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View Full Version : How often are YOU folding Pocket Aces?


JSD
05-16-2004, 07:51 PM
In about 25K limit hands so far, I have been dealt Aces 120 times.

I have folded them 7 times (5.8%) - 2 on the turn and 5 on the river. I have never folded pocket aces on the flop. The two times I folded them on the turn it was for multiple bets on a highly coordinated board. Four of the five folds on the river were for multiple bets against multiple opponents (three were flush vs. boat and one was a chop between two straights).

Only once have I ever folded Aces for a single bet. And it was heads up on the river. And it is embarrassing to watch the replay. He raised me on the turn when the flush card hit and I called. And then folded the river getting 10:1 or so. UGLY. It was in my first week of playing.

I'm currently making a little over 3BB/hand on average with the Rockets and winning 75% of the time with them. They account for a little over half of my winnings.

(If you want to see how often you are folding Aces in pokertracker, go to the General Info tab, select AA from the Known Starting Hands table and then sort the bottom table by the "Final Hand" column. Folds all begin with a parenthesis so they will be grouped together at the bottom)

illunious
05-16-2004, 08:09 PM
190 times

flop, once
turn, six
river, four

In all but one (one didn't go to showdown) I had 2, 1 or 0 outs. Every single river fold, a king high flush won.

I'm winning 2.75 BBs/hand with them, they win 66% of the time. They are less than 1/3rd of my winnings.

Chris Daddy Cool
05-16-2004, 08:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm currently making about a little over 3BB/hand on average with the Rockets and winning 75% of the time with them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean 75 percent of the time you're delt aces you win? Or 75 percent of the time you show down with them you win? The first seems a little extraordinary...

Noted Poker Authority Ed Miller once made a comment to a post I made, where he said you wouldn't be too off if you never folded AA ever under any circumstance. It's all part of the "You Guys Fold Too Damn Much in Large Pots" philosophy.

B Dids
05-16-2004, 08:24 PM
I haven't used PT since my free 1000 hands ran out (I think I'm buying it this week) but I pay attention to this one.

In several months of playing on Party I've lost with AA 3 times. Those were in a row after a long streak of being uncracked. Since then I haven't lost (I'm guessing over 30 times with AA). I think on those 3 losses I folded them once.

B Dids
05-16-2004, 08:28 PM
Do you recall what you folded them on the flop too? I'm trying to think of plausible flops that would make me fold? Best I can think is something like 678 with people screaming made straight.

illunious
05-16-2004, 08:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Do you recall what you folded them on the flop too? I'm trying to think of plausible flops that would make me fold? Best I can think is something like 678 with people screaming made straight.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually posted this hand like a week ago in response to another thread about folding KK.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Hero folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (15 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 18 BB, between SB, BB and MP2.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by MP2 (18 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB shows As Jc (flush, ace high).
BB shows Js 3c (flush, jack high).
MP2 shows 8c 8h (full house, eights full of nines).
Outcome: MP2 wins 18 BB. </font>

B Dids
05-16-2004, 08:35 PM
That was other type of flop I was thinking, but I probably woudn't fold, thinking it there's a still a good chance that they don't have the flush yet, and if it misses my hand would be good. I'd fold that turn though.

JSD
05-16-2004, 08:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Do you mean 75 percent of the time you're delt aces you win? Or 75 percent of the time you show down with them you win? The first seems a little extraordinary...


[/ QUOTE ]
The former. Apparently I've been running good with Aces so far.

illunious
05-16-2004, 08:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
That was other type of flop I was thinking, but I probably woudn't fold, thinking it there's a still a good chance that they don't have the flush yet, and if it misses my hand would be good. I'd fold that turn though.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasn't so much the flop, just the flop action that scared me. SB cold calling my raise, BB check-3 betting and MP2 capping scared the crap out of me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

sfer
05-16-2004, 08:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Noted Poker Authority Ed Miller once made a comment to a post I made, where he said you wouldn't be too off if you never folded AA ever under any circumstance. It's all part of the "You Guys Fold Too Damn Much in Large Pots" philosophy.

[/ QUOTE ]

It will be a sad day in Mudsville when reading the phrase NPAEM feels tired and old.

Peter Harris
05-16-2004, 08:51 PM
3402 hands (small sample, but i am 5 months old!)
12 times (above JSD average)
win 75%
win at showdown 80% of the time
for 4.9BB/Hand
total profit of 58.75BB (28% of my total winnings)

83.33% go to showdown, as once:
folded on the flop of J93 all spades, i have 2 red aces.

I don't honestly know how that happened. must have been a first week weak-tight moment.

Looks like my Aces will decline in BB/hand value in the coming 20,000 hands!

Peter Harris

JSD
05-16-2004, 08:55 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It will be a sad day in Mudsville when reading the phrase NPAEM feels tired and old.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder if "Noted Poker Authority" is too long to have as a Party username?

sfer
05-16-2004, 08:57 PM
264 hands. Folded 7 times. Once on the flop (I'm on the button for a monotone flop, I don't have the right A, 3 bets to me), twice on the turn, twice on the river. Twice preflop. See the dangers in multitabling kids? Talk about a buzzkill.

Winning 2.9 BBs per hand. KK, by comparison is 2.15 and QQ is 1.52. Winning 75% of the time (again, KK 66% and QQ 57%--KK cracked 4 times this weekend, grrr). Woo-hoo! I love dem bullets!

sfer
05-16-2004, 09:01 PM
That's a great idea. I'm going to open a "NPA Ed Miller" account on Intertops!

I'll only play 0.5/1 and go maniacal--every pot will be too big to fold.

LeftBack
05-16-2004, 09:10 PM
Hands: 2793
AA: 16
Folded: 2 (one regret)
Win%: 62%
BB/Hand: 2
Winnings%: 25%

120*220=26400; You're doing good.
120*16=3520; My sample is small.

It's my biggest winner, even though it's frustrating. I play it harder now, but I dump it quicker (apologies to Ed).

bakku
05-16-2004, 09:17 PM
Strangely, I've folded them only once after being dealt AA 130 times..I think I took Ed's advice a little too seriously /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Consequently, that one time I folded them was to Sublime's turn bet when a Q fell after he c/r 3-bet me on a QJ8r board. (Someone else capped Sublime's flop 3-bet)

Dieter01
05-16-2004, 09:41 PM
AA is my nemesis. Whenever I get it the first though that comes to mind is "Ohh crap! This is going to be expensive"

It is based on a very, very limited 3k hands. I have had AA 14 times. Lost 10 of them. 2 of the times I won I stole the blinds, the other two I made good money (and those two are as far as I know the only times I have stolen the blinds with EP raises... Figures!)

Anyways... On average I loose 2.01 BB/hand with the suckers. Folded 4 times. On the good side, none of my laydowns have been bad. I have just been up against more than my fair share of straights, flushes, boats and one quad when I had aces full of kings...

I cant wait for the tides to turn!

Chris Daddy Cool
05-16-2004, 09:59 PM
[ QUOTE ]
That's a great idea. I'm going to open a "NPA Ed Miller" account on Intertops!

I'll only play 0.5/1 and go maniacal--every pot will be too big to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

But would the real Ed Miller allow you to bastardize his good title with such poor play?

sublime
05-16-2004, 10:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Consequently, that one time I folded them was to Sublime's turn bet when a Q fell after he c/r 3-bet me on a QJ8r board. (Someone else capped Sublime's flop 3-bet)


[/ QUOTE ]

My check/raises are the Tony Soprano of the poker world.

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

sfer
05-17-2004, 01:11 AM
[ QUOTE ]
But would the real Ed Miller allow you to bastardize his good title with such poor play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I'll also cybersquat www.NPAEdMiller.com (http://www.NPAEdMiller.com) and make him give me royalties from his book. Since all of 2+2 will be buying I figure it'll give me enough of a roll to get spanked at the mid limits.

bakku
05-17-2004, 01:52 AM
i sure as hell was scurred

JDErickson
05-17-2004, 02:00 AM
64000 hands
AA 279 times
win% 75.27
2.82 BB/hand
PFR 99.64
Went to SD - 65.54%
Won at SD - 65.14%
Won $ When saw Flop - 74.16

Ed Miller
05-17-2004, 02:57 AM
I'll also cybersquat www.NPAEdMiller.com (http://www.NPAEdMiller.com) and make him give me royalties from his book.

Nah, too late. I've had that domain for some time... I was also once a Noted Porno Authority.

Chris Daddy Cool
05-17-2004, 04:38 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I was also once a Noted Porno Authority.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, is there anything you're not an expert in?

sfer
05-17-2004, 09:16 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I was also once a Noted Porno Authority.

[/ QUOTE ]

When is that book coming out?

bakku
05-17-2004, 09:25 AM
[ QUOTE ]
When is that book coming out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully before that other book that deals with card games or whatever comes out. It shouldn't take too long, all he needs to do is compile a bunch of pictures. I hope this isn't a book about strategically watching porno or I'm not pre-ordering.

ZootMurph
05-17-2004, 10:55 AM
The only time I fold pocket Aces is when a flush draw or a 4 card straight is on the board and multiple people are raising... I then have to assume SOMEONE has the flush/straight. Since I don't have my PT stats right now, I can't give any specific numbers, but it is rare. I do remember being over 3BB/hand with them, and 77% WinRate last time I looked.

ThrillFactor
05-17-2004, 10:57 AM
I never wanted to say anything on this board, after all Ed Miller can't be all that uncommon a name, but man was I a great fan of your work as "MajorDong" over at 6 + 9 Publishing (69smutbooks.com). Or was it "MajorShlong"? I dunno, been a long time.

Anyway, kudos man! Hard to imagine being a noted authority in two such diverse fields that hold interest for so many of us here /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Peace /images/graemlins/wink.gif

sublime
05-17-2004, 11:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i sure as hell was scurred

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I am glad it worked once, glad I got you before it became public knowledge that I have no Idea what I am talking about. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

DoctorDrew
05-17-2004, 12:11 PM
Had the same situation a few weeks ago. Folded the flop then and would do it again in a heartbeat. Caught some grief when I posted it.

MaxPower
05-17-2004, 02:41 PM
246 times, folded twice on the turn, and 4 times on the river. Winning 78% of the time and 2.7BB/hand.

Learning how to fold pocket aces is not the road to riches.

I once folded pockets aces on the flop in a live game. CrackerZack can tell you about that one.

NoChance
05-17-2004, 04:26 PM
Folded pocket black aces on the flop this weekend. I was on the button and raised. Two people called.

Flop came 236, all hearts. First guy bet. Second guy raised. I folded. Neither the turn nor the river was a heart. Just as I started kicking myself, the guy who raised the flop turnd over 54 hearts for the flopped straight flush. He was an idiot for raising in that situation IMO.

Anyway, I typed, "Glad I folded pocket Aces" which was followed by some other guy who was not involved in the hand, "Idiot". Nobody responded after that.

Zetack
05-17-2004, 07:44 PM
I haven't been using poker tracker that long.

In my last sixty six pocket Aces, I've won 83 percent of the time and have never folded em. I'm positive 3.51 BB's per AA hand.

I've tracked my won/loss with AA longer than that (but not my fold's or winning amounts) and for my last 176 AA's I've won 78.98 percent of the time (139 times).

I don't know how you guys are figuring percentage of total winnings--I don't see a winnings figure that doesn't have the red numbers figured in. You haven't manually added up all your green figures have you?

--Zetack

JSD
05-19-2004, 12:45 PM
Just picked up my 8th AA fold last night. On the river for ONE bet, no less.

I had the red ones and the final board was ALL clubs. Two opponents left. Turns out one guy had Kcxc and flopped the nuts.

Shame too, because I flopped a set of aces. Had to call two cold on the turn but had the odds to fill up. Yelling "pair the board!" at my screen had no noticable effect.

sfer
05-19-2004, 02:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Yelling "pair the board!" at my screen had no noticable effect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Young pupil, you have much to learn.

A primer for drawing out on Party (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=682992&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=)