I played a 9200000:1 shot hand today!

[1800GAMBLER]

I buy directly into the $700 buy in ladbrokes cruise ship final.

Now the chances of me entering that are about 4:1 since i was a long shot that i heard about it, plus the cruise sounds crappy and the last time i played a tournament was $50 + $5 multitables.

So around hand #10 i get AKo, So the chances of that happening are 9:1. Then an aggressive good player has 88. There are only 2 aggressive players at the table, so that's 99:1.

So preflop i decide if i hit the flop i'm going to hand him the rope. I hit the flop for two pair, ~20:1.

I check, he checks. Wow, that's rare, i'd say depending on his mood there's a 3:1 chance he'd check his 88 here.

Then the turn card was the 8. 22:1!

Then we got all in. Probability of that is 1.

So all in all, i hit a 9 200 000 shot! Anyone top that?

[jim grass]

This post will draw better attention at RGP..
ruff ruff go get em boy.
Have a good variance

jim

[Grivan]

Yeah I played a 1 in 80658175170000000000000000000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000 hand today.

It was so amazing that the deck was in exactly that order.

[ZeeJustin]

Very nice post. This basically sums up why anyone that is shocked by the outcome of a post in the probability section, does not understand much.

[1800GAMBLER]

Sorry man, you don't win.

Assume i've played poker for the last year, and averaged 5 hours a day and averaged 3 tables, at 60 hands per hour, that's ~300k hands. The chance that someone gets the same order of deck as me in the next 300k hands would be (8x10^67)^30000, so really, this year i played a 1:1 - (52!)^30000 shot. In short, if you got charged a cent to win bill gates' when you match the deck, you'd be -EV.

Anyhow, i like this hand because he shows i was pretty unlucky, even though i did put all my money in with the worst of it. I was unlucky that i was against an aggressive player, as any other player i would have bet the flop. I was unlucky the aggressive player had a pocket pair, i was unlucky he hit his set and then unlucky i didn't outdraw him. All those cases add up to me busting out in 10mins.

So i lost $740 in 10 minutes. If it had no +EV for the same price i could hire a famous celeb, or jordan capri, to do whatever i wish and she would for $4440/hour.