Powerball Lottery

[papa smurf]

What mathematical strategies are there to improve chances of winning ?

[SossMan]

Stop smokin' hash w/ the other smurfs.

[asdf1234]

Buy every possible combination and pray that you don't end up splitting it.

[papa smurf]

i know i really cant win but i was thinking i could increase my odds of winning. Nothing is truely random after all.

[BeerMoney]

The only reasonable strategy I've heard of is to bet numbers that other people won't. This improves your chances of NOT splitting it. So, don't pick numbers that are common birthdays.. Like 1-12, for months, 1-31 for days.

BeerMoney
Look Drunk, Play Drunk

[papa smurf]

i was hoping some MIT geek would post some super algerithm to improve my chances from 1 in 120 million to 1 in 50 million.lol still a long shot, but..

[toots]

How to double your odds of winning:

Buy two tickets instead of one.

[Warik]

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What mathematical strategies are there to improve chances of winning ?

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Not playing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
i was hoping some MIT geek would post some super algerithm to improve my chances from 1 in 120 million to 1 in 50 million.lol still a long shot, but..

[/ QUOTE ]
im no mit grad, but i can devise a strategy to increase your chances from 1 in 120 million to 1 in 10 million
ill only charge you $50
let me know

[fluff]

[ QUOTE ]
i was hoping some MIT geek would post some super algerithm to improve my chances from 1 in 120 million to 1 in 50 million.lol still a long shot, but..

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need an MIT geek for that: buy 3 tickets.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
What mathematical strategies are there to improve chances of winning ?

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I don't know how "Powerball" differs from the common lotteries in which you choose 6 numbers out of 49 or so. The following may need to be adapted if there are significant differences.

If you want to analyze a lottery seriously, you need to understand the real rate of return, which is not easy to calculate. Here are a few things to analyze:

/images/graemlins/spade.gifWhat is the real value of the jackpot? The advertised jackpot may be the nominal value of the payouts over many years, possibly twice the present value. $10 million in the prize fund, invested very conservatively in bonds by the lottery, may mean an advertised jackpot of $12 million, with a present value of $6-8 million before any taxes.

/images/graemlins/spade.gifIn case you win, what is your expected share of the jackpot? If you only buy one ticket, you should avoid birthdays and geometric patterns on the ticket, but I'm not sure how large that effect is. If you assume that combinations are chosen randomly, it is easier to analyze your expected share, which should be a lower bound if you choose your ticket well. The probability that someone wins is 1-(1-p)^(number of tickets), where p is the probability a ticket wins. Your fair share is

jackpot*(probability someone wins)/(# tickets sold)

This means you need to estimate the number of other tickets sold. If there is a jackpot rolled over from the previous week, you can look at the difference between this week's advertised jackpot and the previous week's, noting that perhaps a quarter of the price of a ticket goes into the jackpot but the jackpot is advertised to be larger than the money going in. For example, if the jackpot is announced to be $12 million more than last week, that may mean $10 million is going in, so that there are 40 million other tickets.

Because the number of tickets sold increases dramatically when a jackpot gets vey large, medium-sized jackpots (under $100 million) may give the best rate of return.

/images/graemlins/spade.gifHow much does it cost to buy each ticket? Of course, there is a nominal price, but if you are buying many you may be able to work out a deal with a ticket vendor, who often gets 5%. A more important issue if you are buying millions of tickets is to figure out a good logistical system. Keep in mind that if you buy many tickets, you will end up claiming many tiny prizes. Will it cost you an extra $0.10 of hassle to deal with each ticket?

Millions of tickets? If it is worthwhile to buy n tickets, then it is worthwhile to buy n+1, except perhaps if n is a multiple of the number of combinations, such as 0. So if you are going to buy 1 ticket, you should buy all combinations. Each distinct combination gives you the same share of everyone else's money (assuming that they choose randomly), but when you buy more tickets you get more of your own money back.

Some groups have bought all or a large fraction of the combinations for some lotteries. See this article (http://www.betasia.com/betasia/articles.asp?ID=7&language=) on Stefan Mandel's activities. I've looked over some of his promotional materials, and I am not convinced that he knows what he is doing.

[daryn]

oh, so you're one of those "nothing is truly random after all" losers. i got news for you, it doesn't matter. that's like saying you can never really make a measurement, because the act of measuring something changes it's position and momentum slightly. but for macroscopic systems it just doesn't matter.

[papa smurf]

this isn't quantum mechanics.
someone i know had a friend in college who has hit a few of them.its unlikley you could calculate the jackpot at 1:120 mil but you could get the smaller prizes at odds of 1:500,000 Hes a brainy geek who does things like this for fun. but this has been years ago so i dont know if he is still doing it , so /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
and /images/graemlins/tongue.gif again