whats prob of a suited connector floppin a flush or str8 draw

[Doctaprofit]

I believe its 1 to 6 to flop either... not sure if this is correct but if it is that would tell me u need 1 to 5 odds on the flop to justifiy a call

[easypete]

I'm going to take a stab at this(probably wrong).

Assuming 87s for this hand.

Note: AKs, KQs, A2s, and 32s will have less possible straight draws.

Flush draw:
11 cards remaining --> C(11,2)*39 (non-flush cards)
2145 possible combinations.

Straight Draw:
T9 (not same suit as hole cards): 3*3*44 = 396 combinations.
96 (""): 396 comb's.
65 (""): 396 comb's.
Total: 1188.

Gutshots:
JT (not same suit as hole cards): 396 comb's.
J9 (""): 396 comb's
64 (""): 396 comb's
54 (""): 396 comb's.
Total: 1584

For a flush draw or a OESD: 3333/C(50,3) = 17%

For a flush draw or a OESD or a Gutshot: 4917/C(50,3) = 25%

Does this seem right?

For AKs:

Flush Draw:
Same as above = 2145 comb's.

OESD:
0

Gutshots:
QJ: 396
JT: 396
QT: 396

For a flush draw or a OESD: 2145/C(50,3) = 11%

For a flush draw or a Gutshot: 3333/C(50,3) = 17%

Am I close?

[Lost Wages]

A good start.

Hints:
There is no reason that one of his straight draw cards can't be in his suit.
87s can flop 6 gutshots not 4.
It can also flop 2 eight out double gutshots.

There are 4 cases for connectors:
1) 54 thru JT (max stretch)
2) 43 & QJ
3) 32 & KQ
4) A2 & AK

Lost Wages

[BruceZ]

19.1% or 4.2-to-1 for a maximally suited connector (like JTs). See this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=355216&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1) where the answer is arrived at different ways.

[Doctaprofit]

okay so what odds do i need to play which connectors profitably.. preflop... im thiking 5 to 1

[PairTheBoard]

That 4.2-1 does not include one card gut shot draws?

PairTheBoard

[BruceZ]

That 4.2-1 does not include one card gut shot draws?

That's correct.

[PairTheBoard]

Thanks Bruce. And just to be perfectly clear the 4.2-1 does not include flopped straights and flushes either? I'm guessing with those included the odds are slightly better than 4-1?

Makes me want to gamble with suited connectors a little more. Going by feel, it feels like I get a good flop about one time in 10.

What do you suppose the odds are if you add in flopped two pair or trips as well?

PairTheBoard

[Sterno]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but just because it's a 4.2-1 chance pre-flop of getting a decent draw doesn't mean you're getting 4.2-1 pot odds... wouldn't you have to multiply that with the odds of actually completing the draw post-flop?

[BugsBunny]

Bruce will hopefully correct this if it's wrong, but here's what I came up with if you include:

Flush draws, including made flushes
OESD, including made straights
2 pair or boat
trips
quads

using TJs

flopped flush draw, including made flushes and straight-flushes.
C(11,2)*48/19600 = .1346938776

flopped 2 of a kind not including boats.
6*3*44/19600 = 0.0404081633

flopped 3 of a kind, including boats and quads
6*2*48/19600 = 0.0293877551

OESD + made straights. possible combos: 89, 9Q, QK
where neither card is a flush card:
3*3*48/19600 (3 sets) = .066122449

where 1 of the 2 cards is a flush card and neither of the other 2 is
2*3*38/19600 (3 sets) = .0348979592

Total = 0.3055102042 or 2.2732130916 to 1 against

I still wouldn't overplay these. Remember that you still have to make your hand (in most cases) even if you get the draw. Also with some of the hands at least you're subject to redraws or better hands being out there.

Edited to correct a duplication error.

[BugsBunny]

flopped flush draw, including made flushes and straight-flushes.
C(11,2)*48/19600 = .1346938776

flopped 2 of a kind not including boats.
6*3*44/19600 = 0.0404081633
should be
3*3*44/19600 = 0.0202040816

flopped 3 of a kind, including boats and quads
6*2*48/19600 = 0.0293877551

OESD + made straights. possible combos: 89, 9Q, QK
where neither card is a flush card:
3*3*48/19600 (3 sets) = .066122449

where 1 of the 2 cards is a flush card and neither of the other 2 is
2*3*38/19600 (3 sets) = .0348979592

so the (hopefully) correct answer is:
Total = 0.2853061226 or 2.5050071516 to 1 against

[Trix]

Old thread (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=278584&page=0&view =expanded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[steamboatin]

They just told it on WPT show, 76-1 for making a straight and if I remember correctly 116-1 for the flush.

[university]

[ QUOTE ]
They just told it on WPT show, 76-1 for making a straight and if I remember correctly 116-1 for the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a joke, right?

[steamboatin]

No , but they did specify hearts so that increases the odds. you are less likely to make a specic flush than any possible flush.

the question was if you had 5h,6h where you odds better for making the straight or the flush? The answer was the straight.