15-30 at party, does anyone win?

[BK1248]

Im a decent, not great, ABC player averging 1.03 bb an hour over the last 27 months, granted against very weak competition in the 10-20 at Foxwoods, Borgata and Taj.
At Party I was up 4k, lost it all, back up 5k, lost it all and 1500 and lost it back. My question is that do you guys who do well in brick and mortar succeed at Party, and do you think the game is legit. I am exactly even after only 2 months of playing, although I play a lot of hours. Thank you.

[SinCityGuy]

If you are a good, solid player, you should be able to beat the Party 15/30. Based on what you stated about your B&M winrate, you probably fit into this category.

You must realize that the swings can be massive in the Party 15/30 games. Last night, I lost 70BB in four hours. It happens. I play two tables at once, but there are many others who play between four to eight tables at once. For them, losing 50BB in 20 minutes is not uncommon.

If the losing affects your play, then it will start to become a self-fullfilling prophecy. You must treat every hand on its own merit, without regard to what happened last hand or ten hands ago.

If you are a winning player, the long run will take care of all of the bumps in the road.

[MMMMMM]

Yes, Party 15 is quite beatable, but there are 3 things you must realize.

If you are used to 10-20 you must adjust properly to the typically greater aggression and the larger small blind structure in 15-30. This is true whether you play B&M 15 or Party 15.

You must wonder how much of your win rate in B & M is due to getting certain "at the table" tells or intuitions.

You must realize that online, more than a few players develop a good book of your style and exploit your weaknesses better than they might in live play. This is due to keeping stats on you and looking at hand histories.

You might want to drop down to 10-20 online and see if you win better at that limit. Or you might want to move up to live 15 and see how you do there. I am a little curious why you chose to play 15 online but live you play 10. Many 10 players will encounter worse results initially when they change to 15 whether it is live or online. Actually many winning players routinely encounter diminished win rates whewnever they move up (for a while at least, assuming they can eventually beat the higher limit). Also, higher limits typically have lower win rates (in terms of fractions of a bet, not necessarily raw $) even for the winning players, although this might not necessarily be true between 10 and 15. Anyway good luck getting it all sorted out.

[SoBeDude]

Hi BK,

you really need to evaluate your play, and look for leaks in your game.

The Party 15 games are very beatable.

Also, I know several people who buy in, run up wins to 3-5K, then go bust, buy in again, run it up again, go bust, etc., etc. Of course the downswings are always followed by several sentences that include the phrases "the worst bad beats", and "bad luck".

These people are fish. Its easy for a bad player to go on a good run and rack up a quick nice chunk of change. But they always give it back.

Now I'm not saying you're in that category at all, but the pattern certainly sets off alarm bells than you need to evaluate your play.

Best of luck!

-Scott

[Tosh]

They are of course beatable but I know how you feel about the swings. No matter what you know about long run etc they can still be quite distressing.

[sthief09]

what's your SD at 15/30? this is directed at all of you who play 15/30? people always talk about the swings but I'm curious the actual SD.