (and folding into the money) goes a LONG way toward keeping me out of first place. i'm not really worried about making the money in any particular thing, i'm worried about my overall ROI.

still on the fence about this one. i was surprised that he had AJ, and also surprised that he called with it.

[BigJax]

It seems to me that you can play with some numbers to really see if you make more money, in the long run, by folding or playing this hand. Let's set up a scenario:

Assume you're playing a $10 sng, for simplicity. Assume you're always in a coin flip here, which seems reasonable giving the play thus far. If you call and win, assume that you will go on to finish 1st and 2nd in equal proportions. So, half the time you will lose and win nothing, 1/4 of the time you'll win $50, and 1/4 of the time you'll win $30. That's a net of $20 bucks, if you call.

What happens if you fold? You can be pretty sure that one of the small stacks will bust out, and you'll be in the money. And, assume that once in the money you can finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in equal proportions. So 1/3 of the time you get $20, 1/3 $30, and 1/3 $50. 1/3x20 + 1/3x30 + 1/3x50 is around $33. Clearly, you would make more, in the long run, by folding this.

You can play with the assumptions, but I was pretty kind to the 'calling' scenario (the assumption was that if you win the hand you'll always get 1st or 2nd).

After looking at it this way, I think that I would fold this hand in this situation the majority of the time, unless I had a great reason to think he had a garbage hand (and even then, I'm not a HUGE favorite).

Anybody agree with this?

[steeser]

I think this is a very good play. If one of the short stacks was a lot shorter, then I would say to fold all but premium hands. But by folding, you still have no guarantee of making the money.

Given your description of the player continually raising, it seems reasonable to try to steal this pot from him with your stack, which should be scary to him.

My one question is, did he ever show down any of those hands he was raising with? It's possible he was on a rush of good starters. If you had indeed seen him push with hands less than yours, then this is a good move.

[BigJax]

Hmm, didn't notice the short stacks were so large, since in the responses people mentioned that the 600 in blinds would cripple them lol.

[astroglide]

i think i rate to be far better than a coinflip. the chip leader had raised probably 7 of the last 10 hands uncontested. i do not expect him to have anywhere near a minimum of 99. i figured he would fold. also, i didn't call, i moved in. he only raised 1200.

[BigJax]

You're right, to be honest I didn't read that carefully. I push as well, 3 out of 4 times. It's not insignificant to lose 600 chips every round to this guy's bullying raises, and you might lose a huge part of your stack if you wait for something better than ATs. You just happened to push at the wrong time, I can't count the number of times I've finally played back at a big-stack stealer only for him to flip over TT or better.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
You're steal didnt work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Steal? What? He's in the big blind, and it was his opponent that raised.

[Beavis68]

Did anyone discuss just calling here? You will have position over him, I have been having this kinds of problems a lot lately, this close to the money, not sure I want to be pounding the chip leader with out some kind of made hand. He is going to have odds to call with almost any hand.

If he has KQ, he will probably call, and you are not that great of a favorite. We he doing a lot of stealing?

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]
still on the fence about this one. i was surprised that he had AJ, and also surprised that he called with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
You played it fine, but why does his call surprise you? I hink for him it's the easiest call ever.

[GuidoSarducci]

I would probably weigh this a little heavier in the finishing 3rd catagory, since you're going to be the short stack when you get to three handed (considering the tactic of hiding out until the short stack busts).

[BettnTibetn]

i say going all in is a bad play. Your in second place and even if he's trying to steal your blind you can just call preflop and see what happenes from there. Many players who try to steal blinds become scared when you just call the raise. He also made a good call on your all in...he could have easily thrown AJ away

[Daliman]

Not playing for 3rd, you're playing for second by doing this, and getting HU as a 3-1 DOg, while not something you want, is by no means insurmountable. The only time to worry is if he is allowing the small stacks to live, but punishing the big stacks. Again, if he calls yer allin and you have AQ, you are usually either a 58-42 fave or slight dog, with occasional Dominators. This style may be tempereed by the fact that I play for $$$ per tourney, not so much just to win, and I don't mind locking up profits as i play 500 or so of these a month, 1 is no huge deal.

[bernie]

Thanks zee for pointing out what i missed. I thought Astro raised and got reraised.

I would not have reraised allin in this situation. For many of the same reasons i stated i wouldnt call an all in in this situation.

This is not how to play on bubble time when your 2nd in chips. If he was lower in chips, maybe.

I still wouldve folded.

b

[Daliman]

The problem for the shorter stack in this case is that often the 93o type hand is getting a proper price to call here, a tactic I use often with expected results, as 930 only about 65-35 or so dog to ATs, so more than 1 time out of 3, even vs trash, you're out, whereas by playing tight and avoiding the big stack, you're almost guaranteed 3rd, and a favorite for 2nd.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably weigh this a little heavier in the finishing 3rd catagory, since you're going to be the short stack when you get to three handed

[/ QUOTE ]

He's 2nd in chips right now, the blinds are going to hit the 3rd place player. Even if he folds this, his chances of finishing 2nd are about the same. If the shortstack busts out, astro isnt the shortstack, the other guy is. He's in a better position to take at least 2nd at this point.

b

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem for the shorter stack in this case is that often the 93o type hand is getting a proper price to call here, a tactic I use often with expected results, as 930 only about 65-35 or so dog to ATs, so more than 1 time out of 3, even vs trash, you're out, whereas by playing tight and avoiding the big stack, you're almost guaranteed 3rd, and a favorite for 2nd.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMFG, I can't believe what I'm hearing. The problem with reraising is that the 93o type hand is correct to call you when you put all your chips in the middle. ATs, vs 93o, all-in preflop, and you somehow find a problem with this situation?!?!

I can hear your response now, "You want him to fold. Otherwise you will finish 4th 1/3rd of the time." Who cares? You become a GIGANTIC stack the other 2/3rds of the time.

[bernie]

In 2 rounds those stacks will have to make a move. Astro has the stack size to wait it out. The others dont. He has almost double the 3rd place guys chips. Why risk that? He can go through 2 blinds and still have more than the 3rd place guy has at this moment.

The 4th place guy really loves to see the 2 big stacks put one another all in on the bubble. It illicits a 'thank you' from me when im in 4th in this situation and this happens.

b

[astroglide]

if i were in his shoes, i would give consideration to mucking AJ to a reraise. i'd rather not flip coins with somebody that has yet to play back at me when i can fold the hand and then continue stealing.

[steeser]

I still can't believe what I'm reading, I'm sorry, but this is a perfect chance to play back at the bullying stack. I'd say you take this down without a flop 2/3 of the time, maybe more. It just so happened he had a good enough hand to call with...and even then it was a tough decision. I love the move and agree with it more the more I think about it.



People keep saying bubble time as a reason to fold, but the small stacks are nowhere near the end, and can still survive. This is a perfect chance to get some chips.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
but the small stacks are nowhere near the end,

[/ QUOTE ]

The small stack is about 7 hands away from 'having' to do something.

Yes, you can play back at him, but not at the expense of all of your chips. Especially when you have the 3rd place guy nearly doubled.

b

[Ulysses]

raiser in this flop had been raising almost every hand for a round or two.

200/400 blinds + ante.
Button (t2065)
SB (t5980)
Hero (t3865)
UTG (t1590)

If this guy is raising every hand, astro's ATs looks pretty good after two folds and a standard open-raise. I think he'll take down the pot pre-flop much of the time and gain some important chips, and the times he's called he won't be in horrible shape all that often. I'm surprised so many think this is a clear fold. At the worst, it's very close. If the other two stacks were much smaller, I might feel differently. But at this point, second place is far from assured.

[Daliman]

well, ZJ, i cant argue with yer results, nor can you with mine, so we'll just have to agree to disagree here. You seem to keep forgetting that ATs is STILL easily behind many hands, or dominated, then giving calling odds when not. Case specific, he was definitely wrong, and I'd bet the overall more profitable play is the fold. If i could run a sim on it on my Wilson Holdem, i would. Even if you do win this hand you can still go out 4th, 3rd or second. Now, if 1st were a GUARANTEE, then that changes everything.

P.S. you average only $11 per tourney when playing with me at the table, i average $38 /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[astroglide]

i would make a $1000 straight wager right now that says he had been raising hands much worse than ATs in the course of the last 3 rounds. he was both playing and raising a majority of the time. regardless of what the correct play was here, fear of domination is absolutely incorrect. i should expect to have the best hand by a mile.