$3/6 AKo hand

AsKh in mid late position, three callers, I raise. 5 or 6 opponents see the flop.


Flop: QsJs3h. Checked to me, I bet, last to act calls, one or two other callers, chinese woman to my immediate right check-raises. Your play?

I reraised since I was button greedy, planning to check the turn. Last to act folds as planned, rest fold too, Chinese woman 4-bets me and it´s heads-up. I call (at this point I notice that she has only got $2 left) .


Turn: Qd. She shows me QJ and bets her last $2, I muck. Next time I wont 3-bet with that sort of hand after a player check-raises the whole field (sigh).

Smells like a flush draw, maybe flush and open ended. I strongly consider 3-betting to give my pair outs a better chance of holding up. The time to do this is now and not on the turn, since you would like AJ, KJ to fold. Yes, if she has a hand like 9sTs you are a slight dog, but the pot is large and compensates you for this. In addition, you might be able to take a free card on the turn. Having the Ace of trump adds good value here.


Off to results again!

"Next time I won't 3-bet"


Why? This is being results oriented in the extreme. The fact that she was almost all-in makes 3-betting even more correct. Relax, they won't always have top 2, and even when they do, you have a substantial # of outs, especially if the turn card brings you any help.

3-betting a check-raiser with two overcards, a gutshot straight draw, and a backdoor flush draw!?!?!?


I may not play aggressively enough, but I'm _much_ more inclined to fold than re-raise after this turn of events. I think you have to call because of the pot odds, but...


More than likely, you would have heard from AA or KK preflop (either raise or limp-raise after you pop it). QQ almost has to be raised preflop here, but I could see JJ-77 being smooth-called preflop. She could have some permutation of AK or AQs (AQo gets raised here, I would think). Limping with AJ is reasonable, as is limping with KQ, KJs, QJ, JT, and T9.


On that flop, what of that is she going to check-raise with? Not with any draws save Ts9s, more than likely. She could check-raise with JJ, QJ, and AQ (I'm assuming she'd lead out with any other flush or T9 draw, as well as middle/top and any pocket pair lower than jacks, and would check and call with anything else). That's 3 possible AQs, 3 possible JJ, and 9 possible QJ combinations - 15 to 1 possible Ts9s.


If I'm calculating everything right, you've got a 19% chance of being a 7-to-3 dog against AQ, a 19% chance of being a 5-to-1 dog against JJ, a 56% chance of being a 3-to-1 dog against QJ, and a 6% chance of being a 11-to-9 dog against Ts9s. By my rudimentary calculations, that's a 3-to-1 dog overall.


If my thinking is mistaken here, please tell me what I'm missing.


Big John

Any flush draw would (correctly) checkraise the field here. I know I would, and I know that most asian women in LL Cali games would as well.


Folding is out of the question, the pot is huge.

I don't know that I've ever check-raised a flop with just a flush draw. That may be a failing in my game, but...


Let's assume for argument's sake that she would check-raise any flush draw, and would play any suited A and any suited zero or one-gapper. By my count, that's 14 hands, 11 of which AKo is a 6-to-5 favorite and 3 of which AKo is a 3-to-1 dog (any hand including a 3). AKo gets 49% of the equity in these cases - not even a money favorite against one opponent. Combine that with the 16 previous possible checkraising hands and that makes AKo about a 5-to-3 dog. You want to re-raise with that?


Big John

A critical purpose of the 3-bet is to drive out the opponents behind you to ensure that just spiking an Ace or King will give you a winning hand (You may get AJ to fold). It also dramatically increases your chances of winning with just Ace-high.


You are focussing too much on how AK plays heads-up against the various hands the raiser could hold. When the pot becomes large, you should be willing to put in the extra bet in order to increase your chances of winning the entire pot.

John,


There are about 18sbs in the pot when it comes back to you for 1 more sb. Obviously, this is an overlay for a non-flush gutshot alone. And if the turn is the spade, you have a redraw if she does in fact have the flush. You are calling for sure.


Anyways, since we are talking about headsup equity, if your raise can get it headsup, you BOTH benefit because of the large amount of dead money in the pot. So for the cost of raising one sb (which still is correct since your b/d flush is worth 2 outs, thats a 5 outer at 9-1 and a shot at getting the turn for free if desired) you chop up that 18sbs of cash with her.


It is unlikely for the hand to cost you more than 1.5bbs from here, meaning that if you get it headsup, you can be substantially WORSE than a 5/3 dog. Assuming the pot costs you 1.5bbs from here if she isn't close to all in...(you sometimes win more, when u hit, lose more if u catch a straight and payoff a flush, its about a wash)... then that is a 2BB investment into a 11 BB pot (18sbs +her 2BBs.) You only need to win about 15% of the time to show a profit.


Dead money is a powerful thing. This hand is an excellent example of where one should ask oneself if you should be raising when considering calling.

I think this is a good example of a situation in which there are probably a number of options on how to play a hand that are not "right" or "wrong" within themselves. I understand Clarks reasoning and don't disagree with how he would play the hand. Given that caveat with the additon that he probably has several hundred hours of live holdem than me....


i would just call the checkraise on the flop. My thinking is this

1) The checkraise screams big hand. two pair, q with an ace kicker, or trips. (I agree with John R, I have never seen a checkraise with a draw in low limit holdem.

2)I think that more of the value of this hand now rest with the draws than with hitting an ace or king. given that, I am not sure I am totally unhappy with one or two other callers.

3) Her checkraise might very well clear the rest of the field without me raising.

4) Occasionally, a queen or jack will fall such as happened here making a fold an easy play.

I don't see reraising automatically chasing AJ away but it's probably worth a shot and probably what I would do given the backdoor possibility. Next question: if she 3-bets (which could mean set, AQ, two-pair or the flush draw), do you cap it?

Your raise of her is a 3-bet. Her subsequent raise would be a 4-bet, and frequently that is a cap.


Happily, everyone here did fold to the 2 cold. If someone cold called, I would put them on a straight or flush draw rather than AJ. I would call at that point.

Well, there's a mammoth hole in my game. I've read HEPFAP a couple times (including the chapter on raising with the second-best hand), but I guess it never really sunk in.


Mathematically, it makes perfect sense to re-raise if you're guaranteed to limit the field to yourself and the raiser. There even ought to be a formula that calculates the confidence percentage required to make the play profitable. However, it seems that this play increases variance while increasing expectation even if it works. Is there some quick rule of thumb for estimating increases in variance in relation to pot size, bet size, and confidence in limiting the field?


(Gawd...I'm not asking for much, am I? /images/wink.gif)


Big John

I know that players going all in often waste the last bit of their money, but she played relatively well (which I could have added), so when she check-raises the whole field when she couldn´t expect anyone to drop, this strongly indicates a very good hand to me.


Therefore just calling could be pretty ok since a lone pair of aces or kings isn´t going to win this pot for me anyway and I need to hit my ten or runner-runner, in which case I do not want to shut out the other players by 3-betting (unless she is on a four-flush, but that´s about the only hand where 3-betting is good for me).