How much "swing" to expect

[TxSteve]

hi all..

ok...party 2/4

i'm about 7000 hands in (i know..it's a small sample)

over the first 4K hands or so, my cards are on fire..every tptk holds up...draws are hitting...etc. etc. and i'm up 150bb or so

then the bottom falls out...cards go cold on me...and i catch a lot of second best hands which i call down with

i also notice a downward trend in my play (ie i start making bad decision etc.)

over the next 2K hands i lose about 150bb (so i'm back to the beginning)

now..i know for a fact my bad play was a factor in the losing streak...i played too loose...refused to get away from hands...looked at a lot of turns with mid pair when the pot didn't justify it etc.

i'm finding that giving myself a "brush up" course by re-reading some books is helping me get back on track and feel more comfortable again..

but my question is....when playing well...how much of a swing can be expected?

thanks for any input...is there anything more frustrating than knowing i could have minimized my losses during a bad run of cards...but instead i chose to play like an idiot and donate to my fellow players?

[Bob T.]

Check the archives, I think this one gets discussed about every 2 months.

For LOW LIMIT players, I would say that 100 big bet swings probably happen to almost every winning player, that is only about a dozen average sized pots, and you would have to believe that you could at some point have a swing where you were ran a dozen pots below expectation. Even worse, it is only five monster pots, and you might go a while seeing all those monster pots go the other way.

It seems that almost noone has a 200 big bet swing unless they are either very close to breakeven player, or they play a very volatile game.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[bicyclekick]

I've had 2 12k streaks of [censored] now.

One 250BB downswing at 2/4 when I didn't really know how to play that well.

Since I've had 2 or 3 100's and more 50's then i can count.

[tripdad]

party 2/4 is too damn tight right now. 1/2 is even worse.that's the problem. i've moved to greener 3/6 pastures.

cheers!

[Joe826]

This is related in a round about way, but i've been having tremendous inter-session swings. These last few days i've been up $XXX and then down $XXX and then ending either up or down $XXX heh. I'm still coming out on top but it's really hard to get use to. It probably has something to do with the new limit (3/6) and/or playing more aggressively. I either didn't have them as much at 2/4 or they didn't bug me. Are these sort of swings normal?

[Homer]

Check out the "Streaks" thread from a couple months back.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
party 2/4 is too damn tight right now. 1/2 is even worse.that's the problem. i've moved to greener 3/6 pastures.

cheers!

[/ QUOTE ]

3/6 is even tighter still. I don't understand.

[MrBlini]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems that almost noone has a 200 big bet swing unless they are either very close to breakeven player, or they play a very volatile game.

[/ QUOTE ]I guess I have a volatile game these days, because I'm well beyond the breakeven player point long term. Short term, I'm at about -154 big bets at various limits between 3/6 and 15/30 right now, but that was after an incredibly good run in the other direction last weekend that more than covered this downswing. Even if the runup hadn't covered the drop, my bankroll would have taken care of me. That's what it's for.

I have been playing in some incredibly soft games lately. A good friend of mine pointed out that good returns often come with much higher variance, even at the same betting limits.

[sthief09]

does anyone else find it refreshing to read a post where someone actually admits he's the reason for a cold streak and not aliens tapping his brainwaves?

[TxSteve]

thanks sthief...

i'm just looking for answers/help/encouragement...

can't expect to get those if i'm not honest about the situation...

one of my biggest issues right now is not dumping AK or AQ when the flop misses me....i couldn't even call it a leak...more like a spigot

[gamboolman]

200 BB swings are common for me at micro limits. But as one poster said below, this is probably a indication of poor play on my part. The schooling effect is real and can be extremely brutal. I have had one -400 swing and a couple of -300 swings. I am a barely a winning player over the last couple of years, but I doubt that I will be making a living off of poker any time soon.

[TxSteve]

hey gamboolman...

yeah...i have no intention of making a living at it either...though i do want to keep improving..

saw your location...i grew up in spring....went to klein high school..now i'm in the woodlands..small world

[Bob T.]

You still have to find another 50 BBs before you get to 200.

I've experienced 150 bB downswings, but fortunately, it has been a long time, but the 100 BB slides still seem to occur with some regularity.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[vienna68]

Do not play too long on the same table when you are stuck - you get a bad image - change the table if you lost 10xBB - there are so many other tables there :-) (maybe with worse player too - or luckier cards!) - and tight up a little bit -

Best regards from Vienna

[Bob T.]

I disagree, if it is a good table, and you have good position, then it is worth sticking around for a little while even if you are running bad. This is also one reason that you buy in for more than the standard buy in, you will look like you have been winning even if you are behind at the moment.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[vienna68]

Personally, I agree with you (i always buy-in for at least 25xBB), but my answer was in the specific situation Steve was in. It helps sometimes to refocus yourself on a new table. For me it's also a "steam off" since I have not to see someone I took a bad beat against .-)

BR
Vienna

[Joe826]

Wow i'm opposite, if someone gets a bad beat against me I try to raise them out of every hand /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[vienna68]

Well I just prefer to win .-)
there are too many wars going on anyway

[Joe826]

Winning is overrated. But to the point, I usually make myself stay at a table if it's good even if i've taken some beats, it will eventually pay-off. Today I had some pretty bad ones on a specific table and then I got to cap the turn and river with the nuts a few hands later.