Best strategy for day 1 of WSOP

[M.B.E.]

Suppose it's the first hand of the WSOP main event. Stack sizes 10,000; blinds 25/50. Two limpers, you raise to 250 in the cutoff with AKo. Small blind reraises to 1300 and everyone else folds. Do you fold, call, or reraise?

[BettnTibetn]

fold

[La Brujita]

Is it an unknown opponent? Perhaps I am weak but I fold pretty quickly.

[mrbaseball]

Okay, put the shoe on the other foot.

You're on the button and cutoff raises to 250. Do you make a play and come over the top figuring he folds anything but AA?

Laying down AK for 1300 is incredibly weak.

[fnurt]

I agree that it is weak to fold, but I think the point is that you can't make a post like this without it becoming a variant on the "AA on the first hand of the WSOP" thread, where half the people say that you should never, ever get involved in a big confrontation this early in a tournament, and no one manages to convince anyone else...

[Stoneii]

I'll take on anyone preflop at any stage in any tournie for any amount of chips with AA in the hole /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that it is weak to fold, but I think the point is that you can't make a post like this without it becoming a variant on the "AA on the first hand of the WSOP" thread, where half the people say that you should never, ever get involved in a big confrontation this early in a tournament, and no one manages to convince anyone else...

[/ QUOTE ]

I must have missed that thread--are there a lot of people that actually think that way? It seems to me that anyone who says you shouldn't get involved in a big pot with AA early in a tournament only understands the first half of risk/reward.

Btw, I would never fold with AK in that spot unless I had some way of knowing my opponent would only come over the top with AA or KK. Since I don't see how I could ever know that, the decision for me would be re-raise or call and hope to hit TPTK.

[La Brujita]

Perhaps I should amplify my answer a bit. AK improves on the flop what 1/3 of the time or so? You are risking 13% of your stack. Now the main reason I asked if it was a known opponent was to try to put the player on a hand. What you need to do is try to come up with a list of probabilities for various hands he might do this with and then do a risk reward analysis. But AA, KK, QQ, JJ are the likeliest hands, and of course mathematically speaking QQ and JJ are more likely than AA and KK.

He has raised way more than the pot here. How are you going to play if rags flop? If an A flops? If a K flops?

I have read numerous accounts by top pros cautioning against overplaying AK where the money is deep and I think this a call would be an overplay.

If I had AA of course I would be happy to get my money in on the best hand, that is not my point.

Also, I don't know if things have changed with increased entrants but Sklansky says in TPFAP that the "first priority is not to go broke" in Day 1. He recommends playing solid poker and suggests a normal positive result is building the stack to the 15,000-25,000 range. Of course that does not mean turning away clearly postive ev situations, but rather avoiding close gambles and uncertain situations.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, I would never fold with AK in that spot unless I had some way of knowing my opponent would only come over the top with AA or KK. Since I don't see how I could ever know that, the decision for me would be re-raise or call and hope to hit TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]
With stacks this large, on the first hand of a six-day tourney, are you really willing to commit all your chips to TPTK?

[Philuva]

You bet $250 and are raised by another $1050, and you are thinking of calling to hit your top pair which may or may not be good when you are in no danger of going broke if you lay down the hand now?

Folding is not weak, it is just correct. Calling I think is the worse option.

[M.B.E.]

I agree that with the question as I stated it, the correct answer is to fold. It's the first hand, so you don't have a read on any of your opponents. If you had been playing an hour or two with this player and he was something of a maniac, then you would have to consider reraising allin, as long as you think there's a good chance he will fold something like 88 or 77.

But getting back to the first hand, what if the SB's reraise was only to 900? Do you still fold? I think now you can call, but still have to proceed cautiously if you flop TPTK.

[Kaz The Original]

All in. It's not close.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
You bet $250 and are raised by another $1050, and you are thinking of calling to hit your top pair which may or may not be good when you are in no danger of going broke if you lay down the hand now?

Folding is not weak, it is just correct. Calling I think is the worse option.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if your opponent has QQ, JJ, TT and you hit TPTK? What if he has AQ? What if he has crappola and is making a move because he's a pro who knows there are a lot of players who will lay down anything but AA or KK here?

My goal isn't to avoid going broke, my goal is to accumulate chips. If you are going to fold to a re-raise every time you raise with AK, you are never going to accumulate enough chips to win the tournament. I'm not saying I would never fold AK to a re-raise, but under these facts it is a very weak play.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
With stacks this large, on the first hand of a six-day tourney, are you really willing to commit all your chips to TPTK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that; I said I would raise or call. If I raise and he comes back over the top, I probably muck the hand, figuring he wouldn't risk all of his chips this early without AA or KK. If I call, I have put in about 10% of my chips with a premium hand and position; I admit it will be hard to get away from the hand if I hit the flop, but you also have to consider that if I hit the flop, I am going to be ahead the vast majority of the time.

Do you agree?

[fnurt]

If there really are a lot of people who would fold AK here, it's no wonder the pros always manage to accumulate a nice stack in the early stages.

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
If there really are a lot of people who would fold AK here, it's no wonder the pros always manage to accumulate a nice stack in the early stages.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think a top pro would risk 13% of his stack against some unknown here on a bluff? Of course he might but what is the likelihood as compared to having a real holding. I think the reasons the pros accumulate so many chips is they consistently bluff people out of small pots and win by their agression when they are not risking a significant percentage of their stack.

Regards

[BettnTibetn]

the real fact here is laying down AK to a 1300 raise is the right play. You can't reraise the 1300 because if you are facing an AA or KK your just going to lose more. If you call the 1300 you basically need to hit an A or a K b/c it is suicide to stay in the pot if A or K doesn't connect. I dont care if it's a 5 dollar tournament id lay that down.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't reraise the 1300 because if you are facing an AA or KK your just going to lose more

[/ QUOTE ]

So you always put a reraiser on AA or KK? And you always fold AK to a reraise? Which means you pretty much fold anything but AA or KK to a reraise?

We play differently /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Whitey]

[ QUOTE ]
All in. It's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

And the first person to bust out of WSOP 2004 is....

[fnurt]

Well, you'd have to ask a top pro. I do know this though. Pros raise pre-flop with a wide range of hands, many of them worse than AKo. Do you really think they give them up every time they get reraised, or even most of the time? Seems to me that's something that would get noticed and exploited. On the other hand, putting up a fight now conveys a message of strength.

The concept is to avoid gambling on this hand so you can accumulate chips with "skill" later. But what makes anyone think a top pro can't use skill on this very hand, with a holding as strong as AK, the advantage of position, and three rounds of betting still to go?

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With stacks this large, on the first hand of a six-day tourney, are you really willing to commit all your chips to TPTK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that; I said I would raise or call. If I raise and he comes back over the top, I probably muck the hand, figuring he wouldn't risk all of his chips this early without AA or KK. If I call, I have put in about 10% of my chips with a premium hand and position; I admit it will be hard to get away from the hand if I hit the flop, but you also have to consider that if I hit the flop, I am going to be ahead the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose preflop you just call the reraise to 1300. Now there's 2750 in the pot. Flop comes K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and your opponent bets the pot. Do you raise? If so, then you've committed all your chips to TPTK. Suppose you just call your opponent's flop bet. Now the turn comes 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, the pot is 8250 and your opponent bets 5950. If you call, well, that's all your chips.

Your opponent who plays this way might have K/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif so that you're still way ahead, and might even be some crazy who is making a huge move with 44. But there is also now a pretty real chance he has you beat with a set or two pair.

This is why I think it's wrong to call with AK preflop when it's reraised to 1300. Sure, you can hope your opponent is on JJ or something, and will check-fold if an A or K hits the flop, but you really can't be sure. (And if that is the case you're not getting proper odds to call preflop anyway.)

[B-Man]

You can come up with any number of doomsday scenarios, but the fact is, if I call preflop with AK, and an A or K comes on the flop, I am going to be ahead the vast majority of the time (I'm not limiting my opponent's possible holdings to premium hands, especially when it looks like I could be on a steal), and I have position on my opponent.

I don't play thinking about all the things that could go wrong; I'm thinking about how I can accumulate chips. This is a situation where I have a premium hand and position; moreover, I can easily get away from this hand if I miss the flop, and when I hit the flop I am going to be ahead the vast majority of the time.

I don't think you are crazy, I do see your point of view, I just disagree that folding is the right play.

[PlayerA]

Change the scenario from WSOP to a low buy-in tournament with same structure (stack, blinds, round length): do you still fold?

If your answer is different, why?

[Philuva]

$300 buy-in tourney last night. About 10 hands in with my starting stack of $1,000. I limp with AsKs. A joker who has already overbet a few pots, raises it to $200 with the blinds 10 and 15. Everyone folds back to me and I push. He calls with his 33.

Final board of 2d Qs Js 3h 2s. I am out.

Stop and go probably would have been better. Or maybe even folding...

[fnurt]

I don't think most players will push all-in on the turn here unless they have the goods. That said, this is still only one post-flop scenario out of many.

[Wayne]

[ QUOTE ]
My goal isn't to avoid going broke, my goal is to accumulate chips. If you are going to fold to a re-raise every time you raise with AK, you are never going to accumulate enough chips to win the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

That might be true for an online tourney, where the blinds go up every 15 minutes and your stack is less than BBx100.

At the WSOP, the blinds go up every 2 hours, and you start with BBx200 in chips. There's plenty of time for a good player to pick a better spot.

[B-Man]

I'm sure you are not suggesting that the results of one trial in a somewhat similar (but not really that similar) situation have any bearing on our hypothetical, right? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I would not have limped with your hand, though you got the result you wanted--a clown overbetting the pot. He shouldn't have called your all-in, but that is what happens on PP. It always hurts to make your hand and still lose (especially in a $300 tourney). Tough break.

[Philuva]

The situations are completely different, as you pointed out, because I knew this guy was a clown, with him over betting the pot on multiple occasions.

I just thought it was funny that an AK hand came up for me with someone making a large bet against me in the early minutes of a NL tourney the same day a post was made about it. And I went all-in rather than folding.

I actually was surprised he had a pair. I was thinking more along the lines of KT or something.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
That might be true for an online tourney, where the blinds go up every 15 minutes and your stack is less than BBx100.

At the WSOP, the blinds go up every 2 hours, and you start with BBx200 in chips. There's plenty of time for a good player to pick a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a valid point, but I am still not laying this hand down under the circumstances (if I was out of position, or knew the other player was super-tight, that might change things).

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Change the scenario from WSOP to a low buy-in tournament with same structure (stack, blinds, round length): do you still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding is still correct, but if it's an online tourney I might push in that scenario. I would not call and would not raise less than all-in. The reason for pushing has to do with maximizing my EV per unit of time. If I bust out of the low buyin tourney on the first hand I can probably find something better to do (perhaps enter another low-buyin tourney).

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is still correct, but if it's an online tourney I might push in that scenario. I would not call and would not raise less than all-in. The reason for pushing has to do with maximizing my EV per unit of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you decide to re-raise, you would really raise from 1,300 all the way to 10,000? I think that is too much--you will *only* get called by a hand that is crushing you. If you raise to about 3,500 (the highest I would go without going all-in), you will still probably get hands like JJ, TT and smaller pairs to fold, but it gives you a chance to get away from an opponent with AA or KK, because he would probably move in and, if he did, you could probably confidently muck knowing the other player hasn't put in the 4th raise (this one all-in) without a monster.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
the fact is, if I call preflop with AK, and an A or K comes on the flop, I am going to be ahead the vast majority of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that if an A or K flops, there will be a high probability you are ahead, maybe 75% or more. But when that happens, you will not get many more of your opponent's chips. The times that your opponent has you beat on an ace- or king- high flop, he will get either all your chips or a large chunk of them.

But even aside from the possibility of hitting your hand and losing, you have to consider how many chips you are putting in preflop to try to hit your hand. If you call, you are risking 1050 chips to win not much more than 1700. You'll hit your hand only a third of the time. That is not a +EV situation.

[Michael Davis]

I think it would be borderline insane to go any further with this hand.

Then again, that's why Gus Hansen is good.

If you pick your spots correctly (you need some luck), you can make a lot of money by making big reraises before the flop and stealing chips.

-Michael

[M.B.E.]

In a low buy-in tourney, most players will not fold JJ to a reraise. They might well come over the top. If you play online tourneys, I'm sure you've seen players come over the top ridiculously with 44, never mind JJ.

Getting back to the WSOP example, you can figure that on average your opponents are better than in a low-buyin tourney, but there are bound to be a lot of pretty bad players who enter and since this is the first hand you don't know whether your opponent is one of them. At this year's WSOP, your opponent might be someone who learned to play on the Travel Channel two months ago.

Aside from that, suppose you reraise to 3500 and your opponent calls. Flop comes rags and your opponent now bets 1500 into the ~7000 pot. He only has 5000 left. Now what are you going to do? Raise all-in as a bluff?

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
But even aside from the possibility of hitting your hand and losing, you have to consider how many chips you are putting in preflop to try to hit your hand. If you call, you are risking 1050 chips to win not much more than 1700. You'll hit your hand only a third of the time. That is not a +EV situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting about 1.7:1 when there is a good chance I have a coinflop (and a much smaller chance either of us is a big favorite over the other, such as him having AA, or, hopefully, AQ). When you say I will improve only about a third of the time, you are failing to consider that I have position; even if I miss the flop, my opponent may check the flop (whether his intention is to raise, fold or call my bet), and I might get a free card (or may successfully bluff). If I get to see the turn, now I am going to hit TP more than a third of the time, and I still have position.

I just don't see how this is a negative EV play. If I hit the flop, I am going to win the pot most of the time (though, as you said, I may not get any more chips from my opponent), and if I miss, I can easily fold if he bets out on the flop. I think he'll be wary of betting out without a real hand considering I previously raised, then called a re-raise, and that I have position.

Bottom line--there is more than one reasonable way to play this hand. I think we are probably going to have to agree to disagree.

[Whitey]

[ QUOTE ]
(if I was out of position, or knew the other player was super-tight, that might change things).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the crux of the problem.

You have absolutely no read on your opponent in a one off situation(well a once a year situation).

Lets say you fold this hand then an hour or so later realise that this player would only ever make such a move with AA.

How good a fold did you make earlier?

Now reverse it,you realise this player makes this move continously and the next time it happens you play accordingly and take down a big pot.

You have probably lost nothing by making the earlier fold and now have more justification for playing back at this player in the future.

This isnt weak play its good poker.

[soh538]

You also have to take in consideration your opponent, is he someone like Men the Master who can bluff you off your hand. Are they playing you or their cards? There are numerous things to think about before you lay your hand down. How is your own table image and so on?

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]

You have probably lost nothing by making the earlier fold and now have more justification for playing back at this player in the future.


[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, you raised and then folded. By definition you have not "lost nothing". Also, if he made this move with a weak ace, or with a medium pair that he would have laid down if you'd pushed, you have lost something indeed.

I'm not saying folding isn't the correct play, but to say that you have 'lost nothing' is just not accurate.

[Whitey]

I did say probably /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Legend27]

It's such an easy fold this early in the tournament. If he has something worse than AA or KK what good does it do to call his raise any way? You're 3:1 to hit on the flop and if you do hit the only way you'll get more chips from is if he has A/Q. You won't get paid off by QQ or JJ or whatever if you hit. Unless of course you both hit. Then once again you're in trouble.

[mrbaseball]

Actually I agree. I never said anywhere I wouldn't fold it myself because I am sure I would in this specific situation. It just seems weak to me but then again I have never played in a multi-day tournament. A Stars $30 I push it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think the much more interesting question should be if youre on the button on the first hand with 2 limpers and a cutoff raise of 250 do you come over the top for 1300 more with any 2?

This seems like the play to me. From the general comments and feelings in this thread it seems like pretty much anything except Aces will crumble and in some cases even the Aces will not want to risk it. If you get called or raised your out 1300 with slow blinds and deep stacks and plenty of chances to make the 1300 back. The button raise on hand one of day one seems mandatory /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If I ever played in this thing I would fold pretty much everything the first couple of rounds because the risk just isn't worth the reward.

[skaboomizzy]

I like a re-raise to about 3500 here. That should be enough to chase him out if he has a small-to-medium pair or A-paint, plus it'd leave me enough chips to still bail out of the hand if necessary.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The general rule of thumb is avoid close gambles when you think you're one of the best players in the tourney. OK. This is the main even of the WSOP. It's a given I'm *not* one of the best players in the tourney.

The only relevant question then becomes this: Is my opponent a top level player. If the answer is no, I call and see the flop (I may be able to outplay this opponent). If the answer is yes (say the reraiser is Howard Lederer), all my chips go in the middle.

[M.B.E.]

If you find yourself headsup in a pot against Howard Lederer (or some other top-flight player) on the first day, you can push preflop with any two cards. He won't call unless he has AA. Even if he suspects you might be bluffing, is he really going to risk calling all his chips with KK on day 1?

Obviously you can't do this more than two or three times, and you can't do this if he has you covered.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

My point is that unless you have a strong read that tells you your opponent would not make this play without AA or KK, folding is clearly wrong.

The fact that this is the 1st day of the WSOP main event should change *nothing* about how you play, except of course that since here you're clearly not one of the top players (as you may be in your usual NLHE multi), you now must take closer gambles than you normally would.

[M.B.E.]

The issue is not whether you are "one of the top players", it's whether you are above average (of the players remaining). On Day 1, you likely are above average, and therefore should avoid close +CEV situations that put all your chips at risk. By Day 3 or 4, you're likely no longer above average.

My example where you have AK and are reraised to 1300 is not close, in my opinion. Calling is clearly wrong, and raising to 3500 is even more wrong (because if you are called, you won't have enough chips left to play the remaining streets properly). That leaves pushing and folding; since you have no read on your opponent (and in particular do not know whether he's likely to fold hands like TT, JJ, and QQ if you push), you should fold. On the other hand, if you were pretty sure your opponent will fold even KK (although of course call with AA), then pushing becomes an attractive option.

The point that a lot of people in this thread are missing is that AKo is just not that great a hand in NLHE when the stacks are deep. Folding AKo preflop to a large reraise is in no way a "big laydown".