Three hands for comments.. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

kem

05-11-2004, 09:53 PM

I'd like to get some feedback if I can on 3 hands that I played this evening. All comments are welcome.. thanks!

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players) 
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players) 
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (7 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players) 
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB
Main Pot: 9 BB, between CO and Hero.

So I'm top pair, K kicker.. I was the aggressor all the way, never got raised. I think I'm sitting pretty good now..

> Pot won by CO (9 BB).

Results in white below: 
CO shows Jd Jh (one pair, jacks).
Hero shows Kd Th (one pair, tens).
Outcome: CO wins 9 BB. 

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players) 
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players) 
MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO folds, Button folds.

River: (9 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players) 
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB
Main Pot: 11 BB, between MP1 and Hero.

So I catch my flush on the turn, but it's a low flush. Do you raise here? Raise on the river? I was worried about facing an A-high flush, so I just called him down...

> Pot won by Hero (11 BB).

Results in white below: 
MP1 shows Kh Qd (two pair, kings and queens).
Hero shows 8d Td (flush, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins 11 BB. 

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (8 players) 
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 folds, MP3 bets, CO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players) 
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

River: (10 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players) 
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 10 BB
Main Pot: 10 BB, between MP3, CO, UTG and MP1.

Good lay down? I flopped top pair, but I was scared that I was drawing against a made flush.. Smart move, or would Ed Miller yell at me?

> Pot won by MP1 (10 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG shows Ts Jc (two pair, aces and tens).
MP1 shows 3s 3c (full house, threes full of aces).
MP3 shows Kd 9c (two pair, aces and nines).
CO shows 7d 6d (flush, ace high).
Outcome: MP1 wins 10 BB.

B Dids

05-11-2004, 09:58 PM

KTo is a trash hand, muck preflop. I know you're on the button, but I don't think you have enough callers to play this hand. (but I'm awful tight preflop when we're not talking suited aces).

T8s is not a hand you want to play for exactly the reason you couldn't bet. You hit your hand with it, and you still can't bet.

You can't lay down TP for one bet. Bad fold.

illunious

05-11-2004, 09:59 PM

Hand 1, muck preflop, I think the hand was played fine postflop

Hand 2, consider raising the flop, definitely raise the turn

Hand 3, bet the flop

kem

05-11-2004, 10:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
KTo is a trash hand, muck preflop. I know you're on the button, but I don't think you have enough callers to play this hand. (but I'm awful tight preflop when we're not talking suited aces).

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you muck all Group 6 hands, or just KTo? That does seem very tight, considering I was on the button and the table was very passive. I wasn't too worried about the blinds raising on me..

[ QUOTE ]
T8s is not a hand you want to play for exactly the reason you couldn't bet. You hit your hand with it, and you still can't bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a Group 5 hand, same as KJo, QJo, JTo, etc.. You would fold this pre-flop with no raises? I'm in MP3 with 9 players.. practically late position /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
You can't lay down TP for one bet. Bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Top pair, horrible kicker, with 3 diamonds on the board, and 3 callers in front of me? I'm not trying to argue here, just understand the logic. Okay, I call, what card am I hoping will come next? The 6 of spades or clubs? If I'm drawing against another A, those are the only 2 cards which will help me. If I call, what am I hoping for exactly?

kem

05-11-2004, 10:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1, muck preflop, I think the hand was played fine postflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you muck all Group 6 hands when on the button and no raisers? Am I playing too loose here? My VP$IP% is like 23%, which seems about normal for a 2+2'er..

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2, consider raising the flop, definitely raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Do I fold to a re-raise, or just call it down? This guy seemed convinced that his 2 pair was good, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had re-raised. Do you cap a 3-bet?

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 3, bet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet the flop with a possible flush and weak kicker? What do you do when raised? As it turned out, one guy flopped a set, another a flush, so I'm behind 2 guys here. I probably get raised. What do you do next?

B Dids

05-11-2004, 10:36 PM

I don't really think in hand groups any more, more just my feeling on individual hands. In general I don't play below group 4 save suited aces and the occasional well placed suited connectors. I don't think playing KTo from this spot is really a bad move, but it's not something I do (that said, I can't recall the last time I've had it on the button, and any time you're on the button it's a very situational call).

I think the hand groups fail in terms of ranking that hand on the same level as the other ones you note. That said- I don't play those hands either. (save KJ)

I think you're hoping for a non-diamond. I don't know if I go crazy raising, but I call. What do those callers have? Aces, diamonds? If they've got diamonds, what are the chances that somebody hasn't made their flush.

illunious

05-11-2004, 10:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you muck all Group 6 hands, or just KTo? That does seem very tight, considering I was on the button and the table was very passive. I wasn't too worried about the blinds raising on me..

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise this hand first in in late position or after one limper. It plays terribly in a multi-way pot.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you muck all Group 6 hands when on the button and no raisers? Am I playing too loose here? My VP$IP% is like 23%, which seems about normal for a 2+2'er..

[/ QUOTE ]

Like B Dids, I no longer think in terms of groups. I don't like KTo here because it's a multiway pot, there are other group 6 hands that are great here.

[ QUOTE ]
This is a Group 5 hand, same as KJo, QJo, JTo, etc.. You would fold this pre-flop with no raises? I'm in MP3 with 9 players.. practically late position

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the T8s sometimes. I usually fold here preflop, but calling on a loose/passive table after a couple limpers isn't that bad in my opinion. When you do play it, you need to extract maximum value after you hit a flush or straight, which you did not.

[ QUOTE ]
Do I fold to a re-raise, or just call it down? This guy seemed convinced that his 2 pair was good, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had re-raised. Do you cap a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would probably cap the turn and just call the river if he keeps betting.

[ QUOTE ]
Top pair, horrible kicker, with 3 diamonds on the board, and 3 callers in front of me? I'm not trying to argue here, just understand the logic. Okay, I call, what card am I hoping will come next? The 6 of spades or clubs? If I'm drawing against another A, those are the only 2 cards which will help me. If I call, what am I hoping for exactly?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you would be much better off betting the flop and seeing what happens. Just because you bet the flop doesn't mean you have to even see the turn.

sfer

05-11-2004, 10:51 PM

Hand 1: Bummer. I'll play it on the button if I feel saucy. Anyway, no reason to stop betting. Bummer.

Hand 2: I don't like being second in, two off the button, with a suited 1-gapper. I want to be at least in the CO and with 3 callers in front of me, or near 100% certainty that both blinds are tagging along. When it is raised behind you on the flop and comes back around, 3-bet. Jam that baby. Your flush is low but it's probably the best hand. Raise. Also, this is far less important, but you want to protect it a bit in case an A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is hanging around. Besides, they'll call 2 bets not, but now on the river if they miss.

Hand 3: Bet the flop.

RcrdBoy

05-11-2004, 10:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you muck all Group 6 hands, or just KTo?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a Group 5 hand, same as KJo, QJo, JTo, etc..

[/ QUOTE ]

It's more important to know how hands play than their specific groupings. You have to know why T8s is a totally different hand than KJo even though they may be grouped together.

My feedback wouldn't be much different than what you've gotten so far.

Keep reading and posting hands because there is some really great advice out there.

-Mike

kem

05-11-2004, 10:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really think in hand groups any more, more just my feeling on individual hands. In general I don't play below group 4 save suited aces and the occasional well placed suited connectors. I don't think playing KTo from this spot is really a bad move, but it's not something I do (that said, I can't recall the last time I've had it on the button, and any time you're on the button it's a very situational call).

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're on the button, 2 limpers to you, you have 77, you fold?

[ QUOTE ]
I think the hand groups fail in terms of ranking that hand on the same level as the other ones you note. That said- I don't play those hands either. (save KJ)

[/ QUOTE ]

Even in a loose passive game, in late position? I realize that the playability of KTo seems to be a religious debate, so I'm probably just digging a hole here and should drop it..

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're hoping for a non-diamond. I don't know if I go crazy raising, but I call. What do those callers have? Aces, diamonds? If they've got diamonds, what are the chances that somebody hasn't made their flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's exactly what I'm worried about -- Aces and diamonds. 8 players saw the flop. What are the odds that none of them have diamonds? Remember, I called this from UTG+2, then had 4 callers behind me + the 2 blinds. A lot of people in this pot, and I've got 4 people acting behind me on the flop. Unless the best they have is A-rag, I'm behind and acting early. By the time the betting gets back to me, the blinds have folded, making me 2nd to act after the turn and river. How long do you stay in this hand?

kem

05-11-2004, 11:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: I don't like being second in, two off the button, with a suited 1-gapper. I want to be at least in the CO and with 3 callers in front of me, or near 100% certainty that both blinds are tagging along. When it is raised behind you on the flop and comes back around, 3-bet. Jam that baby. Your flush is low but it's probably the best hand. Raise. Also, this is far less important, but you want to protect it a bit in case an A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is hanging around. Besides, they'll call 2 bets not, but now on the river if they miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right about 3-betting the flop.. should have done that. What do you do on the turn when you hit the flush? This guy was pretty happy with his 2-pair, so I'd imagine he's raising. Do you cap? Should I be worried about facing a higher flush?

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 3: Bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I bet the flop, I get raised, what do I do? Fold? Re-raise? My hand isn't that great, and there's an excellent chance that diamonds are out there. How far do you take a pair of aces with a 6 kicker?

sfer

05-11-2004, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're right about 3-betting the flop.. should have done that. What do you do on the turn when you hit the flush? This guy was pretty happy with his 2-pair, so I'd imagine he's raising. Do you cap? Should I be worried about facing a higher flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

3-bet the turn. If he caps, it's ruh-roh time. Generally, don't worry about having a smaller flush on a 3-flush board (same with having an underset, don't worry) until you face heavy turn action.

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I bet the flop, I get raised, what do I do? Fold? Re-raise? My hand isn't that great, and there's an excellent chance that diamonds are out there. How far do you take a pair of aces with a 6 kicker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who's raising? I LAG? Anyone coldcall? Coldcalls would concern me as much as a raise. But generally, I'll dump to a raise. You bet because it's highly possible that no one likes the monotone flop and you have TP.

B Dids

05-11-2004, 11:09 PM

Pocket pairs have the special exception. The value of spiking a set is huge.

A- KTo is an old bad joke for me. There's some hands that I've played badly with it that I've posted here.

B- Late position is really situational to me. Depends a lot on my reads. But yeah- save KJo I don't play those hands outside of the blinds.

A lot of them might have A diamond. If a lot of them have A diamond that means it's unlikely that they'll actually get there. Yes, you have to fear aces, which is why you have to bet this to see where you are.

kem

05-11-2004, 11:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Who's raising? I LAG? Anyone coldcall? Coldcalls would concern me as much as a raise. But generally, I'll dump to a raise. You bet because it's highly possible that no one likes the monotone flop and you have TP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm starting to think maybe I shouldn't have been in this hand to start with. Would you play A6s from UTG+2? To me, this was more of a stretch than the KTo on the button.. And I would definitely bet this if the flope hadn't been monotone. I could handle 2 diamonds even, but not 3..

I'm too tired to crunch the numbers, but 8 callers, monotone flop, what are the odds that no one likes it? Pretty slim..

kem

05-11-2004, 11:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pocket pairs have the special exception. The value of spiking a set is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, sorry, don't mean to be an @ss or anything, but you've said that you only play below group 4 with suited aces, the occasional well placed suited connectors, pocket pairs, and KJ? So you're excluding suited one-off-connectors (Q9s, T8s, 97s), off-suited connectors like QJ, JT, and then hands like AT, KT, QT? Even on the button in a loose game?

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of them might have A diamond. If a lot of them have A diamond that means it's unlikely that they'll actually get there. Yes, you have to fear aces, which is why you have to bet this to see where you are.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I bet strictly for information here? Didn't I accomplish the same thing by checking? I check, someone bets, 2 callers in front of me.. that's 3 people willing to pay more money after seeing the flop (and one more acting after me). Do I think that I'm 20% to win this pot at this point? With the beauty of hand histories and twodimes, I can actually say that I was 1.35% to win this pot after the flop.

illunious

05-11-2004, 11:35 PM

Kem, you are asking the right questions. It is very hard to give advice on hypothetical questions because it always depends on what happens next.

In hands 2 and 3 the popular suggestion is to take the lead on the flop. Any number of things can happen on later streets and it's very hard to guess what your opponents will do.

In general, I advise raising a couple more times in hand 2 and taking the lead in hand 3 until told otherwise. Being results oriented you would have won more in #2 and lost more in #3, but I think this advice will yield profits in the long run.

As a side note, there have been times where I played #3 the exact same way as you did.

kem

05-11-2004, 11:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So I bet strictly for information here? Didn't I accomplish the same thing by checking? I check, someone bets, 2 callers in front of me.. that's 3 people willing to pay more money after seeing the flop (and one more acting after me). Do I think that I'm 20% to win this pot at this point? With the beauty of hand histories and twodimes, I can actually say that I was 1.35% to win this pot after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I'm running some simulations on that hand. I fix my hand and the flop, put in 8 callers. Give one caller the 7d, another caller an ace, all other callers' cards are randomly generated. My odds of winning are ~4%.. I give that other ace a better kicker than me, it drops to around 3%. Against a made flush and all other callers have random cards, I'm 2%. I think this is a good fold. Unless everyone is bluffing, I am well behind in this hand.

kem

05-11-2004, 11:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In hands 2 and 3 the popular suggestion is to take the lead on the flop. Any number of things can happen on later streets and it's very hard to guess what your opponents will do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I (perhaps playing scared) thought my flush might be second rate on hand 2. This could have been because I had been on the receiving ends of some bad beats at that table and was expecting more of the same. I think if I had been coming off a winning streak, I would have (correctly) played it more aggressively and gotten a few more bets out of my opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
As a side note, there have been times where I played #3 the exact same way as you did.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually going to stand by that decision to fold. I'm running simulations here, and if I assume I'm up against another ace and/or some diamonds, I am nill to win this hand. With so many callers seeing the flop, I am not in a good situation. I think with that hand and 8 callers, I need to see hearts on the flop to make it pay off..

illunious

05-12-2004, 12:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm actually going to stand by that decision to fold. I'm running simulations here, and if I assume I'm up against another ace and/or some diamonds, I am nill to win this hand. With so many callers seeing the flop, I am not in a good situation. I think with that hand and 8 callers, I need to see hearts on the flop to make it pay off..

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what simulations you are using. I will normally bet the flop because I feel I have the best hand. I am also confident that I will be able to fold the hand in some situations and continue betting in other situations. If you are not comfortable taking the lead in the hand, check-folding is without a doubt a +EV play.

flexus

05-12-2004, 12:57 AM

hand 1: fold preflop, otherwise fine

hand 2: fold preflop. Why did you play your draw if all you were going to do when you hit is was calling it down?
You might overcall the turn to lure the other players in, but its prolly best to raise to make them pay to draw to a higher flush. Raise the river. You will have the best hand way more often than not.

hand 3: some players probably considers this a weak laydown, and it is true that if you are going to play AXs from EP ypu cant just dump it when an ace flops. In this situation, against that many players and possibility of a made flush already, I think the laydown is fine.

B Dids

05-12-2004, 01:05 AM

"Okay, sorry, don't mean to be an @ss or anything, but you've said that you only play below group 4 with suited aces, the occasional well placed suited connectors, pocket pairs, and KJ? So you're excluding suited one-off-connectors (Q9s, T8s, 97s), off-suited connectors like QJ, JT, and then hands like AT, KT, QT? Even on the button in a loose game?"

First off, good questions, I'm still learning too, so I don't profess to have all the answers. Here's my thoughts. KJ and AT are more likely to make TPGK than other hands. There's a huge value to sets and suited aces when they make their hands. Maybe I should be playing some of those lower hands in late position, but I don't feel like my game is suffering for want of playing those hands.

When I first started, I tired to play with my hard card open at all times. Eventually I stopped using it, and just starting looking at each had in each situation. And often times, I'm still making incorrect plays. Still, with the help of the books, and this forum, I'm doing very well. Best you can do is play your game, and then get feedback so that you can get better.

"So I bet strictly for information here? Didn't I accomplish the same thing by checking?"

If you're raised, you can be reasonably sure that somebody is holding a hand that beats you. I agree that this is a really hard hand to play. While part of me knows that raisign is probably the best play- I just call it down.

Shalara

05-12-2004, 02:47 AM

Hand One: I fold KTo preflop, unless I'm in the small blind. That being said, I think you played it the best you could. Good job all streets. I would expect to see CO turn over tens with a wobbly kicker from the way he played. I was quite surprised by the results.

Hand Two: I don't like the call pre-flop myself. A suited connector is okay, but dropping down to a one-gap doesn't look as good. My reasoning is a suited connector can make a flush or straight, and with a one-gap, you're really only shooting for a flush. Maybe that's just me though.

I'd call the flop, like you did. I'd raise the turn though. Maybe there's a higher one. Maybe not--the guy could have flopped top pair, two pair, or a straight even. Lots of hands that might still bet into that flop. If re-raised, I'd just call though. River play dependant on turn play.

Hand Three: I would either raise or fold here. Probably fold, but I did raise a hand kind of like this today. If you're going to play it, you need to put pressure on people drawing for another diamond. And hope everyone folds /images/graemlins/grin.gif If you're going to fold, good. That's the better choice with that many people in, imo. If the kicker was good, though, say J or higher, I'd be raising like crazy.

sfer

05-12-2004, 09:13 AM

I'd rather limp with A6s than T8s or KTo at a loose/passive table.

3 flush cards on the board does not necessarily mean you're up against a made flush. A good quality of that flop is that you can pretty safely fold if someone raises into a field.

Ed Miller

05-12-2004, 09:52 AM

Hand 1 you played fine. That happens sometimes. Generally, if you have a pretty good hand, and they never raise you, keep on betting. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Hand 2 you misplayed. You missed three key concepts:

1. You have a big draw on the flop. You have a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. That gives you twelve outs twice (granted your gutshot uses only the ten from your hand, so it isn't as strong as if it used both cards). Twelve out draws come in 45% of the time by the river. You have three opponents (so you put in only 25% of the money), and you are going to make your hand 45% of the time.

Your first flop call is ok because the bet comes from your right (so a raise would eliminate players), but after three people call, instead of calling to close the action you should 3-bet. You make money on every additional flop bet.

2. You should raise the turn. Your flush is small (but not tiny... after all, there are only three cards bigger than your ten) which makes it vulnerable to a fourth diamond on the river. You should raise to put pressure on someone with the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (obviously anyone with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif will call no matter what you do). But your raise could be the difference between winning and losing if someone has the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif behind you. Also, it gets more money in the pot when you almost certainly have the best hand.

3. You ABSOLUTELY should raise the river. Not raising the river is just plain playing scared. It's damn hard to have a bigger flush than yours. Think of the ENTIRE RANGE of hands he could have. A bigger flush than yours is NO MORE than 10% of that range... he could have one pair, two pair, trips, a straight, a smaller flush, etc. A raise is profitable (assuming your opponent will always call your raise) if your hand is better than 2/3 of the hands he could have. That is, you make one bet when you have a better hand, and you lose two bets when he has the better hand (because he will reraise and you will call). So you lay 2-to-1 that your hand is better. But when your hand is best 90% of the time, you ABSOLUTELY to should lay 2-to-1 that you have the best hand.

You make the same mistake in the next hand... you irrationally fear hands that are underdogs to be out.

Hand 3. Well, your fold isn't terrible on the "don't fold so damn much" scale, but I would have called. The real problem with this hand is that 35% of the time by the river, a fourth diamond will appear and you will be toast for sure. So that means that you only have a chance to win 65% of the time... and you certainly aren't a guaranteed winner.

Someone could have a made flush, but even with six opponents or so, it is an underdog to be out. I don't know exactly, but I'd guess based on experience that someone will have a flush maybe 25-35% of the time. With an option to call for one bet almost closing the action, I'd toss in the bet and see what the turn is. If it's a diamond, you turbo muck. If it isn't, watch the action to help you decide whether your hand is still best.

BTW, all your preflop plays were fine.

kem

05-12-2004, 10:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what simulations you are using. I will normally bet the flop because I feel I have the best hand. I am also confident that I will be able to fold the hand in some situations and continue betting in other situations. If you are not comfortable taking the lead in the hand, check-folding is without a doubt a +EV play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was using Poki's Poker Academy (from the U of Alberta poker group) for the simulations. You can fix cards to certain values, and allow the others to be randomly drawn from the remaining deck. Then you can enumerate through the possibility, or simulate X number if there are too many to enumerate. It will then tell you the % of hands where you have the best hand by the river. So it's assuming everyone stays in through the river, but even so, the %'s I was getting out made me a huge huge underdog.

kem

05-12-2004, 10:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand Two: I don't like the call pre-flop myself. A suited connector is okay, but dropping down to a one-gap doesn't look as good. My reasoning is a suited connector can make a flush or straight, and with a one-gap, you're really only shooting for a flush. Maybe that's just me though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't suited one-off-connectors make a straight 3 ways, and connectors 4? Not a huge difference, and I did actually draw both a gut shot and a flush draw.. I would have probably mucked in a more aggressive table, but this one was pretty passive..

Ed Miller

05-12-2004, 10:22 AM

Can't suited one-off-connectors make a straight 3 ways, and connectors 4? Not a huge difference, and I did actually draw both a gut shot and a flush draw.. I would have probably mucked in a more aggressive table, but this one was pretty passive..

Actually, it is a big difference. After all, how big do you think your edge IS with a marginal hand like T8s? Cutting your straight chances by 25% is not helpful. Also, it's not just how many ways you can make a straight, but also what sort of draws you can flop.

With a no-gapper (e.g., T9), you can flop an open-ended draw three ways (QJ, J8, 87), and a gutshot six ways (KQ, KJ, Q8, J7, 86, 76).

With a one-gapper (e.g., T8), you can flop an open-ended draw two ways (J9, 97), and a gutshot five ways (QJ, Q9, J7, 96, 76).

So not only does T9 make a straight by the river more often, but it also flops a stronger draw more often.

But, T8s is right about where the edge of profitable hands is where you limped with it. I'd definitely play T9s, and I wouldn't play J8s. I also wouldn't play 86s. Either way, don't sweat it. The call is not terrible... if it is unprofitable, it's only unprofitable by a few cents.

Focus on your post-flop play, not your preflop play. As long as you play reasonably tightly, the real money is won and lost after the flop. That goes for EVERYONE in this thread and on this board. Preflop play is all everyone seems to want to talk about. The funny thing is, when I first read your thread, I knew that the big debate would be about playing KTo and T8s. It's funny because those are the LEAST IMPORTANT decisions from the whole set of hands. Stop worrying about trivial stuff, guys.

kem

05-12-2004, 10:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 you misplayed. You missed three key concepts:
<snip><snip>

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I completely agree, I was playing way too scared. I should have been raising the turn and river.. I definitely wasn't thinking there.

[ QUOTE ]
You make the same mistake in the next hand... you irrationally fear hands that are underdogs to be out.

Hand 3. Well, your fold isn't terrible on the "don't fold so damn much" scale, but I would have called. The real problem with this hand is that 35% of the time by the river, a fourth diamond will appear and you will be toast for sure. So that means that you only have a chance to win 65% of the time... and you certainly aren't a guaranteed winner.

Someone could have a made flush, but even with six opponents or so, it is an underdog to be out. I don't know exactly, but I'd guess based on experience that someone will have a flush maybe 25-35% of the time. With an option to call for one bet almost closing the action, I'd toss in the bet and see what the turn is. If it's a diamond, you turbo muck. If it isn't, watch the action to help you decide whether your hand is still best.

[/ QUOTE ]

So there's a 45% chance that by the river someone with a single diamond has made the flush, and you estimate a 25-35% chance that someone already has a flush. I tie another A6, beat A5, A4, and A2, but lose to all other aces (A3 is two pair). So if I'm facing another Ax, I'm probably behind 2/3 of the time.. Doesn't all of that add up to make me a huge underdog?

Assume I bet the flop, get callers and no raiser, a blank comes on the turn. I bet again, this time I'm raised, do you fold here? Or do you check and fold to a bettor? If I'm very carefully watching action on the turn when a blank falls, then I probably am thinking I'm behind, which is what I thought on the flop (and why I folded).

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, all your preflop plays were fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I'm glad someone thinks so /images/graemlins/smile.gif I was getting killed here for limping in with KTo on the button.. you'd think i was playing ace-rag UTG or something..

Ed Miller

05-12-2004, 10:49 AM

So there's a 45% chance that by the river someone with a single diamond has made the flush, and you estimate a 25-35% chance that someone already has a flush. I tie another A6, beat A5, A4, and A2, but lose to all other aces (A3 is two pair). So if I'm facing another Ax, I'm probably behind 2/3 of the time.. Doesn't all of that add up to make me a huge underdog?

First of all, it's more like a 35% chance than 45% that a fourth diamond comes. Second, yup, you are an underdog. Fortunately, the pot lays you like 11-to-1 or something. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif I'm not telling you to call down no matter what. I'm telling you to make one small flop call to see another card and gauge the turn action. Third, there you are again assuming that the worst hands are out against you. You seem convinced that someone else has an ace. Why? In fact, no one else DID have an ace, correct? Someone flopped a set, but no one had an ace. If you knew someone had a bigger ace, you'd fold. BUT YOU DON'T KNOW THAT, AND YOU CANNOT PROFITABLY ASSUME IT EITHER.

Assume I bet the flop, get callers and no raiser, a blank comes on the turn. I bet again, this time I'm raised, do you fold here? Or do you check and fold to a bettor? If I'm very carefully watching action on the turn when a blank falls, then I probably am thinking I'm behind, which is what I thought on the flop (and why I folded).

Who said anything about betting? I like your check, but when it is called back to you and you can call almost closing the action, I'd do so. A six could slide off, or the turn action could lead you to believe that you have the best hand.

kem

05-12-2004, 11:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, it's more like a 35% chance than 45% that a fourth diamond comes. Second, yup, you are an underdog. Fortunately, the pot lays you like 11-to-1 or something. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif I'm not telling you to call down no matter what. I'm telling you to make one small flop call to see another card and gauge the turn action. Third, there you are again assuming that the worst hands are out against you. You seem convinced that someone else has an ace. Why? In fact, no one else DID have an ace, correct? Someone flopped a set, but no one had an ace. If you knew someone had a bigger ace, you'd fold. BUT YOU DON'T KNOW THAT, AND YOU CANNOT PROFITABLY ASSUME IT EITHER.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, 35%, it would help me calculate odds properly if I could subtract.. True, no one called the river with an ace, but it might have been out there and folded like I did. I wasn't necessarily assuming someone had a higher ace, but I was factoring it into my assessment of the situation. If the flop had been A93 rainbow, I would have bet it out to see where I stood, thinking there was a good chance I was ahead. The monotone board added enough to my doubts that I checked to see who would bet/call.. based on the people who seemed to like it, I thought I was too behind to call.

[ QUOTE ]
Who said anything about betting? I like your check, but when it is called back to you and you can call almost closing the action, I'd do so. A six could slide off, or the turn action could lead you to believe that you have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, you didn't say to bet. I was thinking of the other replies to this thread which said to bet it out. A six sliding off (not the 6 of diamonds though) would be nice, but still possibly facing a made flush.. Maybe I'm playing really scared though..

kem

05-12-2004, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, it is a big difference. After all, how big do you think your edge IS with a marginal hand like T8s? Cutting your straight chances by 25% is not helpful. Also, it's not just how many ways you can make a straight, but also what sort of draws you can flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't you make the counter argument that a straight made with T8s will get more action than a straight with connectors? If I'm holding T8, my opponent has AQ, flop comes QJ9, wouldn't I see more action than if I'm holding T9 and the flop comes QJ8?

[ QUOTE ]
So not only does T9 make a straight by the river more often, but it also flops a stronger draw more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

The two are not independent, no? Connectors make straights in more way, and therefore have more draws.. This might be offset slightly by the fact that your opponents fear a board with a straight made from connectors more than a board with a straight made by one-off-connectors. Or am I totally off-base here?

[ QUOTE ]
Focus on your post-flop play, not your preflop play. As long as you play reasonably tightly, the real money is won and lost after the flop. That goes for EVERYONE in this thread and on this board. Preflop play is all everyone seems to want to talk about. The funny thing is, when I first read your thread, I knew that the big debate would be about playing KTo and T8s. It's funny because those are the LEAST IMPORTANT decisions from the whole set of hands. Stop worrying about trivial stuff, guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting, because I would have thought the opposite. Let me tell you my logic real quick. I'm new to this board (and poker), but it seems like a lot of 2+2'ers boast +EV.. everyone seems to get +1-2BB/100 at least, yet you get very different advice from people on how to play the same hand. So everyone is playing differently, yet so many people are winning.

Think of a variation on a hold 'em game, in which there is only 1 round of betting, and it's after the river. So dealer deals everyone 2 cards, face down, then the flop, turn, river, then everyone bets. Take a +EV player from 2+2, stick him in this game against his normal opponents. Does his EV go up, or down? Forget rake here, assume a zero sum game. I say it goes down. Everyone instantly knows their hand, there are no draws, etc, much easier to calculate odds, see where you stand, etc, etc. Now back it up, have 2 rounds, where does EV go? Now have 3, then 4. Where does the 2+2'er get the most EV? I (perhaps wrongly) think it's pre-flop. Seems like at party, around 45% of people see the flop. Everyone plays ace-rag from anywhere. Contrast this to the ~20% VP$IP% of 2+2'ers and the selection of hands they play. Seems like this is where most of the value comes from.. that's my initial assessment at least, but I reserve the right to be completely wrong.

Ed Miller

05-12-2004, 11:25 AM

Just to be clear, this call is close to the border, IMO. Your situation isn't good... you have a made hand that is difficult to improve, and you KNOW that EVEN IF you have the best hand, a bunch of people can easily draw out.

The only reason I suggest you call is:

1. There is significant money in the pot.
2. You almost close the action. If you had a reasonable risk of it being raised behind you, I'd suggest you fold. It's only because you are almost sure to see the turn card and action for one small bet that I suggest a call. This is a "toss the money in and hope things go your way" call. But I think things will go your way often enough for it to show a modest profit.

You also have the right idea when you say that the monotone board changed your strategy. That is totally correct. In fact, you got the important concept out of this hand... when the board flops monotone, and you do not have one of the suit, you should often play top pair cautiously on the flop. Versus a rainbow board, the chance you are behind has increased, and the chance you will be drawn out on has skyrocketed.

Ed Miller

05-12-2004, 11:36 AM

Couldn't you make the counter argument that a straight made with T8s will get more action than a straight with connectors? If I'm holding T8, my opponent has AQ, flop comes QJ9, wouldn't I see more action than if I'm holding T9 and the flop comes QJ8?

The opposite is true. If you have AQ, you have significantly more to fear from a QJ9 board than a QJ8 board. Not only can two hands have made straights on the QJ9 board (KT and T8), but anyone with a T has an open-ended draw, and anyone with a K or 8 has a gutshot. On the QJ8 board, only T9 is a made straight, and people with T's or 9's only have gutshots.

The two are not independent, no? Connectors make straights in more way, and therefore have more draws.

Of course they aren't independent, but my point was to show that one-gaps make 25% fewer straights, but 33% fewer open-ended draws. I didn't draw enough attention to that b/c I included the gutshots. Open-ended draws have more than double the value of gutshots (all other things being equal) because the action will almost never force you to fold an open-eded draw, where it will often force you to fold a gutshot.

There is no question that the most important first step for a poker player to make is to tighten up his starting requirements. You can gain an edge in small games simply by playing tightly.

My point is that ONCE YOU ALREADY PLAY TIGHTLY, these marginal cases mean very little. As long as you play otherwise reasonably, it doesn't much matter whether you limp or fold KTo on the button or T8s in MP. It matters a lot if you call raises with K4o, but the marginal cases are arguing over pennies.

The mistakes you made playing your draw in hand 2 are very significant. They cost you lots of money... far more than limping on the button with KTo will ever cost you. The fact that most of the people go straight for the marginal preflop plays tells me that they do not fully understand exactly where the money comes from.

kem

05-12-2004, 12:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The opposite is true. If you have AQ, you have significantly more to fear from a QJ9 board than a QJ8 board. Not only can two hands have made straights on the QJ9 board (KT and T8), but anyone with a T has an open-ended draw, and anyone with a K or 8 has a gutshot. On the QJ8 board, only T9 is a made straight, and people with T's or 9's only have gutshots.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I picked a bad example.. How about Q98 and you're holding JT? Since connectors are valued higher than one-off-connectors, it seems logical that people would play them more. Therefore you would fear a straight more when the board allows a straight made with connectors than a straight made with one-off cards. Aren't these safe assumptions?

[ QUOTE ]
The mistakes you made playing your draw in hand 2 are very significant. They cost you lots of money... far more than limping on the button with KTo will ever cost you. The fact that most of the people go straight for the marginal preflop plays tells me that they do not fully understand exactly where the money comes from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree here.. I should have gotten another 2-3BB out of my opponent when I made that flush.. Definitely key mistakes.

adanthar

05-12-2004, 12:32 PM

The only thing I have to add to that fantastic post:

Look at the CO's play in Hand 3. He had the best hand on the flop and turn and had a greater than 50% chance of winning before the river even with the horribly passive set out. How many small bets did he cost himself by failing to bet the best hand? If MP1 stays that passive, only about 6-8 by my count- which is 2 less than what you cost yourself on your own flush by not 3 betting the flop and raising the turn. (MP1 is the real winner here, though, because I tried to figure it out and lost count after 20 something.)

PS: Q98 is a special case because everybody at Party plays JTo from every position and if I get raised on that board I start thinking about it. In any case, however, if you flop 33% less draws with a one gapper, you have to get 33% more action to make up for it, which is likely to be impossible no matter what the board looks like.