Was this bad play ?

[T0asty]

PP SnG down to three players. (Sorry, i don't have the HH)
Blinds 150/300

This isn't a bad beat story btw, whether i win or lose is irrelevant, i'm trying to discover if making the play in this situation is right or wrong.

Me : t3700
BB : t3400
SB : t 900

I am dealt 77 and raise to 600, SB Folds, BB Calls (after a big pause).

Flop comes 222, making me a full, the BB had been defending his blinds and usually folded to a bet on the flop.

He goes all in before i can act, from my read i knew he had nothing and was bluffing, he had 2 overcards at best. I call he turns over A,9os. Turn is a 9 making him a bigger FH and the river is an A just for a bigger kick in the balls. Now he had roughly what i thought he had and after checking i was over a 70% fav to win on the flop.

What left a bad taste in my mouth was that there wasn't much money in the pot (never go broke in an small pot) and I could have easily waited out for second place with a good chance of still coming first if I had folded.

After some analysis I thought "It was a bad play, don't do it again (in that exact situation!)" but is it ? If you knew your he had 2 overcards on that flop in this situation, is it worth calling ?

On a bet basis it's plus EV but i'm not sure how this all ties in with the SS and my chances of still coming first. Also there is the chance that he did have the other 2, or a slightly bigger pair. If I had won the hand, 1st place was almost a dead cert.

I still think that it was a bad call, but I would like to put this one to rest.

Thanks for anyone who replies, I've been lurking for about 2-3 months and this is my first post, so please . . .

be gentle /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Hood]

Also new here, so here's my limited opinion:

Good play. I'd do it every time. You should be agressive here because, as it's said so often here, it's better to get half 1st and half 3nds than all 2nds. You were the favourite on the flop to double-up. If you'd won it, you'd have pretty much won the SNG.

[tolbiny]

You want to be putting your money in this situation (if you "know" he has overcards) as a 70% favorite this is the kind of big edge you are looking for in tourneys. Also the gap between first and second is double the gap between first and third.
Ok so lets say you win this pot 70% of the time- and 85% of those times you go on to win the tourney. That gives you a 59.5% win rate after this hand. 59.5% of 50 (i am just assuming a 10$ tourney) =$29.25. you take 2nd 10.5% of the time =$3.15 and you take 3rd 30% of the time = $6. for a total ev of $38.4- this is a rough guess at your ev on this hand.
If you fold you are still not garunteed 2nd place- so lets say you take 3rd 15% of the time for $3, you take 2nd 50% of the time for $15 and 1st 35% of the time for $17.5 (again guesses but not unreasonable ones). for a total of 35.50. So you are throwing away $2.9 along with those cards if you are sure he has two overcards. in a 10$ tourney that is a 26% drop in EV for this tourney... folding is a BAD BAD play.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Personally, I don't like it. A fold here pretty much guarantees you second place and a decent shot at 1st, particularly if you take out the short stack who will have to make a move soon.

Although you have a full house, your hand is vulnerable to a lot of holdings. Any overcard held has 2 chances of hitting to beat you. In addition, the case 2 also means that any overcard beats you aswell.

Your opponent has the advantage of position on you and has used it - if you were first to act you could push-in to hopefully drive him out. However, calling his all-in bet here is, to me, a mistake. Too many random holdings can beat you and, with the short stack so far behind you in chips, you can afford to wait.

Its a tough call to make but there's too much of a risk of being counterfeited here for me which would be a lousy way to finish 3rd.

Sheriff

PS: Different story if you were up against the short stack. You'd call in a second if that were the case to try and knock him out.

[tolbiny]

i have to disagree with you sheriff-
the fact of the matter is that you really arent garuenteed second- the small stack is only 1 double up to being at 2000 chips and then you are back to a crap shoot again between where the stacks will be 3000, 3000 2000 if the big stack doubles him through, or 4000 2000 2000 if you double him through.
not only this but you are a BIG favorite to win the hand if he has 2 overcards (and this was the question)- you garentee at least 2nd place 70% of the time since you have the other big stack covered. then you are 7100-900 over the small stack and should take first place at least 75% of the time. If the BB could have just called your preflop raise with a bigger pair then it changes signifigantly, but i cant imagine folding as the chip leader and a 70-30 favorite.
im not doing it.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Your biggest mistake was the preflop limit raise. It's too easy for the BB to call with a weak to medium A or K. Make it at least 900 to go.

As for your flop call, you're a 5-2 favorite against 2 overcards. That slants a bit against you if you don't think he'd call your preflop raise with any pair lower than yours, but would with 88-TT. You can definitely fold to that bet and still have a strong chance of winning, but on the other hand, it's hard to fault your for getting all your chips in the middle when you win 70% of the time.

[fnurt]

I agree that it was very important to raise more pre-flop, particularly because you said this BB was consistently defending his blinds and then folding to a flop bet. You want to charge him more for the privilege of seeing all those flops.

Normally in 3-way situations with a short stack, it is a huge mistake for the big stacks to get involved in any kind of confrontation. Consider that before the hand, the short stack was very likely to end up in 3rd; and once both of you are all in, he becomes a pretty big favorite to finish 2nd. His cash EV just went way up, and that means someone else must have lost a lot of it.

However, in this case, I really can't fault you. The guy was willing to go all-in with 7 outs; the only reason to fold here would be if you doubted your read. Some posters seem to be implying that they would fold even if you had seen his cards; I think what they are overlooking is that the short stack is not guaranteed to bust out the instant he plays a hand. In fact if he doubles he's right back in the mix. If you're going to sit back and not get involved with anything until he busts, you might be waiting a long time. This was a great opportunity and it's very unfortunate that it didn't work out.

[Sheriff Fatman]

[ QUOTE ]
i have to disagree with you sheriff

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure many will!

However, I don't like putting myself at the mercy of 'lottery' flops such as 222 (I'd feel the same about a one suited flop where I'm not holding a card of that suit), particularly against an opponent who can cripple me when there's a desperate short stack out there.

Also, where do you draw the line in calling here? Do you make the same call with 33 or 44 when practically any hand can draw out on you?

There are 2 things that influence my decision here:
1) Short stack will have to act soon and is desperate to see a call to that bet as he gains from it regardless.
2) BB is already identified as a player who overdefends his blinds. Consequently I don't mind going into a heads up confrontation with him from behind as I give myself a good chance of beating him.

Its all a question of interpretation - a 70% chance of winning against overcards (and bear in mind we don't know for sure that's what he's holding - its just a hunch) still means that I finish 3rd almost 1/3 of the time, which is too often for me with a short stack clinging on. Against a short stack and a weak player I fancy my chances of coming out on top with the stack I have left if I fold. Sure, I'll miss out some times, but I'd prefer to try to use my 'superior' skill rather than take a chance on a 'lottery hand'.

Sheriff

[iblucky4u2]

I always thought the skill part of poker is getting the $ in the pot with better than pot odds. What type of odds do you want to make a call here? If you had KK, would you call then? By what you said, you wouldn't.

[slogger]

I honestly would have struggled with this decision if I were you, but my gut said call (FWIW, using the info you provided, I put your opponent on Ax when I was reading your hand history).

I've been taking more of an interest in these types of scenarios lately (because often you will be up against the more aggressive types at the end of a SnG), so I've been practicing determining $EV rather than chip EV.

Based on my very rough calculations (which I would not have been able to do at the table), if you were 100 percent certain that your opponent was on two overcards (specifically A9o), you should clearly call.

Assuming equal skill levels among the three remaining players, the EV for the call (assuming A9o) is about +$32.55 and the EV fold a fold is about +$25.65.

Remember that the jump from 2nd to 1st ($20) is twice as large as the jump from 3rd to 2nd ($10).

Once you're in the money in a Party SnG, I think the easy way to think about it is: where you're a clear favorite in the hand and winning it will make you a better than 90% favorite to take 1st place, you must call for all (or almost all) your chips.

[slogger]

You have to discount the buy-in in calculating the EV here. All 3 players have already gotten their buy-in back + $9 profit. They're now playing for shares of $40 in additional profit.

1st place = $30 (75%)
2nd place = $10 (25%)
3rd place = $0 (0%)

In fact, I think my calculations of EV failed to take into account the fact that they've each already made $9 in profit.

Either way, I believe the call is correct. Not sure how much, if at all, this affect the EV calculation.

[fnurt]

It seems to me that whatever's spent is already spent. If you're going to subtract out the entry fee, the vig, whatever, you might as well figure in the cost of each player's airfare to get to the tournament.

[T0asty]

Thanks for all the input people /images/graemlins/smile.gif allthough I'm still not sure on whether the play was right or not /images/graemlins/frown.gif