All in on the river with an unimprived 73o... [Archive]

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blackaces13

05-14-2004, 06:27 AM

Considering the stacks here did it make any sense for me to risk my entire tournament on this bluff? The button was extremely low and faced the BB next hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t5328)
Hero (t1862)
Button (t810)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t1000) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t1000) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t1000) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
SB checks, Hero bets t1362 (All-In), SB folds.

Final Pot: t2362
Main Pot: t1000 (t1000), won by Hero.
Pot 2: t1362 (t1362), overbet by Hero.

blackaces13

05-14-2004, 10:54 AM

samjjones

05-14-2004, 11:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Considering the stacks here did it make any sense for me to risk my entire tournament on this bluff? The button was extremely low and faced the BB next hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t5328)
Hero (t1862)
Button (t810)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t1000) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t1000) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t1000) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players) 
SB checks, Hero bets t1362 (All-In), SB folds.

Final Pot: t2362
Main Pot: t1000 (t1000), won by Hero.
Pot 2: t1362 (t1362), overbet by Hero.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks okay to me.

fnurt

05-14-2004, 11:39 AM

There's a mathematical way to answer this one...

Assume your chance of winning at any point is equal to your chip count. Then if you fold you have a 17% chance of finishing 1st, a 48% chance of finishing 2nd, and a 35% chance of finishing 3rd.

If you bluff and get away with it you have a 29.5% chance of finishing 1st, a 48% chance of finishing 2nd, and a 22.5% chance of finishing 3rd.

If you bluff and get called you obviously finish 3rd.

I don't know what the prizes are but let's assume they are 500-300-200. This gives folding a cash EV of $299. If you bluff and get away with it your EV is $336.50; if you bluff and lose your EV is $200.

So by bluffing, you are risking $99 in EV for a chance to gain $37.50. This is a good bluff if you win more than (risk/risk+reward)% of the time, which comes out to 72.5%.

So if he will call less than 27.5% of the time, it's a good bluff. Personally I think that's the case.